Hi guys! First of all I just wanted to thank all of the members here that constantly try to bring something interesting to this forum. I have to admit that this is by far a very fascinating forum and I find it very impressive to see how many people are trying together to finally beat the house. Who knows? Maybe someday magic will happen.
In the meantime I have something appealing to post here. I have been trying out a strategy in a land based casino near my city and to be honest I have been more than surprised with the results. Now I said to myself that it's time to share with others my experience. Now I want to specify that I'm not here to represent any casino nor I am here to sell any kind of advertising casino crap. . . All I want is to discuss and verify with you people (perhaps someone could write it to test it for millions of spins) if my strategy might bring a possible small return in the long term. Obviously no system can win EVERYTIME. To be profitable we only need to win in the long run.
Well here I go! By the way the following explanations are done so that even a six years old could understand. Near two months ago I posted a bit of my thoughts concerning standard deviation but it never went somewhere. Now I have been trying this for a while (not too long unfortunately) and I have to say it has been a very positive experience. Before starting to actually explain what my system is all about I believe it's imperative that I talk a bit about what standard deviation truly is for those having question marks in their minds right about this second.
Standard deviation is simply a factor or a value if you prefer that determines the deviation from a standard event. In other words, it helps establishing how much variation there is from an average or a mean. It is mostly used in the world of statistics but could easily be useful in lots of fields and I believe it could bring an advantage in the game of roulette. Why should we care about standard deviation??? Well we should give a special attention to it because it is the tool that will guide us into think is this truly a bad streak that I'm having or is this normal? How many of you have though that a table was rigged simply because two zeros came out in a row when you were obviously expecting a BLACK or a RED number to fall? I don't know about you but I have. To be honest I'm only 22 years old and when I first started playing in a casino (4 years ago) I didn't know what I was doing. With standard deviation we know how many times a zero, a dozen, a black number, a red number and all the others sections should fall. In other words, we learn to expect. You might say that in the game of roulette the past does not influence the future and you're right because it doesn't but I would have to say that in the long run that is no longer true. Numbers do follow a certain pattern and I understand that it's not because 13 reds in a row came in that it automatically means a black will follow, but one thing is sure (unless the table is rigged) eventually a black will come because it's the law of averages.
Well enough said! The best way to explain something is by demonstrating it with an example.
This is what I meant by expecting what should fall:
Standard deviation in its simplest form has a formula that is: the number of events multiplied by the chance that the event has of happening and multiplied again by the chance that the event has of NOT happening. Everything squared root gives us the first level of standard deviation.
Example #1:
Lets say that we would like to calculate how many times every dozen is expected to fall in 12 spins. Well this is very simple.
Number of events: 12 spins
Chance of happening: 12/37
Chance of not happening: 25/37
Formula: √[12*(12/37)*(25/37)] = 1. 6216
There we go it is as simple as that! The number above represents the first degree or level in the standard deviation. There could be as many levels as you would like but mainly the most common ones are the first 3. Each one represents a percentage and that is when it becomes useful. The first level is 68%, the second is 95% and the third is 99. 7%.
Notice that when I first started explaining what the standard deviation was I mentioned the words ''variation from an average''. In this case the average would be how many times each and every dozen is expected to fall.
Mean: 12*(12/37) = 3. 8918
Now we must take into consideration that if there was no zero it would simply be 12/3= 4 but since we have 37 numbers and NOT 36 (something people tend to forget) the result is a slight lower than 4. Furthermore, if we want to know how many times should each dozen fall in 12 spins we simply add and subtract the deviation to the mean which in this case is 1. 6216.
3. 8918 - 1. 6216 = 2. 2702 ≈ 2
3. 8918 + 1. 6216 = 5. 5134 ≈ 6
This means that 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins. If we were to calculate the second one (95%) we would only need to multiply 1. 6216 by 2 and finally if we were to calculate the third one (99,7%) we would only need to multiply 1. 6216 by 3.
Ok now that we have formally established what a standard deviation is lets get into the details of how I use it to make money. First of all I would like to mention that I'm not a person who likes to gamble, what I am is a person who likes making money. There is a HUGE difference. This means that whether I win or lose I treat this as a business and not as a ''lucky day'' at the casino. I always know in advance how much I am willing to lose and I also have a limit in my mind of much I will win before I leave. I believe that the majority of humans (myself included of course) have what I call a thirst for money and for the feeling of being wealthy and when winning that thirst increases and consequently affects our judgement making us vulnerable. The moment we stop being rational is the moment the real bad streak starts and that is why I never stop going by the book. If you have a system follow it to the very core and stick to it.
The system :
First of all I would like to mention that I lose very often, but I still win in the long term which is the only thing that truly matters. In fact I lose so often that it comes near to 32% of the time. To create my system I first calculated the first standard deviation for dozens and rows and found out that every 5 spins 68 % of the time each dozen or row will fall between 1 and 3 times. I then said to myself that I could start betting on a dozen that has been missing for two spins and then I could start betting and that's exactly what I did.
68% of the time between 1 and 3 also means that 32% of the time each dozen or row will fall between 0 times or more than 3 times every 5 spins. So for example if I want to bet on a single dozen I wait to have at least two dozens and then I bet but never exceeding 5 spins. Lets pretend the following sequence: ***(The following numbers refer to the dozen and the actual number)
1, 1, 2, 0, 3
In this scenario I would have win because it falls under the 68% category. Dozen #1, #2 and #3 all came up between 1 and 3 times in 5 spins. I would have started betting on dozen #3 after the third spin because dozen #1 and #2 had fall previously. Next sequence:
2, 2, 2, 3, 2
In this scenario I would have lost because it falls under the 32% category. Dozen #1 didn't show up once in 5 spins and not to mention that dozen #2 fell more than 3 times. I would have started betting on dozen #1 after the fourth spin because #2 and #3 had fall previously. Next sequence:
1,1,1,1,1
In this scenario I would not bet but it would still be in the 32% category since dozen #1 fell more than 3 times and dozen #2 and #3 never came out. Since no other dozen was there I did not bet.
As you can see, sometimes it's neutral, sometimes I lose (less than 32%) but most of the time (68%) I win. Now the second most important part of this system is the betting. Even tough I win over twice as much as I lose it's important to make sure the losses in the amount of money are not twice higher than the gains or else there is no profit left. You can bet as you want but I bet the following: (the casino I play have a minimum of 25$ per exterior bet)
The maximum that I bet is three times since I only bet after two dozens have shown their faces and I also stop betting once a fifth number is out. Therefore the sequence that expose me the most are those containing three bets.
First bet 25$
Second bet 25$
Third bet 100$
Like I said this system has been very profitable for me. When I win my first bet I have a profit of 50$. When I win my second bet I have a profit of 25$. Finally when I win my third bet I have a profit of 150$. On average you could say that when I win it's around 75$
When I lose the third bet it costs me 150$ which is exactly 2 times what I win. I am profitable only in the long term because even though I only make on average 75$ and lose 150$ I win 68% of the time and lose less than 32% of the time. Now lets pretend that I would lose 32% this would mean that I would win:
68/32 = 2. 125 times more often than I would lose. Therefore I win by 0. 125 which is more than enough. But it gets better!
When I only bet 2 times because a second dozen only showed up on the third spin I bet:
First bet 25$
Second bet 50$
Which means that on average I would win around 63$ profit and would lose only 75$ which is only 1. 2 times bigger. Now the difference is no longer 0. 125 but 0. 925 which is very attractive. And now even BETTER!
When I only bet 1 time because a second dozen only showed up on the fourth spin I bet:
First bet 25$
Which means that I would win 50$ profit and would lose only 25$ which is not even bigger than my win but in fact smaller. Risk ratio for this situation is 1:2 which means that for every dollar I risk I have a chance of winning two. That's a 200% return on investment.
Ok so now comment as much as you want. I think I have covered everything and if not. . . well I will have to write it in a separate post because I'm tired of writing and you must be tired of reading. I wish the best of luck to everyone and also NEVER EVER FORGET to be rational when betting or else you could lose it all in a glance, and never bet money you can't lose!
Cubano
PS: Please God let the criticism to come be a constructive one. . .
