2+capping with delayed progression

[John1234]

Natural 9- thanks for the info. I know that the casinos that I play at take 5% out. I count the commission as part of the win goal.

Sniper-  Thanks for the wish of success. I am sorry that I did not explain my view on the chop before. I was rushing to get the posts about the method out and I never thought to express my view about this aspect of the method.

[Natural9]

John let me see if I got this right you say on recovery you bet on previous outcomes but the way I see it you are betting on the time before last outcome  am I right or am I wrong

B
B
P
B capping bet
B time before last loses
B time before last win

Regards Rodney

[John1234]

I must be confused as to what previous outcome means....When I say previous outcome I mean the time before the last outcome...

So let's say that you lose the 3+capping bet, you now enter the recovery. The losing 3+capping sequence would be

B
B
P
B So now you are on B. The previous outcome from B is P...otherwise known as the time before the last outcome...So you bet for P to come next.

Does this make sense? Is previous the wrong word to use?  


------------------

and here is how I would play the sequence that you posted.

B
B
P 2+capping trigger so Bet P
B Lose. Now bet the result that was previous from B. This means you bet for P
B Lose. Now bet the result that was previous from this result. This means that you bet for B to come
B Win and again, bet for the previous result from this current result...


So maybe that is previous previous and not previous?

[roules]

John,
Why did you change the bet selection part? It isn't a big deal, as half the time it wins and half the time it loses right? I think the combination of targeting "events" like the capping method and playing a more gentle progression like you posted is a better idea for when things do go out of balance. I just finished 5 live shoes +30 but using a different bet selection, I'll post more after I've played a few more shoes. It's early days, but this progression is almost flat betting which is really cool. Now that I think about it, it's similar to a pluscoup progression.

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/money-management/pluscoup-progression-andgt-(general-knowledge)/


Also thanks for all your efforts too so far, it'd nearly kill me typing as much as you have!

R

[roules]

Another progression I just re-read was the Kelly progression, basically betting 4% of your bankroll at each play. Up as you win down as you lose. I've got it on PDF if you want I can email it or it might be in the forum somewhere. The progression you've currently got works well enough but, just thought Id throw this in the mix for you.

[Natural9]

John if you are in recovery mode and a capping bet comes up do you play it or do you still go with the time before last bet

I also posted the betting terminology in another thread for you John and others

Example

b
b
b
b
b
p
b
b
b
p
p
b
p
p
b
b
b


This tweak  might help if in recovery mode and this happens BPPBB  bet the terrible  twos  the capping bet itself takes care of the terrible twos naturally by winning every second bet but in recovery mode can hurt the BR

[John1234]

Roules:
I changed the recovery bet selection part because the original recovery bet selection only really worked on streaky shoes. I began testing it and I was running into a ton of choppy shoes and it just did not do well. When i switched the recovery bet selection it did much better with choppy shoes because it could recover. I like the idea of looking into the past events and betting based off of them. I know that some people will say that is a completely wrong way to play but after doing so much reading I am now convinced that randomness isn't so random and maybe you can use a past event to jump on either a cluster of streaks or zig zags.   

As far as the progression goes...I like positive progressions so I am interested in the details of the kelly progression. I like the progression that I have because it helps to control the amount you lose when you cannot win a bet but there are some downfalls to it. I think a major downfall is that sometimes you cannot win quick enough in the recovery which means that it takes longer to recover if you lose the first few recovery bets.

Whatever you are doing sounds interesting. I look forward to your post about it.

I have only tested about 15 shoes of the 3000 live shoes so far. I am going to post the results of the first 50. I haven't had time to continue testing. Right now I have won 14 shoes and lost 1 shoe. The shoe that lost finished -1 unit.

[John1234]

Thanks for posting the betting terminology, I'll have to take a look at it.

Your question is one that I have never considered. It is a very good question. In the last post I told Roules that out of 15 shoes it has won 14 and lost 1 shoe. The shoe that it lost in had many terrible twos. Also, the terrible twos have showed up in every shoe to slow down the recovery. My goal with this method was to use the terrible twos to our advantage however with the recovery this does not exactly happen.

You have a very good idea. Maybe switching to the capping bet during the recovery is a good idea. If we know that terrible two's are basically the only sequence that will give the recovery problems then we need to use that to our advantage and bring them into play. One thing that I hate about the recovery is that when you lose you are losing to the 2+capping pattern, a pattern that you should be winning on.

I will look into incoropoating this idea within the play. Thanks for your post.

[John1234]

Applying the 2+capping to the recovery didn't work well, however I did not apply the idea to a ton of shoes. Only a few.

