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Adriatik
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« on: January 24, 2009, 10:13:09 AM »
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Can we take adwantage of the fact that ewery decent system goes in positive at least for some time before it run down in -

one idea : is there posybility to calculate what would be optimal goal for specific system an what would be optimal pont in loss where we should stop ?

Or could we make system that should go in positive ewery or almost ewery time we start to play in not too large nuber of spins. And then we can reset it ewry time we have win or even +0

I am thinking about flat bet here !
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TwoCatSam
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« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2009, 12:47:57 PM »
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Adriatik

Quote:  (my blue)

Can we take adwantage of the fact that ewery decent system goes in positive at least for some time before it run down in -

Close quote.

Is this a true fact?  What is a decent system?

Sam
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Adriatik
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« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2009, 03:12:52 PM »
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TwoCatSam,

I am not shure that is fact but it seems to me, when I am looking at graphs of testing in RNG or when I hand test my systems, that almost ewery decent system goes to + for some period !

Decent system - one that looks good in the begining but like ewery playable system it loses in long term
Nondecent system - one that we can tell it is losers system from begining !


this is brain storming so we can talk about ideas (not real facts)  ........   Cheesy
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TwoCatSam
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2009, 06:19:10 PM »
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Adriatik

Ideas are good!  That word "fact" just threw me!  Some say there are no facts in roulette, except that you always lose.

I agree, it seems like they all go up at first.  When I play the G.U.T. I sometimes go down 100 units before I hit a win.  I do try to quit when I'm up a bit for the session/trot.  There is surely a time to know when to quit.

Sam
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Adriatik
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2009, 05:09:49 AM »
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I try to involve this idea in one simple system I called 1,2,3 system. It is posted in systems page.... what do you think Sam ?
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TwoCatSam
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2009, 08:00:25 AM »
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I will answer there.
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ChickenDinner
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2009, 07:36:20 PM »
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I know where you're coming from Adriatik .

I've never tried this (yet), but  as so many mechanical style systems seem to have these quite predictable hot and cold runs (everyone's got their personal win/lose averages) , is it not worth betting against a system after you've a good run. Eg, after winning say 5 sessions in a row, continue with it, but instead bet that it will lose for the next few sessions (but be ready to switch back if need be). Might work well on the LWs, for example. Puts the human back into the mechanical. Just a thought.  Wink
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Rudy
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2009, 03:47:03 PM »
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Quote from: Adriatik on January 24, 2009, 10:13:09 AM
Can we take adwantage of the fact that ewery decent system goes in positive at least for some time before it run down in -



Not necessarily, I tested the 1,2,3  system the other day.

http://vlsroulette.com/full-systems/1-2-3-system/

My test failed on the fourth series, 36 spins with 29 uniques, a very rare event, but one which came up straight away.

The reason systems appear to work for a while is that a series of bets with a small target and a relatively large bankroll or stop/loss is effectively one large odds on bet.

Using the good old Martingale as an example, a 9 step Martingale would require a 511 unit bank to win 1 unit. This is effectively placing a 511unit bet at odds of 511 to 1 on.  The zero makes the real odds just over 400 to 1 on, which is why the casinos win, of course, but even with a 400 to 1 chance of winning, the chances are that you'd win over just a few series.

If everyone on here were to risk 511 units playing Martingale for 10 series, the chances are that we'd win them all and walk off with 10 units, BUT that 1 in 400 chance can come at any time, even on the first series, or worse still, turn up twice in quick succession.


So yes, systems will show a profit early in MOST cases, because the chance of just a few series wins is still odds on, but that's not guaranteed, and the proportion of risk to return will be very high.

Regards,

Rudy
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Adriatik
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2009, 03:16:29 AM »
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Very good post Rudy, good explanitions tnx !
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