First standard deviation = 1.6216
There we go it is as simple as that! The number above represents the first degree or level in the standard deviation. There could be as many levels as you would like but mainly the most common ones are the first 3. Each one represents a percentage and that is when it becomes useful. The first level is 68%, the second is 95% and the third is 99.7%.
Notice that when I first started explaining what the standard deviation was I mentioned the words ''variation from an average''. In this case the average would be how many times each and every dozen is expected to fall.
Mean: 12*(12/37) = 3.8918
Now we must take into consideration that if there was no zero it would simply be 12/3= 4 but since we have 37 numbers and NOT 36 (something people tend to forget) the result is a slight lower than 4. Furthermore, if we want to know how many times should each dozen fall in 12 spins we simply add and subtract the deviation to the mean which in this case is 1.6216.
3.8918 - 1.6216 = 2.2702 ≈ 2
3.8918 + 1.6216 = 5.5134 ≈ 6
This means that 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins. If we were to calculate the second one (95%) we would only need to multiply 1.6216 by 2 and finally if we were to calculate the third one (99,7%) we would only need to multiply 1.6216 by 3.
Ok now that we have formally established what a standard deviation is lets get into the details of how I use it to make money. First of all I would like to mention that I'm not a person who likes to gamble, what I am is a person who likes making money. There is a HUGE difference. This means that whether I win or lose I treat this as a business and not as a ''lucky day'' at the casino. I always know in advance how much I am willing to lose and I also have a limit in my mind of much I will win before I leave. I believe that the majority of humans (myself included of course) have what I call a thirst for money and for the feeling of being wealthy and when winning that thirst increases and consequently affects our judgement making us vulnerable. The moment we stop being rational is the moment the real bad streak starts and that is why I never stop going by the book. If you have a system follow it to the very core and stick to it.
The system :
First of all I would like to mention that I lose very often, but I still win in the long term which is the only thing that truly matters. In fact I lose so often that it comes near to 32% of the time. To create my system I first calculated the first standard deviation for dozens and rows and found out that every 5 spins 68 % of the time each dozen or row will fall between 1 and 3 times. I then said to myself that I could start betting on a dozen that has been missing for two spins and then I could start betting and that's exactly what I did.
68% of the time between 1 and 3 also means that 32% of the time each dozen or row will fall between 0 times or more than 3 times every 5 spins. So for example if I want to bet on a single dozen I wait to have at least two dozens and then I bet but never exceeding 5 spins. Lets pretend the following sequence: ***(The following numbers refer to the dozen and the actual number)
1, 1, 2, 0, 3
In this scenario I would have win because it falls under the 68% category. Dozen #1, #2 and #3 all came up between 1 and 3 times in 5 spins. I would have started betting on dozen #3 after the third spin because dozen #1 and #2 had fall previously. Next sequence:
2, 2, 2, 3, 2
In this scenario I would have lost because it falls under the 32% category. Dozen #1 didn't show up once in 5 spins and not to mention that dozen #2 fell more than 3 times. I would have started betting on dozen #1 after the fourth spin because #2 and #3 had fall previously. Next sequence:
1,1,1,1,1
In this scenario I would not bet but it would still be in the 32% category since dozen #1 fell more than 3 times and dozen #2 and #3 never came out. Since no other dozen was there I did not bet.
As you can see, sometimes it's neutral, sometimes I lose (less than 32%) but most of the time (68%) I win. Now the second most important part of this system is the betting. Even tough I win over twice as much as I lose it's important to make sure the losses in the amount of money are not twice higher than the gains or else there is no profit left. You can bet as you want but I bet the following: (the casino I play have a minimum of 25$ per exterior bet)
The maximum that I bet is three times since I only bet after two dozens have shown their faces and I also stop betting once a fifth number is out. Therefore the sequence that expose me the most are those containing three bets.
First bet 25$
Second bet 25$
Third bet 100$
Like I said this system has been very profitable for me. When I win my first bet I have a profit of 50$. When I win my second bet I have a profit of 25$. Finally when I win my third bet I have a profit of 150$. On average you could say that when I win it's around 75$
When I lose the third bet it costs me 150$ which is exactly 2 times what I win. I am profitable only in the long term because even though I only make on average 75$ and lose 150$ I win 68% of the time and lose less than 32% of the time. Now lets pretend that I would lose 32% this would mean that I would win:
68/32 = 2.125 times more often than I would lose. Therefore I win by 0.125 which is more than enough. But it gets better!
When I only bet 2 times because a second dozen only showed up on the third spin I bet:
First bet 25$
Second bet 50$
Which means that on average I would win around 63$ profit and would lose only 75$ which is only 1.2 times bigger. Now the difference is no longer 0.125 but 0.925 which is very attractive. And now even BETTER!
When I only bet 1 time because a second dozen only showed up on the fourth spin I bet:
First bet 25$
Which means that I would win 50$ profit and would lose only 25$ which is not even bigger than my win but in fact smaller. Risk ratio for this situation is 1:2 which means that for every dollar I risk I have a chance of winning two. That's a 200% return on investment.
Ok so now comment as much as you want. I think I have covered everything and if not...well I will have to write it in a separate post because I'm tired of writing and you must be tired of reading. I wish the best of luck to everyone and also NEVER EVER FORGET to be rational when betting or else you could lose it all in a glance, and never bet money you can't lose!
Cubano
PS: Please God let the criticism to come be a constructive one...
Hi
Thanks for posting.
I guess the first question is:
Approximately how many spins have you played this for?
BTW you WILL get criticism in here so brace yourself. It will be along any time now....
The Spiders Kiss
Why be so paranoid about criticism ?? If a person likes to play a certain way so be it . If he believes in this method that`s his and only his choice alone. Only time will tell after spending time in the trenches. ( B & M Casino) and having put the "tochas ofn tish. " **.( money in action freely translated)
Nathan Detroit
** tochas ofn tish >>> A$$ on the table.
Hi Cubanopro,
Thanks for the details. But how do you do bet selection in this case, for example on dozens.
How to you pick which dozen may fall under 68% category.
If you can cut into smaller examples it will be great and we can test your theory. May be I did not get your theory correctly.
Quote from: The Spiders Kiss on September 13, 2010, 06:14:33 AM
Hi
Thanks for posting.
I guess the first question is:
Approximately how many spins have you played this for?
BTW you WILL get criticism in here so brace yourself. It will be along any time now....
The Spiders Kiss
Hi The Spider Kiss! Like I mentioned above by saying: unfortunately not too much experience. I would have to say now that it has been 6-7 months that I play 4 days a week approximately 1 hour or a bit more per session. Depending on nights (I usually don't go on very busy nights because it's very slow when too many people playing at the same time), I play around 25-30 spins per session. I would say that I have tested this system for around 3000 spins which like I said is not a lot... to test something it is critical that the sample size be big enough or else the results good or bad simply won't matter.
By the way guys lol I'm not afraid of criticism I jsut don't like when people start going over the line with insults and others comments saying they're system is not worth sh***... that's why I only ask for Constructive criticism that we keep a mutual respect.
Afterall it's not like I'm forcing people to use my system... lol do whatever you want. I'm just trying to do my part here for this community.
Cubano
Quote from: Allin on September 13, 2010, 10:57:58 AM
Hi Cubanopro,
Thanks for the details. But how do you do bet selection in this case, for example on dozens.
How to you pick which dozen may fall under 68% category.
If you can cut into smaller examples it will be great and we can test your theory. May be I did not get your theory correctly.
Hi Allin and thanks for your interest! I do not get to pick anything I simply know by fact that 68% of the time each dozen should fall between 1 and 3 times. That means that the minute I see two dozens show up I automatically start betting on the remaining and depending how far along we are on the sequence of 5 bets, the bets will differ. For example:
1,2
Now I have to bet.. I place 25$ on third dozen.
1,2,0
I lost but now I keep betting because the 5 spins are not over. We have only seen 3 numbers up until now. I now bet 25$ on the same dozen.
1,2,0,1
I lost again but I have to keep going till the fifth number is out. I now bet 100 $ on third dozen.
1,2,0,1,3
Now I won my bet! Notice that when the situation is part of the 68 % I always win. I repeat the sentence once again: 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times every 5 spins. Now let's check if that is true:
Dozen 1: 2 times in 5 spins
Dozen 2: 1 time in 5 spins
Dozen 3: 1 time in 5 spins
Since none of them fell more than 3 times or less than 1 time, it automatically falls under the 68% category and it's a sure win.