But I think I did come up with something that avoids the terrible 2's. I don't know if it will work. I applied it to one shoe so far and it worked. I don't get why it worked but it did. I was just playing around with ideas.

The shoe that i applied it with originally finished -1 unit with about a 15 unit drawdown. After retesting with the idea to avoid the terrible twos it finished +6.5 units with a 4 unit drawdown. I have to see how it does on the other 14 shoes that I have tested so I am going to go back and relook at what I did.

My idea involves keeping a score but there is more to it then that. Such as resetting, stopping, holding off and so on. The idea could possible be used on it's on as a flat betting method but I don't know if it could work...who knows

[Natural9]

Thanks for posting the betting terminology, I'll have to take a look at it.

Your question is one that I have never considered. It is a very good question. In the last post I told Roules that out of 15 shoes it has won 14 and lost 1 shoe. The shoe that it lost in had many terrible twos. Also, the terrible twos have showed up in every shoe to slow down the recovery. My goal with this method was to use the terrible twos to our advantage however with the recovery this does not exactly happen.

You have a very good idea. Maybe switching to the capping bet during the recovery is a good idea. If we know that terrible two's are basically the only sequence that will give the recovery problems then we need to use that to our advantage and bring them into play. One thing that I hate about the recovery is that when you lose you are losing to the 2+capping pattern, a pattern that you should be winning on.

I will look into incoropoating this idea within the play. Thanks for your post.

John I dont mean you apply the c apping bet to it I mean you play along witnh the Twos until a  loss and then go play the normal bet you could call it the exclusion rule

Example

b
p
p
b play normal recovery rules
b terrible twos appear bet p
p  win   bet p
p  win   bet b
b  win   bet b
p  lose  bet p  time before last normal  rules for recovery

To me you are better off playing along witrh the shoe than against it

I have one more tweak I think is worth a think about you are in recovery mode this happnens PPPPPPPP after the third P you have recovered I believe you should again play along with the shoe to the streak ends you may catch lot more extra units that way also this scenario BPBPBPBPB play along with the chops I hav e seen it happen many times on the bac table do it expecially when you near your win goal or about to exit the shoe I have seen it alot in testing I have looked over 25 shoes and results have been very positive specially using exclusion rule and even without it

Anyhow that my 2 pennies for what its worth

Regards  Rodney

[John1234]

Natural 9-

Wow, I am sorry...I completely misunderstood your post. Now I get what you are saying...it sounds like a great idea. You are right to play with the shoe rather than against it. I guess that does make so much more sense. I also like the sound of your tweak. Thank you very much for the two ideas I want to put them to the test right away but I have to go to bed.

I am going to add your ideas to the method and test it. Your posts are exactly what I need to help me achieve a better method.

Before you posted, I mentioned something about an idea that I had that involves keeping a score. I tested it on about 15 shoes, then I saw your post. I have a question to ask about the idea that I have. I just want to let you know that this post will not be left aside...I just want to deal with this question first. I am going to post it in a new post.

[John1234]

As of now Natural 9 has come up with two great ideas to improve the recovery. I want to begin testing the ideas but there is a question that I need to ask first.

This afternoon I was playing around with some recovery ideas. I came up with an idea in about 5 minutes. I have only tested it on 15 shoes (the same 15 that I tested the first 2+capping method on) and the results shocked me. Every shoe finished between +6 to +7 units without playing the entire shoe. And only two shoes had a drawdown no greater than 6 units.

With the good results I am kind of confused. I am confused because I do not know why what I am doing is working. Can somebody please explain to me what I am doing and if I am just making a simple bet selection more complicated then it should be?

Here is what I have been doing. I will explain it the best that I can for right now.

-I make a normal 2+capping bet and if I win then I win
-If I lose the 2+capping bet then I bet the chop to recovery to even. Same way I started as before.So this bet would look like this:
B
B
P 2+capping
B Lose now bet P
P Win  Even

-If I lose the chop bet then This is where I begin the count. There are rules to the count which has made it successful so far. First I will present the basic idea.

Well actually I don't know the theory behind it because I don't get why it has been successful so far, so I can't present the basic idea. But anyway here is what the count is:

-the count looks like this P V B

P will always be on the P side and B will always be on the B side.

You simply add each player and banker to the count (only when in recovery mode)

So pretend we lost the capping bet and the chop bet. Now here is how you keep count:

P 1v0
P 2v0
B 2v1
B 2v2
B 2v3
P 3v3
P 4v3
B 4v4
P 5v4

The count dictates which bet you are going to make. In order to know which bet to make during the recovery you must first look at the count and second know the rules that go along with the count.

