The Cycles

"The answer lies in the cycles.

Let me remind you how to measure roulette cycles: 36 / dived by / Amount of numbers covered
For instance: when covering an even chance (say red), you are covering 18 numbers. So you have 36/18 = 2 spins. The cycle for an even chance is 2 spins long.

Actually roulette don't care how you are covering those numbers: if it is one unit on red, or backing 3 double-streets, 6 streets… or a dozen and 2 streets.. it is the same. As long as you are covering 18 numbers it follows the same raw rules for the cycles.

The most amounts of hits will be enclosed within 3 cycles.
The prudent timeline player who is tracking a certain 18-number group will then compute:

Cycle for 18 numbers = 2 spins long x 3 cycles = 6 spins max. to hold a bet before calling it clearly “experiencing dispersion of hits”.

If no hits within 3 cycles, then it is time to “go virtual”. Tracked location is clearly experiencing dispersion of hits and the smart player knows it is time to “let it go”.

It can end up as deviated as the location wishes to be. We don't and won't ever fight that.

How deep can a losing streak for a betting location go? it could continue ad infinitum as roulette pockets never close.

In an “infinite sample” there are 1000 reds in a row, 100.000 reds in a row, etc… All of the combinations possible realized… But we are mortals. We won't bet an infinite sample. As simple as that!

There is the “law of reality”: our play time is delimited by sessions, and yet the adding of all those sessions is finite.

Then how do we measure the maximum length for a realistic losing streak?

Manrique mentions about 20 times the cycle as the wall most “casino betting humans” will never see the wheel go past. -Of course, computer simulations can!, but we are talking about people playing and actually experiencing the game at the casino.

Back to the computations of the cycle.

18 numbers, an even chance location. 36 / 18 = 2 spins (cycle) x 20 = 40 spins.

This means an actual “casino player” will hardly witness 40 blacks or 40 reds in a row in his whole lifetime. This is the “lifetime limit” enclosing most humans.

For a dozen it is 36 / 12 = 3 (spins per cycle) x 20 = 60 spins. Hardly wouldthe regular casino player see a dozen miss 60 consecutive times in his lifetime.

It spreads across every betting location.

We can measure how long is current losing streak for a location (and for us), and we can see clearly when we see two or more losing streaks come together (measuring the gap between hits and measuring the total appearances vs ideal number of them), but we can't be 100% sure on how large the losing streak will be in full… but (and this is a big BUT) we can do our best to handle it as smart as possible: after we spot we are facing dispersion of hits as per discussed measuring rules, we either enter virtual and do not bet or flat bet the minimum possible while this losing streak lasts.

Think a bit. Casino is simply a “reversed player” with an edge (he always bets symmetrically against us: we bet black, he bets red + 0, his edge), thing is: as any other player he doesn’t know how long will current losing streak be to him, therefore <I>casino's losing streak is our winning streak</I>, this means there is uncertainty both sides of the table on how long is really the maximum length of current winning and losing streak. Their advantage comes from the extra 2.7% in their favor which guarantees in the long run they will get back on top; we have -2.7 less hit ratio with relation to the casino, but that doesn’t mean there is no space for concentration of hits our way -the winning streak!-. It simply means our winning streaks will be -2.7 shorter than the ones from the casino.

The disk doesn’t know how much is layed on the felt, this is up for us to determine, and this is what will determine how deep are we affected when getting dispersion and how much we squeeze when having “our time”, the moment of concentration of wins.

Manrique’s “Lose less when losing and Win more when winning” translates practically into this. Once we spot we are in a losing streak we turn ourselves into “dispersion surfing” mode (I.e. after 3 missed cycles, it is clear we are facing dispersion). As we don't know how long will we be facing this dispersion state the best we can do is manage our money to receive the less impact from it.

At one hand there is the wins/loss registry for the betting location or system we are tracking, on the other hand it is the registry for our actual money activity.

This is why tracking is so important. First thing we do is to never back a location that is facing dispersion. I.e. “Red” has been missing for 6 spins, we never back it further as we don't know if the run of black will amount to 40, we never know, and we never back these locations.

Also we must keep track of the win/loss registry of our real-money activity. Regardless of the bet selection or the method used as a guide, there is a reality which needs to have its own registry too: the outcomes of our actually layed bets. They sure count.
What do we do after we have missed 3 cycles and determine we are clearly facing dispersion? We flat bet the minimum, as we don't know how large will the casino get its winning streak. As long as it keeps uncertain, we keep on flat-betting the min. to maximize our chance of still having bankroll to try the recovery of these units.

Once hits are flowing more regularly for our personal registry, then and only then we can take some risks.

This is the astute player's formula.

We use systems/selections as a guide. We only enter using the selection/system when it is hitting, we only hold our bets there at the statistical attack zone, which is where the big fat belly of distribution of hits usually is. If dispersion for the system/guide concatenates then it is clearly to us we as users of the system start facing dispersion and it automatically gets us in dispersion-surfing mode.

We will experience the worst dispersion of hits when the system's dispersion concatenates and this SITUATION is seen as cristal-clear as pure water, so we are never taken off-guard. As strategic players we know exactly where we are at every moment, and act accordingly. Risking only when hit rate is propitious, never holding bets beyond what being cautious dictates and lowering the amount bet to the minimum or not betting at all when it simply isn't our time to hit.

In the end, we want to be the players to be there when concentration of hits manifests, taking advantage of it in full, for as long as hit rate keeps good and the not-to-be-seen players backing a location when dispersion of hits is clear for it, and lastly, be the little-time losers when dispersion manifests for our own personal timeline of events."

Victor

Riding Concentration

"Streaks. We don't know how long will they last, but we do know this:

- Winning streaks start with a concentration of hits, meaning two instances of hits within a cycle. From 2 spins in a row at the even chance level, to 2 times within 37 spins at that a single straight-up hot number, all winning streaks start like this.
- Losing streaks start with a missed cycle, even the longest sleeping numbers first had to miss 37 spins.

Granted, not every concentration of hits starts a winning streak; but as every winning streak starts with a concentration of hits, they make the entry-point to ride them. In full. This means "leeching" it till hits drop to their standard rate or skips a cycle.

As closure, that is another way to face it. Waiting for a concentration of hits at a system/location, entering and if no success within 1 cycle, then drop the system/location. This is used by those tracking several systems/events for jumping from the current hot one to the other. Of course, even in this 1-cycle approach the measuring and acting properly is the same for the actual-bets win/lose registry. 3 missed cycles = clearly facing dispersion. It doesn't matter if at first you started with an even-chance system, then jumped to another covering dozens and then saw another with corners. The measure is the same in "missed number", like this:

Missed 2 spins at the even chance system = 18 numbers x 2 = 36 => A cycle.
After that you missed 3 spins at the dozens = 12 numbers x 3 = 36 = 2nd cycle.
Then missed 9 spins at the corners = 4 numbers x 9 = 36 => 3rd missed cycle.

These are techniques used by multi-system people. It is another whole world and topic, but the way to deal with the real-money registry, spotting dispersion times and acting accordingly is roughly the same."

Victor