Cubano
Do you retrack on a win or loss or roll the results?
So u are betting with this progression: 1,1,2,3,4 ?So the loss will be 11 chips
It reminds me of the ZONE...and it was a loser like all systems
Hi Cubanopro,
Got it thanks.
Another query...
"1,2,0,1,3
Now I won my bet! Notice that when the situation is part of the 68 % I always win. I repeat the sentence once again: 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times every 5 spins. Now let's check if that is true:"
In the above example we have 2 series"
[1,2],0,1,3....Series 1
1,2,0,[1,3] ...Start bet middle/2nd dozen from here Series 2
Correct?
Let me calculate the average first then we move to Money management portion.
1)According to your experience(up and down of your deficit) what's the necessary total bankroll and the session bankroll in units?
Stop loss and stop win?
2)If I'm not mistaken you play always the three terms progression(1,1,4)because after two spins you have either two different columns or two differents dozen almost all the time. . . .
Thanks
Quote from: Far-Q on September 13, 2010, 11:52:13 AM
Do you retrack on a win or loss or roll the results?
I'm not sure what you mean by this but if what you are referring to is if I wait after a loss or win the answer is yes.
I always wait for the 5 spins to finish (loss or win).
Hope this clears up your question!
Cubano
Quote from: Jean-Claud on September 13, 2010, 12:04:36 PM
So u are betting with this progression: 1,1,2,3,4 ?So the loss will be 11 chips
It reminds me of the ZONE...and it was a loser like all systems
Hi, I'm sorry my friend but I do not know what you're talking about... When in my explanations did I ever mentioned something about losses of 11 chips? The progression I use is a very small one. It could either be 3 bets (25$, 25$ and 100$), 2 bets (25$, 50$) or 1 bet (no progression here).
But I still appreciate for taking the time to read my post.
Good day!
Cubano
Quote from: Allin on September 13, 2010, 12:34:12 PM
Hi Cubanopro,
Got it thanks.
Another query...
"1,2,0,1,3
Now I won my bet! Notice that when the situation is part of the 68 % I always win. I repeat the sentence once again: 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times every 5 spins. Now let's check if that is true:"
In the above example we have 2 series"
[1,2],0,1,3....Series 1
1,2,0,[1,3] ...Start bet middle/2nd dozen from here Series 2
I don't understand what you mean by series... I never mentioned anything about a series.
With the example I that I gave I only wanted to illustrate that in those 5 spins all dozens had gone out at least 1 time and never more than 3 times. Which makes it a winning combination. Ask me again if you still can't follow but seems to me it seems harder to understand than what it really is... It's really simple once you get the point.
Cubano
If u don t bet with progression 1,1,2,3,4 then if u will win in the 5th attempt u will be -.
U don t know how to explain things...but u like to explain things.hehe
Quote from: Jean-Claud on September 13, 2010, 03:11:47 PM
If u don t bet with progression 1,1,2,3,4 then if u will win in the 5th attempt u will be -.
U don t know how to explain things...but u like to explain things.hehe
Jean Claud
He waits for TWO spins first before betting.
SO:
Virtual - Dozen 1 comes out
Virtual - Then Dozen 2 comes out
Now bet Dozen 3 with 1 unit
Loss
Now bet Dozen 3 with 1 unit
Loss
Now bet Dozen 3 with 4 units
END
Only 3 legs of progression + 2 virtual = 5
BW
Quote from: Jean-Claud on September 13, 2010, 03:11:47 PM
If u don t bet with progression 1,1,2,3,4 then if u will win in the 5th attempt u will be -.
U don t know how to explain things...but u like to explain things.hehe
Always got to say something hey JC............ You are as useful as a fork in a soupbowl.
Quote from: beretta28 on September 13, 2010, 01:16:31 PM
1)According to your experience(up and down of your deficit) what's the necessary total bankroll and the session bankroll in units?
Stop loss and stop win?
2)If I'm not mistaken you play always the three terms progression(1,1,4)because after two spins you have either two different columns or two differents dozen almost all the time. . . .
1)According to your experience(up and down of your deficit) what's the necessary total bankroll and the session bankroll in units?
Stop loss and stop win?
2)If I'm not mistaken you play always the three terms progression(1,1,4)because after two spins you have either two different columns or two differents dozen almost all the time. . . .
1) Hello! I would have to say that since the chance of losing is very high you need a bankroll that can back you up for some time because even though I believe the long term will be profitable you don't know what could happen along the way. I first determined my bankroll with standard deviation as well (this is an extremely useful tool)... Ok so lets say that we lose 32% of the time (even if we know it is less than that) we need to choose a number of events just like we did for this strategy.
1000 spins which equals 200 sequences of 5 spins is not a bad start.
200 * 32/100 * 68/100 = 6.5970 (this number is SQUARED ROOT)
the third standard deviation (99.7%) is 6.5970 *3= 19.7909
The mean is 200 * 32/100= 64
Which means that 99.7% of the time I will lose approximately between 44 and 84 times every 200 sequences of 5 spins. This tells us that it could happen and it would be statistically correct to win only 116 times.
Now 116 *75$ average = 8700$
84 * 150$ average = 12600$
This means that for the long term I could be down 12600- 8700= 3900$
On the other side I could also only lose 44 times and win 156 times
156 *75$= 11700$
44*150$= 6600$
This means that for the long term I could also be up 11700- 6600= 5100$
Anyways I don't want to get away from what I was saying...Your bankroll should be able to cover sufficient losses so that you don't stop playing simply because you had a bad streak. Anyhow regardless of how I did you should be able to choose your own bankroll with the calculations above. Simply choose a time frame measured in sequences of 5 spins and start doing the formula. Each person has a different tolerance for risk.
As for stop win/stop loss... I go with 5 losses since I always aimed for around 30 spins (6 sets of 5 spins) and I calculated that 99.7% of the time I should lose between 0 and 5 times in that number of spins. I don't have a stop win... I simply go for 30 spins and take my winnings or the minute I lose 5 sequences I am gone for the day.
2) I do not always play the three terms progression. Sometimes I do not bet, other times only one bet, other times only two bets... It really depends on what the results are. I am also not ready yet to bet on rows...After a while it becomes a lot to do and I just keep on with the dozens. In a near future if I want to make more money all I'll have to do is bet more.
Cubano
I would like to thanks Jakkalsdraai and buffalowizard for their comments. Thank you guys!
Quote from: Jean-Claud on September 13, 2010, 03:11:47 PM
If u don t bet with progression 1,1,2,3,4 then if u will win in the 5th attempt u will be -.
U don t know how to explain things...but u like to explain things.hehe
Hey man you don't even know me and you're already saying that I don't know how to explain things?? You better be careful next time you write something...you might realise you're the one who's not following well the explanation. If you're not happy with this system that I'm only proposing then don't bother reading, this is only for those who want.
Cubano
Quote from: cubanopro on September 13, 2010, 02:49:06 PM
I'm not sure what you mean by this but if what you are referring to is if I wait after a loss or win the answer is yes.
I always wait for the 5 spins to finish (loss or win).
Hope this clears up your question!
Cubano
Thanks exactly what i meant. Thanks for your reply
yes Jakk and I look at u...u are so usefull! :sarcastic:
Quote from: Jean-Claud on September 13, 2010, 04:41:53 PM
yes Jakk and I look at u...u are so usefull! :sarcastic:
At least I read posts and understand what I read............Ever heard of 'look before you leap" Guess not.... Leap away amateur.
Hi Cubano
First of all let me say that your casino might be mine too, cuz my casino also has 25$ min outside bet.
Ok now for your method:
You say you have 3 betting sequences. : 25,25,100,...25,50,...25
You play series of 5 spins ...
What signals you to play 3 bets or 2 bets or 1 bet ???
Thanks
TTT
Is there someone here who can code this system to truly see if what I'm saying makes any sense at all? If so profits could be impressive in the long term. Lets work togheter and see if we might have something valuable here.
Cubano
During my 30 years of experience playing roulette I have never seen any one winning at roulette with math alone. This is NOT a reply , I repeat , not a reply to the original author.