Here are the rules:

1.) You make your bet based on which side is higher in the count. So if the count is 5-4 you bet for Player. If the count is 4-6 you bet banker. You always begin your count with either 0v1 or 1v0, whichever outcome came out. You start your count after the chop bet.
2.) Even, No Bet Rule: When the count gets even you do not bet. You stop and wait. for either the P or B to add one to the count
3.) Zag Zag Rule: The second time that the count is even you bet zig zags. Even though the count is even you MAKE A BET. When you bet zig zags you are still keeping proper count. After the zig zags break you go back to betting based on the higher count.


Example

B
B
P 2+capping
B Lose Now bet Chop so bet P
B Lose, Now you enter the count recovery your count starts at 0v1 so you bet for B
P Lose Now your count is 1v1 so you do not bet
B Lose Now your count is 1v2 so you bet B
P Lose now your count is 2v2, this is the second even count so you enter zig zag mode, bet B
B Win now your count is 2v3 but stay with zig zag
P Win--count 3v3 zz mode
B Win count 3v4 zz mode bet P
B Lose count 3-5 zig zag mode is broken now back to normal count mode.

4.) Terrible Two's Rule: When the count is even for the second time you be the terrible two's until broken then resume normal count bets.Same as zig zag rule

Example

B
B
P 2+capping bet
B Chop Bet
B Lose Now start count bets--count is 0v1 so bet B
P Lose now count is 1v1 so wait
P Lose now count is 2v1 so bet P
B Win Now count is 2v2 second even so bet B
B Win count is 2v3 you are in terrible two mode so bet P
P Win count is 3v3 terrible two mode so bet P
B Lose count is 3v4, terrible two mode is broken so resume with normal count bets, bet B
B Win

5.) Difference of 2 rule and qualification: The difference of 2 means that the difference between the player side and banker side is at least 2. If this happens then you switch sides but it must fall under a certain qualification to take place. First here is an example.  

difference of two could be 4v2, 5v7 and so on.

lets say that your count is 5v1 and then B is the next outcome. This makes your count 5v2. Now the difference of 2 rule comes into play. since the difference of 2 rule is in play you bet for B rather than P. This is because you expect B to begin to show up. Here is the most important aspect to this rule: A certain qualification must take place.
-For the difference of 2 rule to be triggered you need to have had a side streak for more than 2 plays and it can not go into effect within the very beginning of the recovery.

Here is an example of when not to use the difference of two rule

B
B
P
B
B count mode 0v1
B 0v2
P 1v2
B 1v3
B 1v4
P 2v4 --as you can see this is the beginning of the progression. Do not enter the difference of 2 mode.

here is an example of when to use the difference of two mode:

B
B
P
B
B count mode 0v1
B 0v2
B 0v3
B 0v4
B 0v5
P 1v5 now use the difference of 2
P 2v5 stay with P

You are expecting the other side to even out.

If you win then you stay with the winning bet until it losses at that point you bet based off the count

If it losses then you are out of difference of two mode until the trigger appears again.


6.) Reset rule: After you finish each recovery you reset the count. This seems to work better then keeping a constant count for the entire shoe.




I use the normal progression and it has not lost yet.

If this seems complicated it is not. I seriously made this up in 5 minutes. The most important thing is to know the rules and how to apply them to the betting. That takes only a few shoes to get good at.


So why has this been working? Am I just making a basic bet selection more complex? Or is there something to this idea? I have managed to confuse myself.

[Natural9]

As of now Natural 9 has come up with two great ideas to improve the recovery. I want to begin testing the ideas but there is a question that I need to ask first.

This afternoon I was playing around with some recovery ideas. I came up with an idea in about 5 minutes. I have only tested it on 15 shoes (the same 15 that I tested the first 2+capping method on) and the results shocked me. Every shoe finished between +6 to +7 units without playing the entire shoe. And only two shoes had a drawdown no greater than 6 units.

With the good results I am kind of confused. I am confused because I do not know why what I am doing is working. Can somebody please explain to me what I am doing and if I am just making a simple bet selection more complicated then it should be?

Here is what I have been doing. I will explain it the best that I can for right now.

-I make a normal 2+capping bet and if I win then I win
-If I lose the 2+capping bet then I bet the chop to recovery to even. Same way I started as before.So this bet would look like this:
B
B
P 2+capping
B Lose now bet P
P Win  Even

-If I lose the chop bet then This is where I begin the count. There are rules to the count which has made it successful so far. First I will present the basic idea.

Well actually I don't know the theory behind it because I don't get why it has been successful so far, so I can't present the basic idea. But anyway here is what the count is:

-the count looks like this P V B

P will always be on the P side and B will always be on the B side.

