my method of playing

[roules]

Hey Diarmaid - long time no see. I think we're still trying to agree on that ourselves but I'm pretty much going off reply #9 on the first page.

[John1234]

Hi guys, could you maybe make one post outlining the full method of play.

I have looked over the posts a few times but I am still not sure 100% the method, its a little all over the place.


Thanks
Diarmaid

I posted a reply to your post but it vanished so I will post again.

As Roules stated we are still trying to agree on something. It is difficult to find a progression because you have to find a progression that is unique to the bet selection. And I keep coming up with ideas on how to improve the method, but most of my ideas fail. The only progression that has worked for me has been the riskier one that I posted with the original method.

There are a few rules that are important to the method.

1.) When you win 5.5 to 6 units stop and do not play anymore. 6 units seems to be the average you will win per shoe. I have found that if you try to go for 7 or 8 units then you will lose all the profit sometimes. However sometimes you can have a 10 unit shoe, but that is rare. When you win 6 units real quick it is very important to use the discipline and stop. I have seen it win quick then the shoe becomes choppy and it becomes impossible to bounce back.

2.) Chops are the worst thing so if you suffer 4 losses in a row or 4 out of 5, then I would stop betting and wait for another 3+capping and start the progression at 1.5 units with the next capping bet. This rule also depends on how risky you want to be. To be safer you could wait for 3 loses then stop and wait for the new trigger, this will mean that you will not climb the progression ladder fast.

3.) stop loss, I think we decided that it should be somewhere around 20 units? Something like that.

So basically you are looking for 3 or more of the same outcome to be capped by the opposite outcome. At that moment you bet the side that streaked. If you win then you are done. If you lose then you use the progression to recover, betting streaks.
So an example of a win
B
B
B
P bet B
B

An if you lose

P
P
P
P
B Bet P
B Bet B
B win

The progression that I use  is 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5 and so on, you are going up .5 each time you lose.

Here is the recovery aspect of the method.
When you win you go up until you are .5 or 1 unit ahead. If you win the 1.5 bet then you stop and you have recovered. Wait for the next trigger

When you lose the 1.5 bet you continue up the ladder. Upon hitting the 2 unit bet you have to work your way back down the ladder until you are .5 units or 1 unit ahead. If you win the 2 bet then you can either step down to 1.5 or jump down to 1. Your choice.

If you lose the 2 bet then you go to the 2.5 bet. At this point you have to win the 2.5 bet two times before you can work your way down the ladder, and the same goes for each bet after 2.5.

When you have won the 2.5 bet or any bet higher than 2.5 you work your way down, adjusting your bets to meet the recovery win goal and you own limits. For instance, sometimes you can jump a unit if you want to play safe or sometimes you can just go straight on down until you are .5 or 1 unit ahead.

Once you get .5 or 1 unit ahead the recovery is over, now matter how far down the ladder you still have to go. So if you get ahead at the 2 unit bet and you are .5 or 1 unit ahead then you stop and go back into capping mode.

Now if I have a few capping bets that streaked and only produced .5 units in a row then I will start my base bet at 1.5 units. Usually I do this if I get 3 wins of .5 units. Then once I get within the 6 unit range I will go back to 1 unit base.

There are at least 50 example shoes that I tested and posted on here. It did well in the 50 shoes and it did great when I played it live. But there will be times when it loses. The key is to keep loses to a min. That is why I am looking for a better progression.

[Diarmaid]

You are testing Marvens 5 level plan, with your method?  So your not using the up and down 0.5 units?

So marvens plan kicks in if you lose that first bet after a 3+ cap?

Also do you just ignore the Ties,   is this a 3+cap     PPTPB 


Sorry for all the questions

Cheers
D

[Diarmaid]

Also do you just ignore the Ties,   is this a 3+cap     PPTPB


or this


BBBBTP  (bet B now?)

[Natural9]

Ignore ties like they never existed

[Diarmaid]

Played 2 shoes.

+€120     €10 units


Beginners luck maybe.  Hopefully not. 

[Diarmaid]

I am a little puzzled by this rule.   


2.) Chops are the worst thing so if you suffer 3 losses in a row or 3 out of 4, then I would stop betting and wait for another 3+capping and start the progression at 1.5 units with the next capping bet.




Wouldnt this mean you would never get to 2.5 units in the progression??   or am I missing something.


Cheers
D

[GARNabby]

Hi John1234,

When are you going to try your system for real?

I'm in the process of copying yours.  Will study it later.

Thanks.