But would anyone take just a few minutes with a cup of COMMON SENSE and just take the second dozen as an example and check those numbers on the single 0 wheel for their positions . You will see they are spread so far apart that one could not even hit them with a buck shot.( Just look for the gaps between them.
TO: CUBANOPRO
If you coud take the time and effort to look nto this matter what I just gave a hinf regarding those numbers being spread out and place bet according to the 12 numbers in each dozen then you really got the casino by the balls.
Compile your OWN 3 dozens !!!
I know the numbers on the single 0 wheel are of a different wheel sequence. But nothing comes easy.
Nathan Detroit.
.
Quote from: Jakkalsdraai on September 13, 2010, 04:45:20 PM
At least I read posts and understand what I read............Ever heard of 'look before you leap" Guess not.... Leap away amateur.
:clapping: :clapping: :good: :good: :good:
Quote from: TicTacToe on September 13, 2010, 04:50:48 PM
Hi Cubano
First of all let me say that your casino might be mine too, cuz my casino also has 25$ min outside bet.
Ok now for your method:
You say you have 3 betting sequences. : 25,25,100,...25,50,...25
You play series of 5 spins ...
What signals you to play 3 bets or 2 bets or 1 bet ???
Thanks
TTT
Hi Tictactoe (cool name by the way!)
Thanks for your post. What I do is wait for 2 dozens to show up and then I bet on the missing one. Since I cannot exceed 5 spins because of the law of the first standard deviation (68%), depending when the two dozens appear I make my move. If they appear at the very beginning I have to bet a maximum of three times. For example:
1, 2,.....this means that I now bet on dozen 3 and since there were only 2 spins there is a chance that I might bet for 3 spins.
1,2,1....still no third dozen and still a maximum of two bets to come.
1,2,1,0....still no third dozen and still one more and final bet. If I win the next one I restart looking for other missing dozens and if I lose I still do the same. The progression cannot exceed a total of three bets.
1,2,1,0,3....We have a winner...restart again!
Hope it helps!
Cubano
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on September 13, 2010, 04:54:32 PM
During my 30 years of experience playing roulette I have never seen any one winning at roulette with math alone. This is NOT a reply , I repeat , not a reply to the original author.
But would anyone take just a few minutes with a cup of COMMON SENSE and just take the second dozen as an example and check those numbers on the single 0 wheel for their positions . You will see they are spread so far apart that one could not even hit them with a buck shot.( Just look for the gaps between them.
TO: CUBANOPRO
If you coud take the time and effort to look nto this matter what I just gave a hinf regarding those numbers being spread out and place bet according to the 12 numbers in each dozen then you really got the casino by the balls.
Compile your OWN 3 dozens !!!
I know the numbers on the single 0 wheel are of a different wheel sequence. But nothing comes easy.
Nathan Detroit.
I'm sorry but I'm afraid I don't understand what is it exactly that you're asking me to do... You want me to look at the gap between the numbers of the second dozen on a single 0 wheel? Why is that useful? What difference does it make the gap there is in between them? Could you reformulate your question again if you don't mind please?
Thanks in advance!
Cubano
PS: By the way I only play on single 0 wheels (notice the title of this thread which mentions European roulette)
Cubanopor,
I am NOT an idiot and am reading every single line and I KNOW that I was referring to the single 0 wheel .
You did a good job setting up your system. You DID BLARE IT LOUD enough that it is a method for a single 0 wheel.
I am in no way critical of it For my sake you can play the # 0 and the # 36 and I would not give a rat`s tail what you play.
I only threw in a hint. Case closed . I am not from the debating society.
Wishing you the best of luck.
N.D.
CLARIFICATION:
My idea : If you target a dozen all those numbers might best be sequential like the Grand game ( 17 numbers) 0 with 8 numbers on each side. Or the orphans, , the Orphelins or for that matter tiers de cylindre.
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on September 13, 2010, 05:46:06 PM
Cubanopor,
I am NOT an idiot and am reading every single line and I KNOW that I was referring to the single 0 wheel .
You did a good job setting up your system. You DID BLARE IT LOUD enough that it is a method for a single 0 wheel.
I am in no way critical of it For my sake you can play the # 0 and the # 36 and I would not give a rat`s tail what you play.
I only threw in a hint. Case closed . I am not from the debating society.
Wishing you the best of luck.
N.D.
CLARIFICATION:
My idea : If you target a dozen all those numbers might best be sequential like the Grand game ( 17 numbers) 0 with 8 numbers on each side. Or the orphans, , the Orphelins or for that matter tiers de e cylindre.
Ok I would like to apologize if I offended you in any way (which clearly I have according to your tone)...I never said or mention or even insinuated that you were an idiot simply because I said that I was playing on a single 0 wheel. My apologies for that, I guess that writing can sometimes give a false tone to persons... Now I want to do what you previously asked it's just that I still don't get what you're saying.
Again sorry for the misunderstanding... It wasn't my intention..
Cubano
Cubano,
Maybe you have missed this part in my post:
CLARIFICATION:
My idea : If you target a dozen all those numbers might best be sequential LIKE the Grand game ( 17 numbers) 0 with 8 numbers on each side. Or the orphans, , the Orphelins or for that matter tiers de cylindre.
Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!
P.S. Sorry for the interruption. Keep going with your original post . I know certain things are difficult to explain in order to get the message across.
I have ran this for 3x100 spin sessions ( just cos I like to test for 100 spin sessions).
1x100 +12 ( best +19 worst -15 )
2x100 -16 (best +8 worst -16)
3x100 +22 (best +22 worst - 12)
Thanks for your system. I was beginning to think that the end of new roulette systems had come.
You explanation is very clear and you presented the math to peak our interest. It is a very simple system to play and could be played on the dozens or columns easy enough with pen and paper.
One question, "Have you tested this with any kind of progression, or only with the bet system you presented?"
In other words, if you were to reach a loss point of say down 14 units, does this hit often enough to consider increasing your bets to $50, $50, $200 in hopes of recovering your losses more quickly?
Thanks again,
George
Quote from: Far-Q on September 13, 2010, 06:36:39 PM
I have ran this for 3x100 spin sessions ( just cos I like to test for 100 spin sessions).
1x100 +12 ( best +19 worst -15 )
2x100 -16 (best +8 worst -16)
3x100 +22 (best +22 worst - 12)
Thank you man! I apreciate it! Then again this is not representative at all...we would need someone to code it and test it for say 10 000 spins at least.. Know someone?
Cubano
Quote from: GLC on September 13, 2010, 06:43:34 PM
Thanks for your system. I was beginning to think that the end of new roulette systems had come.
You explanation is very clear and you presented the math to peak our interest. It is a very simple system to play and could be played on the dozens or columns easy enough with pen and paper.
One question, "Have you tested this with any kind of progression, or only with the bet system you presented?"
In other words, if you were to reach a loss point of say down 14 units, does this hit often enough to consider increasing your bets to $50, $100, $200 in hopes of recovering your losses more quickly?
Thanks again,
George
Hello George!
It's always pleasant to hear good comments like yours. Thank you! Now concerning the progression I have not tried any other type of progression but it does sound appealing. I have to admit that it wouldn't sound like the craziest idea. I've been having some thoughts for some time now about upgrading my betting system and here is what I had in mind (tell me what you think):
Once again, with the standard deviation we could think of something. But for me to try something first it has to work on paper or else it becomes gambling (something I don't particularly enjoy)... Ok so what if instead of considering a loss every 5 spins missing a third dozen we would simply increase our bets on the next 5 spins? The percentages would change but so would the risk ratio... I will come back with something, I have to think this trough..
Thanks for your comment George!
Cubano
Ok ....still confused
Your explanation explains the 25,25,100 bets
Where would you use the 25,50 bets or the 25 bet
TTT
Hope I'm not too thick headed.
Quote from: TicTacToe on September 13, 2010, 08:38:57 PM
Ok ....still confused
Your explanation explains the 25,25,100 bets
Where would you use the 25,50 bets or the 25 bet
TTT
Hope I'm not too thick headed.