You simply add each player and banker to the count (only when in recovery mode)

So pretend we lost the capping bet and the chop bet. Now here is how you keep count:

P 1v0
P 2v0
B 2v1
B 2v2
B 2v3
P 3v3
P 4v3
B 4v4
P 5v4

The count dictates which bet you are going to make. In order to know which bet to make during the recovery you must first look at the count and second know the rules that go along with the count.

Here are the rules:

1.) You make your bet based on which side is higher in the count. So if the count is 5-4 you bet for Player. If the count is 4-6 you bet banker. You always begin your count with either 0v1 or 1v0, whichever outcome came out. You start your count after the chop bet.
2.) Even, No Bet Rule: When the count gets even you do not bet. You stop and wait. for either the P or B to add one to the count
3.) Zag Zag Rule: The second time that the count is even you bet zig zags. Even though the count is even you MAKE A BET. When you bet zig zags you are still keeping proper count. After the zig zags break you go back to betting based on the higher count.


Example

B
B
P 2+capping
B Lose Now bet Chop so bet P
B Lose, Now you enter the count recovery your count starts at 0v1 so you bet for B
P Lose Now your count is 1v1 so you do not bet
B Lose Now your count is 1v2 so you bet B
P Lose now your count is 2v2, this is the second even count so you enter zig zag mode, bet B
B Win now your count is 2v3 but stay with zig zag
P Win--count 3v3 zz mode
B Win count 3v4 zz mode bet P
B Lose count 3-5 zig zag mode is broken now back to normal count mode.

4.) Terrible Two's Rule: When the count is even for the second time you be the terrible two's until broken then resume normal count bets.Same as zig zag rule

Example

B
B
P 2+capping bet
B Chop Bet
B Lose Now start count bets--count is 0v1 so bet B
P Lose now count is 1v1 so wait
P Lose now count is 2v1 so bet P
B Win Now count is 2v2 second even so bet B
B Win count is 2v3 you are in terrible two mode so bet P
P Win count is 3v3 terrible two mode so bet P
B Lose count is 3v4, terrible two mode is broken so resume with normal count bets, bet B
B Win

5.) Difference of 2 rule and qualification: The difference of 2 means that the difference between the player side and banker side is at least 2. If this happens then you switch sides but it must fall under a certain qualification to take place. First here is an example. 

difference of two could be 4v2, 5v7 and so on.

lets say that your count is 5v1 and then B is the next outcome. This makes your count 5v2. Now the difference of 2 rule comes into play. since the difference of 2 rule is in play you bet for B rather than P. This is because you expect B to begin to show up. Here is the most important aspect to this rule: A certain qualification must take place.
-For the difference of 2 rule to be triggered you need to have had a side streak for more than 2 plays and it can not go into effect within the very beginning of the recovery.

Here is an example of when not to use the difference of two rule

B
B
P
B
B count mode 0v1
B 0v2
P 1v2
B 1v3
B 1v4
P 2v4 --as you can see this is the beginning of the progression. Do not enter the difference of 2 mode.

here is an example of when to use the difference of two mode:

B
B
P
B
B count mode 0v1
B 0v2
B 0v3
B 0v4
B 0v5
P 1v5 now use the difference of 2
P 2v5 stay with P

You are expecting the other side to even out.

If you win then you stay with the winning bet until it losses at that point you bet based off the count

If it losses then you are out of difference of two mode until the trigger appears again.


6.) Reset rule: After you finish each recovery you reset the count. This seems to work better then keeping a constant count for the entire shoe.




I use the normal progression and it has not lost yet.

If this seems complicated it is not. I seriously made this up in 5 minutes. The most important thing is to know the rules and how to apply them to the betting. That takes only a few shoes to get good at.


So why has this been working? Am I just making a basic bet selection more complex? Or is there something to this idea? I have managed to confuse myself.

well I am not sure why just by playing the original rules with the exclusion it seems to win quite easily even with flat betting you get to your win target by flat betting 80 per cent of the time I think

i not even tested using a progression but have been doing it in my head for the time being out of 30 shoes one shoe lost about 10 units flat bet some if played out won over 15 units but my testing hasnt been to scientific these are approximate
stop loss flat bet bout 15 units and with progression bout twice that I think

[John1234]

so you are saying to not use the progression with the exclusion rule and the tweak that you provided? just flat bet? I like the sound of that.

[dennisbelle]

John,
   I don't understand why your first example of the "difference of two" does not apply and in your second example the "difference of two" does apply, can you clarify?

[dennisbelle]

-