[JavierTT]

Great job, John. Its really better a positive progression. Greetings.

Javier.

[Natural9]

Which pattern is the method prone to now John maye put al lthe rules MM and BR requirement in pne post

[roules]

Hi John,

Finally came to conclusion huh? That's pretty complex at a first glance. How do you get a LW registry if you need it early on in the shoe? If you won the first two caps say, your registry would be WW, but you need five Ls or Ws to determine how much to bet next.

I played my first live shoe in a casino today - until now I'd only played online(live dealer of course). I had a ball too - made 22 units in one and a quarter shoes(mini bac) and very happy with myself It's amazing watching some people playing - no apparent bet selection or money management but they still keep reaching into their pockets for more $100 bills! Crazy stuff. I actually went there to play roulette and got rolled in about 12 spins. Stupid roulette, I'm gonna stick with the cards for now.

I went off tangent a bit and came up with my own system that I played today based on some good tests. Take the first three decisions and play against them for the rest of the shoe using a 1,3,7 progression. It works well but of course it loses every now and again.

And to clarify from before - on 'no commission' baccarat the general rule is they only pay half on a winning banker 6 bet. So if you bet $100 on banker and it won with a 6 you would only get $50.

[Natural9]

Summery:

Yesterday I made 2 posts outlining a new idea that I have to improve the method. I am now going to post a summery post to condense all of the information so that it is not as overwhelming. I will try to just present the basic information that you should know about this idea. As I said a few posts ago, it is just an idea, not set in stone. It did much better in 50 shoes than the original method but it may not do as good in another 50, more testing is needed.

The summery post will cover

1.) The basic Rules
2.) Money Management Rules (this includes Progression and BR requirements)
3.) Bet Selection Overview

1.) Basic Rules:

A) You are making the normal 3+capping bet. The normal 3+capping bet is PPPB then bet P or PPPPB then bet P. So it is 3 OR MORE of the same outcome capped by the opposite outcome. At that moment you bet the 3+side to return so this simply means you are betting for the capped outcome to chop. This is the same bet that I presented in the original method. 

B) When you lose the 3+capping bet you use the recovery bet selection until you recover to even or +1 unit ahead. For example: If you are ahead 1 unit and you lose, you begin to recover until you get ahead 1 unit again. Sometimes the progression will have you making a bet that will result in a gain of 1 more unit.

C) When You complete the recovery you go back to the 3+capping Bet.

D) 2 phases. When You win Phase 1, go to phase 2. When you win phase 2 you are done.

2) Money Management Rules:

A) The total Win goal of the Shoe is 6-10 units. When you win 9-10 units you stop playing the shoe. You can also stop anytime between 6-10 units.

B) There is a 9 and 10 unit stopper. A 9 and 10 unit stopper means that if you get to 9 units before 10 then you stop playing the shoe.  If you get to 10 units then you stop.

C) 9/10 unit stopper condition. If you only lose one 3+capping bet in both phases and you reach the 9 unit mark then attempt to make 10 units. If you lose the bet then stop.

D) There are 2 phases to the shoe. Phase 1 has a win goal of 5 units. Upon winning phase 1 you stop and restart the progression as you enter phase 2. Phase 2 has a 5 unit win goal. When you win phase 2 you are done playing.

E) In phase 1, you bet the shoe's basic bet selection that I outlined.

F) In phase 2 you can change the bet only if you have 1 winning 3+capping bet. If I only win one 3+capping bet in phase 1 then I will give the 3+capping bet in phase 2 a chance. If it losses then I will switch the 3+capping bet to 3+capping streaks. This means that when you get 3 more or more of the opposite outcome that is capped you bet that the side that capped the 3+ will streak. If you lose then you go back to the normal recovery and bet selection. This is something that I do. If you don't understand what I am saying then just don't do it. The shoe has to be very streaky for me to even perform this switch.   

G) Marven's 5 Level Staking Plan is the progression. The staking plan is used in both phases of the shoe. After you win phase 1 you stop and restart the progression for Phase 2.

H) If you are using a base bet higher than $15 then never bet 5 units and rarely bet 4 units. The highest bet that you could make in Marven's Staking plan is 5 units. The second highest bet you can make is 4 units. I find that this approach is a safer approach to take.
Here is an example of when not to bet 4 or 5 units.

WWWWW you reach 3+capping bet and you have a profit of 4 units, so you only need one unit to reach your 5 unit win goal in phase 1. So you only bet 1 unit. If You win then you have made 5 units and now you can enter phase with a clean slate on the staking plan.