Hi man! ok I'll try to be more clear. The only time that my progression consist of 2 bets is when this happens for example:
1,1,2
The dozen #1 fell 2 times and dozen #2 fell once... the first level of standard deviation says that 68% of the time every 5 spins all dozens will fall between 1 and 3 times. What is the dozen missing? Dozen #3... Consequently I now have to bet on that dozen since I know that 68% of the time it will fall in the next two spins.
1,1,2,1
The dozen #3 still isn't there...that means that I have to bet a second time because of the 68% law stated above...
1,1,2,1,3
Winner!
I hope you get the point. The only moment i have to bet only once is when I have something like this:
1,1,1,2
I only bet once because after the fifth spin no matter what happens I stop betting. In other words remember this: ***In order for me to bet, two dozens need to fall in less than 5 spins, so that I can bet on the remaining one. If only one falls...no bet for that sequence of 5 spins and it's not a loss. That's why I say I lose less than 32% of the time.
Hope this time it was clear enough!
Cubano
Please note that I made a correction in my last post.
I had written to increase to $50, $100, $200.
I changed it to "increase to $50, $50, $200."
This keeps the same ratio as your first level of bets at $25, $25, $100.
Here's an example of what I was thinking. If you don't mind, I'll use units rather than $$ amounts.
Let's say we bet 1-1-2. If we lose all three bets, we bet 1-1-2 again.
If we lose the second set, we will be down -8 units.
Now we raise our bets to 2-2-4. As long as we hit on any of the bets, we continue betting 2-2-4 until we are back to even or a new high.
If we lose 2-2-4 twice without winning, we could go to 3-3-6 or 4-4-8.
We continue to bet at a level until we are even or up before starting over with 1-1-2.
We could incorporate Hermes' leveller concept and continue betting at 4-4-8 until we recover.
I'm just thinking that if the hit rate is high enough, this should work okay in the long run.
My problem is that I'm not good enough at math to be able to support such a bet strategy with confidence that we're not introducing a flaw in the system.
GLC
P.S. I just had another thought. Occasionally a dozen can sleep for a very long time. I was thinking if it wouldn't make things a little safer if we waited for a dozen that caused us to lose 3 bets to finally hit before we re-track and start betting again.
While testing this, I ran into a losing streak where the 3rd dozen slept for18 spins. That was 9 losing bets in a row. If I had waited until the 3rd dozen finally hit before tracking again, I could have saved myself a lot of units.
Play money for now, of course.
Here's a test session I did before retiring.
Doz Bet W/L Total
1
1
2
3 1 W +2
1
1
1
3
2 1 W +4
2
3
2 1 L +3
1 1 W +5
1
3
3 1 L +4
1 1 L +3
1 2 L +1
1
2
1 1 L 0
1 1 L -1
2 2 L -3
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
3
3
3
1
2 2 W +1
1
3
3 2 L -1
3 2 L -3
2 4 W +5
3
3
1
2 2 W +7 This is a mistake, should be +9. New hi so re-set to 1
2
2
1
2 1 L +6
2 1 L +5
2 2 L +3
1
3
3 1 L +2
2 1 W +4
3
3
3
2
3 1 L +3
1 1 W +5
2
2
3
1 1 W +7
3
2
1 1 W +9
1
1
2
2 1 L +8
1 1 L +7
3 2 W +11
2
1
2 1 L +10
1 1 L +9
3 2 W +13
2
1
1 1 L +12
2 1 L +11
1 2 L +9
1
2
2
1
3
3 1 L +8
2 1 W +10
2
3
1 1 W +12
1
1
2
3 1 W +14
As you can see, at least in this run, it recovered very well. Of course, not every run will be so favorable, but this at least shows us what can happen.
I know that I didn't wait through all 5 spins to start betting after 2 different dozens, but I'm a little impatient and I don't think in the long run it makes that much difference.
Sorry that the columns don't quite line up, but you can see the chart clearly enough, I think. I typed up the post on a word processor and when I pasted it into my reply, the tabs didn't carry over exactly.
George
Quote from: GLC on September 13, 2010, 11:40:39 PM
Here's an example of what I was thinking. If you don't mind, I'll use units rather than $$ amounts.
Let's say we bet 1-1-2. If we lose all three bets, we bet 1-1-2 again.
If we lose the second set, we will be down -8 units.
Now we raise our bets to 2-2-4. As long as we hit on any of the bets, we continue betting 2-2-4 until we are back to even or a new high.
If we lose 2-2-4 twice without winning, we could go to 3-3-6 or 4-4-8.
We continue to bet at a level until we are even or up before starting over with 1-1-2.
We could incorporate Hermes' leveller concept and continue betting at 4-4-8 until we recover.
I'm just thinking that if the hit rate is high enough, this should work okay in the long run.
My problem is that I'm not good enough at math to be able to support such a bet strategy with confidence that we're not introducing a flaw in the system.
Hi GLC! I appreciate your enthusiasm and that is the main reason I decided to post my system on this forum, so that we can hopefully find a solution all together to take over the house (like those MIT guys did with blackjack). The thing is that a progression like that would not work I'm afraid so...
First of all, you're assuming that the system always bets 3 times on every 5 spin. That would change the whole thing... Second of all, I calculated and according to the third level of standard deviation (99,7%) every dozen will fall between 1 and 14 times every 22 spins. This means that forget the 18 spins you were talking about, it could and it will go even further. And that's not all. It says that it could take 22 spins for a dozen to come out but are you forgetting that 0.3% says it could be more than 22? In other words, never mind thinking that raising the betting will change anything. All we will do is lower our losing rate by a lot and raise our winning rate but it will also SKYROCKET our risk ratio and even if we would only lose 0.3% of the time it will be more than enough to kill us 1248615637 times.... Thirdly and last point, you said you were testing the system with play money... Of course by all mean you're free to do whatever you want but I honestly discourage you to use RNG because even if you win or lose it does not prove anything. On the other hand, real tables follow all the same rules and standard deviation is one of them. Anyways I think that if you really want to test this system you should find someone who can code this and test it with live roulette results. That way you could get a realistic expectation of the system's performance.
Anyhow I thank you for your ideas and I hope more will come because that is the only way we will be able to meet our goal: success!
Have a good day my friend!
Cubano
Quote from: GLC on September 14, 2010, 01:25:57 AM
Here's a test session I did before retiring.
Doz Bet W/L Total
1
1
2
3 1 W +2
1
1
1
3
2 1 W +4
2
3
2 1 L +3
...
Hi GLC!
Wow thanks for your contribution! From where exactly did you imported these numbers???
Thanks to Cubano:method,answers to questions and explanations very clear,for most of members. . . . .
1st comment:If your method has solid mathematical basis,my suggestion is not to complicate it with progressions.
Your three progressions(1,1,4 1,2 1) are sufficient for long term winnings.
Progressions could speed up the wins ,but also increase drammatically your deficit ,if very bad streaks occur!
With YOUR PROGRESSION ,at least 100000 spins are necessary for conclusions if your method is valid.
10000 spins are not enough.
Question:) Three spins:2 2 3 you play 1,2 progression on 1st Dozen:fourth hit 2(Lose!) fifth hit 1(win!)
DO YOU CONSIDER THE LAST TWO SPINS OF THE PREVIOUS FIVE SPINS CYCLE(DOZENS 2 AND 1),LIKE THE BEGINNING OF A NEW FIVE SPINS CYCLE AND YOU SHOULD PLAY 3RD DOZEN with 1,1,4 PROGRESSION or YOU CONSIDER CLOSED THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND LOOK FOR NEXT SPINS BEFOREPLAYiNG?
In other words you play ONLY five spins blocks or you play on a rolling basis?
I hope it's clear!
Thanks
DO YOU CONSIDER THE LAST TWO SPINS OF THE PREVIOUS FIVE SPINS CYCLE(DOZENS 2 AND 1),LIKE THE BEGINNING OF A NEW FIVE SPINS CYCLE AND YOU SHOULD PLAY 3RD DOZEN with 1,1,4 PROGRESSION or YOU CONSIDER CLOSED THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND LOOK FOR NEXT SPINS BEFOREPLAYiNG?
In other words you play ONLY five spins blocks or you play on a rolling basis?
.....................
I asked the same question....see the reply #11
Thanks Far-Q.
I missed it...sorry!
Quote from: beretta28 on September 14, 2010, 06:09:39 AM
Thanks Far-Q.
I missed it...sorry!
No worries here mate :good:
Cubano,
Just can't grasp why 1-1-4/as testing it so far...many bets of 4 lose/--am also testing it 1-1-2,which brings better results.
Maybe there is a reason for it,but I can't see it.Any explanation.
What about using other progression :
1
1
2 bet 1u
3 W +2 bet next 2u
1
1
1
3
2 W +6 bet next 3u
2
3
2 L +3
1 W +9 bet next 4u
1
3
3 L +5
1 L +1
1 L -3 bet next 3u
1
2
1 L -6
1 L -9
2 L -12 bet next 2u
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
3
3
3
1
2 W -8 bet next 3u
1
3
3 L -11
3 L -14
2 W -8 bet next 4u
3
3
1
2 W 0 bet next 5u
2
2
1
2 L -5
2 L -10
2 L -15 bet next 4u
1
3
3 L -19
2 W -11 bet next 5u
3
3
3
2
3 L -16
1 W -6 bet next 6u
2
2
3
1 W +6 bet next 7u
3
2
1 W +20 bet next 8u
1
1
2
2 L +12
1 L +4
3 W +20 bet next 9u
2
1
2 L +11
1 L +2
3 W +20 bet next 10u
2
1
1 L +10
2 L 0
1 L -10 bet next 9u
1
2
2
1
3
3 L -19
2 W -1 bet next 10u
2
3
1 W +19 bet next 11u
1
1
2
3 W +41
system is good,just use divisor tool wich you have on the forum with settings 0 safety break and target 12 and rules for the above system does it good. . 8)
Quote from: cubanopro on September 14, 2010, 01:49:44 AM
Hi GLC!
Wow thanks for your contribution! From where exactly did you imported these numbers???
Cubano,
I got these spins from Win-Maxx.com. They have a section on historic spins recorded off Weisbaden. They should are from live table in Germany, single zero wheel. Should be valid for testing purposes, definitely not RNG.
Thanks for correcting my method of play. You're right, I forgot about the fact that if the 2nd dozen hits 1 or 2 spins after the 1st dozen, reduces the betting opportunities down to either 1 or 2.
I still like this system, and intend to continue learning with and from you.
Thanks,
George
Quote from: beretta28 on September 14, 2010, 05:58:02 AM
Thanks to Cubano:method,answers to questions and explanations very clear,for most of members. . . . .
With YOUR PROGRESSION ,at least 100000 spins are necessary for conclusions if your method is valid.
10000 spins are not enough.
Hi beretta28! Thank you very much for your kind compliments I appreciate it! Now concerning the necessary spins I would say that 1000 000 would be better (just in case). We're never too precautious :p! Now where could I find a fellow that could help code this??? I saw a section that says it's for coding but I don't know if someone down there would be willing to code this system.. It seems complicated to write (on the other hand it is very easy to apply).
Quote from: Far-Q on September 14, 2010, 06:02:44 AM
DO YOU CONSIDER THE LAST TWO SPINS OF THE PREVIOUS FIVE SPINS CYCLE(DOZENS 2 AND 1),LIKE THE BEGINNING OF A NEW FIVE SPINS CYCLE AND YOU SHOULD PLAY 3RD DOZEN with 1,1,4 PROGRESSION or YOU CONSIDER CLOSED THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND LOOK FOR NEXT SPINS BEFOREPLAYiNG?
In other words you play ONLY five spins blocks or you play on a rolling basis?
.....................
I asked the same question....see the reply #11
Thanks for helping up man!
Quote from: medo on September 14, 2010, 11:23:18 AM
Cubano,
Just can't grasp why 1-1-4/as testing it so far...many bets of 4 lose/--am also testing it 1-1-2,which brings better results.
Maybe there is a reason for it,but I can't see it.Any explanation.
Hi Medo! Very good question! Well in fact like I said in my post I have only played for around 3000 spins...which in my opinion makes this system "a trial version". I still don't know if I could really beat the house on the long run with this since I haven't test it for 1000 000 spins. Now the reason I decided to play 1,1,4 is because I did a little table in excel to calculate how much I risk in comparison to how much I win (risk ratio). I noticed that the more I bet towards the end and the more I lower my exposure (risk ratio lower). But then again you are free to apply whichever technique you think could improve your game. After all I did post this here so that people could do whatever they wanted with this system. Someone asked me earlier what about stop losses and I showed how I calculated mine with the help of standard deviation but I also said that everyone should decide their own stop loss on their because not everybody has the same risk tolerance. That being said, if you believe your progression could improve your game I encourage you to use it.
Have a good day!
Quote from: balint on September 14, 2010, 11:35:49 AM
What about using other progression :
1
1
2 bet 1u
3 W +2 bet next 2u
1
1
1
3
2 W +6 bet next 3u
2
...
Hi balint! Thanks for your interest! Like I say to others you are free to use whichever progression you would like...I think that I'm going to stay with mine until proven over 1000 000 spins that another is better. I also wanted to mention that in your example you did not follow my system rules... You have to separate all of your spins into little sequences of 5 spins. I would suggest you do like this:
1
1
2 bet 1u
3 W +2 bet nest 2 u
1
1
1
3 bet 2u
2 w +6 bet next 3u
2
In other words, you have to wait for the sequence of 5 spins to finish before betting again.
Good day my friend!
Quote from: cubanopro on September 14, 2010, 03:10:56 PM
Hi Medo! Very good question! Well in fact like I said in my post I have only played for around 3000 spins...which in my opinion makes this system "a trial version". I still don't know if I could really beat the house on the long run with this since I haven't test it for 1000 000 spins. Now the reason I decided to play 1,1,4 is because I did a little table in excel to calculate how much I risk in comparison to how much I win (risk ratio). I noticed that the more I bet towards the end and the more I lower my exposure (risk ratio lower). But then again you are free to apply whichever technique you think could improve your game. After all I did post this here so that people could do whatever they wanted with this system. Someone asked me earlier what about stop losses and I showed how I calculated mine with the help of standard deviation but I also said that everyone should decide their own stop loss on their because not everybody has the same risk tolerance. That being said, if you believe your progression could improve your game I encourage you to use it.
Have a good day!
I like your approach about how you presented your method to others----
you can do as it suits you---the basic fundaments are same,idea is yours.........BUT.....
since I can smell great improvements in this method/I think am not alone/I suggest that
everybodys come out with what ever improvements they do.
---For instance instead of 1-1-4,my idea would be 1-1-2,for a start.There will be more.
Quote from: maestro on September 14, 2010, 12:43:34 PM
system is good,just use divisor tool wich you have on the forum with settings 0 safety break and target 12 and rules for the above system does it good. . 8)
Hi maestro! I can't find the tool you're talking about... a little help?
Quote from: GLC on September 14, 2010, 12:53:29 PM
Cubano,
I still like this system, and intend to continue learning with and from you.
Thanks,
George
Thanks man! It's always good to here good comments! Now we really need to focus on finding a person who can code this.
Quote from: medo on September 14, 2010, 03:40:21 PM
I like your approach about how you presented your method to others----
you can do as it suits you---the basic fundaments are same,idea is yours.........BUT.....
since I can smell great improvements in this method/I think am not alone/I suggest that
everybodys come out with what ever improvements they do.
---For instance instead of 1-1-4,my idea would be 1-1-2,for a start.There will be more.
Thanks for your comments! Man I like the attitude that people have towards my post... it's very constructive! :thumbsup: Now I must say concerning the progression, only once we code this system we will know which progression works better! Can someone please help us???
--I don't believe you need so many spins for testing it.
--and you would be better of overthere/where you sending ppl.here/
regarding coding of your method.
I have been testing with the following method and progression:
I start using the 1 1 4 progresion. If I get a loss then I wait until the missing dozen reappears then I start tracking again. When I am ready to bet again I use 2 2 8 until I get back to profit then I revert back to 1 1 4. If I lose at this level I will follow the same procedure then start betting with a 3 3 12 progression until back in profit. So far I haven't needed to go beyond this level and I usually return to profit fairly quickly.
Ross
Quote from: medo on September 14, 2010, 04:00:52 PM
--I don't believe you need so many spins for testing it.