HOWEVER if you lose then the staking plan will look like this

WWWWL you will be down to 3 units. Now you bet 2 units. The normal bet should be 4 units but you only need 2 to recover. If you win then you have 5 units and you go into phase 2.

HOWEVER if you lose then the staking plan will look like this

WWWLL now you bet in sync with the staking plan. So your bet will be 3 units

The only time I bet 4 units is when I want to recover faster or I am feeling risky or something like that. The minimum tables near me are $20 dollars, if the tables were only $5 then I would have no problem betting 4 or 5 units.

I) Stop Loss-- More testing is needed to determine the stop loss. Maybe between 15-20 units?

3.) Bet Selection Overview:

A) The main Bet selection is the 3+capping bet. In the perfect shoe this is the only bet that you would have to make. However, in reality this is not the case. I am not going to describe the 3+capping bet because I have a million times. If anyone does not understand it then just post asking me to explain and I will.

B) The Secondary Bet Selection covers the recovery bets.

   -When you are recovering there are a few differing sequences that you are looking for. You do not need to do any tracking, you are betting according to how the B's and P's fall into place.

C) Streak Bet: The first Recovery Bet is a streak Bet. If you win this bet then you are done the recovery because you should have come out even.
Example:

B
B
B
B
P Bet B
P now streak Bet P for the streak Bet
P Win

D) Dominate Bet: The dominate side bet and the streak bet sort of go Hand in Hand with each other. I guess you can say that the bets compliment each other. This is because both bets run into each other. This will make sense as I explain the bet.  If you lose the streak Bet then you bet for the dominate side to return. The dominate side bet is more than likely the bet that you will see the most during the recovery period. Whenever you win the dominate bet you stay with what you have labeled as the dominate side.

When you lose you make one more dominate side bet. If you lose that bet then there should be a pattern that looks like this XX YY XX YY XX YY This is what knocks you into streak mode again. It only takes one lose in streak mode to knock you back into the dominate side bet. All of this is explained in the example below.
Example:

B
B
B
P Bet B
P now streak Bet P
B Lose now P is dominate so bet P
P win now stay with P as the dominate side
P Win Bet P
B now you stay with P as the dominate side
P Win Bet P as the dominate side still
P Win Bet P
B Lose stay with P as the dominate side
B now bet streak mode. NOTICE HOW YOU HAVE BB
P as you can see B is dominate so you bet for B
B Win now stay with B as the dominate side.
B Win
P Stay with B as dominate side
P now bet streaks on P NOTICE HOW YOU HAVE PP
P win bet P
P win Bet P

E) The Chop Bet: This is the final type of recovery Bet. You only Bet the Chops when you have a patterN such as PBP or BPB, you need 3 losses in a row, NOT 3 CHOPS IN A ROW.

Example:

B
B
B
P Bet B 3+capping
P Bet P Streak
B Notice how fast the streak bet runs into the dominate side bet Now bet P
P Win now stay with P as the dominate side
B Now stay with P for one more bet because you need BB to enter streak mode.
P Win so you are going to bet P again STILL BETTING DOMINATE SIDE.
B Lose now you have your xyx pattern (BPB) here you will bet P. There are 3 losses in a row so you are betting the chops
P Now you will bet B because you are still betting the Chops
B Win


I do not think that I am missing anything. I'll gladly answer any questions.

John thanks for the hard work you put in looks good Is there any chance you can put a couple o shoes down to show how the thing works in real

Would be appreciated

Regards Rodney

[JavierTT]

Hello! Really a big and good job.  I want to make you a question.  Its about PP BB PP BB PP. . . . .  When you find a PPP     BB PP BB PP. . .  how do you play?


Regards. 

Javier.

[JavierTT]

Yes.  I think when you find something like that PP BB PP BB, you are destroyed but only lost 1 chip with positive progression.  Do you think something about STOP when you find a PP BB PP. . . ? Perhaps it may be useful, dont you think?

Thank you for your fast answer.

Regards. 

Javier. 

[JavierTT]

Hello !!! Last night I did my first shoe in real and I think it was a really hard shoe.  Ill write it now.  How would you have played it? It is very interesting your answer for me.  Thank you again.  Greetings from Spain.

The infernal shoe:

B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
P
B
B
P
B
P
P
P
B
P
B
B
P
P
B
P
B
B
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
B
P
B
P
P
B
P
P
B
B
B
B
B
P
P
B
B
B

Javier.

[JavierTT]

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