--and you would be better of overthere/where you sending ppl.here/
regarding coding of your method.
I don't understand the last sentence.. I would be better off overthere?? Where?
Quote from: rossco on September 14, 2010, 04:10:05 PM
I have been testing with the following method and progression:
I start using the 1 1 4 progresion. If I get a loss then I wait until the missing dozen reappears then I start tracking again. When I am ready to bet again I use 2 2 8 until I get back to profit then I revert back to 1 1 4. If I lose at this level I will follow the same procedure then start betting with a 3 3 12 progression until back in profit. So far I haven't needed to go beyond this level and I usually return to profit fairly quickly.
Ross
Hi Ross! Thanks for your work! Now I have to tell you that it doesn't matter waiting for the missing dozen to fall... Remember the wheel doesn't remember anything and so it doesn't change anything at all whether you wait or not... The standard deviation doesn't change either... it will still be 68% of the time every 5 spins each dozen will still come out between 1 and 3 times, regardless of for how many spins the dozen #3 has been missing. Anyways I'm happy to see that you're as positive as I am with my system and I encourage you to keep that good energy, but I don't suggest you keep wasting your time waiting for the missing dozen to fall. This whole system is based on standard deviation, therefore you contradict yourself by waiting...
Hope my response was useful my friend!
Quote from: cubanopro on September 14, 2010, 04:12:21 PM
I don't understand the last sentence.. I would be better off overthere?? Where?
Never mind,eventually you might get it,but nothing
to be worried about,just a thought it was.
I understand what you are saying and I agree with you in theory however I have noticed that at times when a dozen is sleeping you are better to wait for it to hit again and then start again and so avoid what could be a costly series of losses.
Here's an idea ...don't know if you'll get the gist of it ... hope so...
You say the SD is 68% every 5 spins
Now if we take the 5 spin groups and count them as 1 win or loss ... can we calculate a SD for this series ?
Take it from there boys ....
TTT
If this doesn't make sense then just ignore it
Ofcourse it does.That is something very constructive,to further explore.
Regarding your use of standard deviations:
You're using it backwards. Here's why:
1. Each spin of the wheel is an independent event. This means the dozens don't become "due to hit" just because the std is high.
2. You're limiting the number of spins you can play by standing around waiting.
3. Chasing losing numbers by measuring the std on them is a great way to accidently end up betting on a defective number. Some numbers don't hit as often as they should for good reasons.
4. Betting more as you lose limits the amount of money you can win because the initial bets are low.
Here's how to use it correctly:
1. Forget about the dozens. There are too many numbers in each dozen and it's unlikely that they will all remain winners over time.
2. Measure the standard deviation on the individual numbers to see if they're hitting more frequently than they should be hitting. Use a much larger sample of spins.
3. Bet fewer numbers.
4. Track more spins.
5. Bet more as you WIN, not more as you lose. This way you can open with a larger bet and win more.
By betting on the "winners" you will have a greater chance of winning. Every now and then a pocket can get a little "sticky" and you can catch a nice run.
Good luck,
Herb6
Quote from: rossco on September 14, 2010, 04:35:43 PM
I understand what you are saying and I agree with you in theory however I have noticed that at times when a dozen is sleeping you are better to wait for it to hit again and then start again and so avoid what could be a costly series of losses.
Hi Rossco! I'm sorry man but if you want to convince me of something you have to put some facts on the table. Based on what (other than your own experience as a player) can you firmly say that it is better to wait for a sleeping dozen to come out before betting on it? I'm sorry in advance if this by any means sounds at all rude because I'm not trying to, it is simply something to think about. A statement like that doesn't make any sense at all. You will also lose a series of wins by waiting...anyways I encourage you to keep thinking on my system. That way we will probably achieve something.
Thanks for your posts man! I apreciate it!
Quote from: TicTacToe on September 14, 2010, 04:52:50 PM
You say the SD is 68% every 5 spins
Now if we take the 5 spin groups and count them as 1 win or loss ... can we calculate a SD for this series ?
Hi TTT! Man I'm afraid you might have to elaborate a bit more on the subject... what exactly are you suggesting? I have already discussed this previously if it has something to do with changing the progression. At one point I was thinking of changing my progression and do something like :
(my normal sessions length are around 30 spins or so)
30 spins = 6 set of 5 spins.
Technically I will win 68% of every set therefore 6*0.68= 4.08 ≈ 4
Now if I calculate the third SD (99.7%) it says:
6 * 0.68 * 0.32 = 1.1426 (squared root)
1.1426 * 3= 3.4279
Mean= 4 (the number of sets I should win in theory)
Result: Every 6 sets of 5 spins 99.7% of the time I will win between ≈ 1 and 7 sets (which is impossible since there are only 6 sets in 30 spins...so I can only win 6 and not 7)
This also means that only 0.3% of the time I will win 0 set.
Knowing this I could create some kind of progression and adjust so that I only lose 0,3%...but rest assured that this will in the long run be a losing formula since 0.3% of the time will be more than enough to take away all of our bankroll.
Lol all this explanation may have been in vain since I'm not even sure this is what you were asking... (I hope that it was)
Quote from: Herb6 on September 14, 2010, 05:54:29 PM
Regarding your use of standard deviations:
You're using it backwards. Here's why:
1. Each spin of the wheel is an independent event. This means the dozens don't become "due to hit" just because the std is high.
2. You're limiting the number of spins you can play by standing around waiting.
3. Chasing losing numbers by measuring the std on them is a great way to accidently end up betting on a defective number. Some numbers don't hit as often as they should for good reasons.
4. Betting more as you lose limits the amount of money you can win because the initial bets are low.
Here's how to use it correctly:
1. Forget about the dozens. There are too many numbers in each dozen and it's unlikely that they will all remain winners over time.
2. Measure the standard deviation on the individual numbers to see if they're hitting more frequently than they should be hitting. Use a much larger sample of spins.
3. Bet fewer numbers.
4. Track more spins.
5. Bet more as you WIN, not more as you lose. This way you can open with a larger bet and win more.
By betting on the "winners" you will have a greater chance of winning. Every now and then a pocket can get a little "sticky" and you can catch a nice run.
Good luck,
Herb6
Hey man first of all thanks a lot for your post! These are the kind of responses that I like to read. Everything looks interesting but before changing my method I of course would need to code this and then try it with your improvements to see the change.
On the other hand, I must say that it is not crazy to bet on numbers instead of dozens. I had already think of that but since it was going very well with dozens I kept on going. But I guess there's no harm in calculating for numbers... The bet more as I win part is the one I don't get...why would this advantage me?? How am I better off by opening with a larger bet? Also when you say : dozens have too many numbers and it's unlikely that they will remain winners over time?? What do you mean? It is a fact what I found with standard deviation... It has nothing to do with having to many numbers or not.. Regardless of the amount of numbers each dozen will fall between 1 and 3 times 68% of the time every 5 spins. Anyways tell me what you think! This is definitely some good team work we've got over here!
Thanks again for your time!
Herb is a BIAS player. His advantage is comming from the phisics of the wheel
ROSSCO: your comment on the sleeping dozen is ridiculous.
Cubanopro is trying to illustrate his method with numbers and formulas:I 'd like to see yours ,confirming your stupid
theory on sleeping dozen
Cubanopro:your goal now is ONLY to have the confirmation of your theory through tests(Excel? VB? may be not enough!)
Is there anyone available to do that?
I have only a problem with your method: every spin you play 12 numbers(the Dozen),so you have 67,56% probability to lose .The Standard Deviation can't modify that,mainly in the short term.
What I'm afraid is that at the end,like all systems,after thousand spins your balance will be ZERO,less 2,70% of the total amount of money put on the table.
Probailities are stronger than STD!! I hope I'm mistaken
SORRY FOR THE LACK OF WORDS.....BUT WHY SHARE SUCH A SYSTEM ONLINE== MAYBE :-X BECAUSE YOU WORK FOR CASINO. (MY OPINION);
-LOTS OF WAITING BEFORE BETTING.
-AND THE WAY THE DOZENS ARE PLACED ON THE WHEEL CAN MAKE IT VERY EASY FOR THE DEALER TO AIM AWAY FROM THE DOZEN YOUR BETTING ON. (WHICH IS WHY PLAYING AT A VERY BUSY TABLE WOULD BE BETTER UNLIKE WHAT Cubanopro SAID DONT PLAY AT A BUSY TABLE) QUIET TABLE MAKES IT EASIER FOR DEALER TO AIM.
YES YES WHY WOULD THEY AIM....WELL I BELIVE ITS BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.
------------------------------------------
STICK TO OBSERVATIONS OF WHATS HAPPENING AT THE TIME------PRACTICE MAKES YOU MORE EXPERIENCED OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN AT THE WHEEL.
MATTJONO
Quote from: beretta28 on September 15, 2010, 05:29:01 AM
ROSSCO: your comment on the sleeping dozen is ridiculous.
Cubanopro is trying to illustrate his method with numbers and formulas:I 'd like to see yours ,confirming your stupid theory on sleeping dozen
Cubanopro:your goal now is ONLY to have the confirmation of your theory through tests(Excel? VB? may be not enough!)
Is there anyone available to do that?
I have only a problem with your method: every spin you play 12 numbers(the Dozen),so you have 67,56% probability to lose .The Standard Deviation can't modify that,mainly in the short term.
What I'm afraid is that at the end,like all systems,after thousand spins your balance will be ZERO,less 2,70% of the total amount of money put on the table.
Probailities are stronger than STD!! I hope I'm mistaken
Hi beretta28! Thank you for your post and your interest but I think we don't need to start treating other people's ideas as being ''stupid''. Besides we're all here trying to achieve something as a group...if we start fighting between ourselves it's the casino that wins! It's US against THEM...not US against OURSELVES.. Everybody is free to suggest any theory they'd like and it will never or at least should never be considered as stupid or irrelevant. Let's keep a good level of respect on this thread as we have done it since the beginning. Thanks!
Now concerning what you were asking me...I'm not sure this system could survive the long term... in fact that is the main reason I am still very up on my winnings...because I have only played for around 3000 spins.. I suppose that by the time I will be on my 10 000 spin I should start going downhill (or even before that...who knows?). All I really wanted to do is try to get this coded so that I would have the certainty that it doesn't work long term without having to lose any bankroll...
That's why I'm really hoping to get someone to code this... Any volunteers???
Quote from: MATTJONO on September 15, 2010, 11:07:24 AM
SORRY FOR THE LACK OF WORDS.....BUT WHY SHARE SUCH A SYSTEM ONLINE== MAYBE :-X BECAUSE YOU WORK FOR CASINO. (MY OPINION);
-LOTS OF WAITING BEFORE BETTING.
-AND THE WAY THE DOZENS ARE PLACED ON THE WHEEL CAN MAKE IT VERY EASY FOR THE DEALER TO AIM AWAY FROM THE DOZEN YOUR BETTING ON. (WHICH IS WHY PLAYING AT A VERY BUSY TABLE WOULD BE BETTER UNLIKE WHAT Cubanopro SAID DONT PLAY AT A BUSY TABLE) QUIET TABLE MAKES IT EASIER FOR DEALER TO AIM.
YES YES WHY WOULD THEY AIM....WELL I BELIVE ITS BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.
Hi Mattjono! Sorry to disappoint you in your big theory of conspiracy lol but I do not work for any casino and I do not have the intention to start working for one of them any time soon... Let me recap what you said...
Lots of waiting before betting.. lol when did you read that?? If you find that waiting for 2 spins is a lot of waiting well then I would not like being with you in say...a plane to cross the Atlantic ocean... Lol it takes more than 5 minutes
Cubanopro said don't play at a busy table... that's funny because I believe what I said was:
''I usually don't go on very busy nights because it's very slow when too many people playing at the same time'' ... someone asked me about the details of my playing sessions. I always say that everyone is free to play the way they want..
Last thing Mattjono... I just though of something... If I was indeed working for a casino, which one would that be??? The casino of the world?? lol how would my post be considered as any kind of advertising for any casino? I'm not even suggesting a casino in particular so how would the casino I ''supposedly work for'' benefit from my post? Anyways I wish you a good day my friend but I have to admit I had fun with your theory.
Take care!
So guys have we found someone to code this yet???
@cubanopro
nolinks://nolinks.westspiel.de/DO_HOHENSYBURG/Klassisches-Spiel/Permanenzen/132672,1031,132636,-1.aspx (nolinks://nolinks.westspiel.de/DO_HOHENSYBURG/Klassisches-Spiel/Permanenzen/132672,1031,132636,-1.aspx)
Hello
here you can find every day live roulette results and archives from 28 tables for your game
When I have time I will make some tests in Excel and put the results in your item.
:)
regards
Ludo8400
Cubanpro,
You shouldn't need to test this. Read more before wasting your time on it. Start with the wizardofodds.com
Also read on the gambler's fallacy.
Good luck.
-Herb6
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fimg442.imageshack.us%2Fimg442%2F3182%2Fscreenhunter01sep170745.th.gif&hash=56137b490f47f4d23b2d3e0732cd7136aaed4a8f) (nolinks://img442.imageshack.us/i/screenhunter01sep170745.gif/)
Hi Ludo,
I think that you made a mistake, a session consists out of maximal 5 spins, so if you win after the 3rd spin, a new session is started. That does not matter much however because it is a very fast loosing system.
To be honest I'm very suspicious as the "fingerprint" of this system reminds me a lot a the scams of this guy who said that a maths boy cracked roulette, or that a casino programmer found an errorin the rng software.
So what is the fingerprint?
1. very helpful, does not want to make money himself but really wants us to make money
2. specialized in dozen and column bets
3. always waiting before betting (this will actually cause the gambler to discover later (too late) that this is a loosing system)
I may be wrong, but this is what I suspect. For people interested, I attached several tests. So you do not have to try it in the casino and loose this months salary (test 1 and 2) (true, you might double it (test 0), and than get the idea that it works, but you will loose tremendously in the end), because of 100.000 spins it's a sure looser
Hi fellas! I just wanted to say that I believe this is the end of our journey! Although this was an interesting post I have now mathematical proof that my system won't work in the long run. Another person from another forum helped me out by explaining me why it could not work over many spins. I think it's imperative that I show you the message he wrote me so that you too can benefit from it. Perhaps you can understand why it wouldn't work in the long term.
''I'm sorry to disappoint you, but your system will not work. I will post this at the website as soon as the administrator approves my registration.
Your basic logic is sound, but your numbers are a bit sloppy. When you refine the numbers, the expectation turns negative. I don't doubt you have had success, but it was luck. Every five spins, this system loses an average of $1.82, but the standard deviation is huge, $87.64. That means it takes about 2,500 sequences of five spins before your negative expectation equals your standard deviation. Even at that point, there is one chance in six you will be ahead by luck.
To start with, your formula based on standard deviation is only an approximation. The chance of every column appearing between 1 and 3 times in five spins is actually 59%, not 68%. Things are a little better than that for your system, because 5% of the time only one column will appear, so only 36% of the time do you lose because two columns appeared but not three. If you ignore the 5% of the time you don't bet, you win 62% of the time and lose 38%. But that means you win only 1.65 times as often as you lose, not 2.125.
Next consider the amounts you win and lose. There are seven possible outcomes from your system, listed below with probability, result, reason:
9% +$150, win on third bet
31% +$50, win on first bet
19% +$25, win on second bet
5%, $0, don't bet
6% -$25, lose one bet
11% -$50, lose on second bet
19% -$150, lose on third bet
Overall, you win an average of $57.71 59% of the time and lose an average of $100.02 36% of the time (5% of the time is no bet). Your expected value from the series of five spins is -$1.82.
There is no way to adjust the system to make it work. Unless you think the roulette wheel is biased (which is bad for your system) or has a memory, each bet has negative expectation. Without some way to predict the next number, systems like this cannot work.''
Let this be an example of why systems using only statistics won't work in the long run. **Each bet has negative expectation. Now I have the proof I needed to stop playing...eventually I will lose it all if I continue.
I wish you all a good day! And for those that genuinely believed I worked for a casino or something like that, well what can I say...I guess it's not every day you see a guy that from its own good will wants to share a winning technique. Besides I never said it was the Holy Grail I simply said that it was, at the moment, working for me and I needed to know if it could work in the long term.
Cubano