Roulette Fact and Fiction

[john_solitude]

[size=14]While browsing through the stats of our website  nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be, we noticed we started receiving several visitors from active threads on this forum.

About seven years ago, we started playing roulette with several friends.

We went into gambling parlors not only for entertainment, but also professional reasons.
I was working for the community at that time, who were conducting an investigation on the fairness of the games on offer in the new gambling parlors in our city.

I do have a social degree and I might say I have investigated the gambling scene to a wide extent.

While searching the internet for info on gambling, like many of you, we came across several websites who offered systems, devices and strategies for ridicilous prizes AND commercial sellers who did not warn about the risk involved, using the products they endorsed, or who deliberatelly would try to create the illusion, one could win a fortune by playing roulette, if only one bought this or that ridicilously expensive system, device or strategy.

I would like to warn players about these scam businesses, as while we investigated we have exposed many of them for being cheap conmen, who took advantage from people who did not have sufficient knowledge about statistics or math to realize they were being fooled.

You can read all about this investigation on nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/scams.html .

We do know from experience stating to people 'do not play roulette' has no use.

Rather, if you decide to play roulette, play as rational as you can and use probability theory to figure out the odds. It will give you a far better and realistic view on what you might expect.

There for, at that time we created the extensive free pdf-guide John Solitude Wheel Frequency Analysis (which can still be downloaded from several websites including the Roulette Xtreme website).
A full system which uses probabilitytheory to analyze the odds.

However it needs to be said: although this system uses probabilitytheory as much as possible it is not risk free. As any mathematical system, luck is still a major factor.

Believe it or not: roulette can be beaten in the short and even medium, but not the long term (I'm speaking on a couple of thousand played spins, depending on the betting behavior).

The longer one plays, the higher the risk of losing your bankroll.

Why is this? You can read all about it, in the follow up:

'Roulette Fact and Fiction' (125 pg. of essential and free roulette information) was published in 2006 and can still be downloaded for free on our site  in the download section. nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html#JSFFguide

This guide is specifically aimed at people who do not have previous math or statistical knowledge and who wish to learn in an easy to understand manner, using roulette as an example. It also covers topics as standard deviation, probability theory, bias analysis, investigation on visual ballistics, scams, ...

Also there is a wealth of free and decently researched information on our site, which is based on the experience of several years of playing, investigating and reading:

The psychology of gambling: how the casino will try to trap you, how to counteract the psychology the casino uses
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/psychology.html

Roulette ABC: all the typical roulette terms explained
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/abc.html

Roulette questions: all the typical questions players have asked us
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/questions.html

And finally, our download section:
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html

Also, please note that the pdf-guide we distribute is a FREE download. As such we do not have to endorse a product: we can give you the facts and nothing but the facts. It has 125 pg of information, examining different full systems and strategies of playing.

However, we do also need to pay annually for the registration and hosting of our website which is AD FREE (except for the links to books we read ourselves and recommend on Amazon). This is not adding the large amount of energy that went into investigating and writing the free 125 pg. pdf-guide and the development of the website.

[size=14]So please, if you find you had use for our information or you do wish to support our project by players for players, please consider making a small donation on our download page.[/size]

Or you can contribute to the further development of our project and thank us by getting a copy of our spreadsheet for the correct statistical analysis of roulette outcomes (only 7 $ donation), including a feature which does allow you to recognise bias if it would occur. It was developed by a qualified statistician and is easy to use. You do not need any math or statistical knowledge to operate the spreadsheet.

nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html#JSExcel

Thanks for your support, the people who wrote in and good luck.[/size]

[admin]

Welcome!

It is a great pleasure to have you around here.

I have to congratulate you for your work and I have several offerings/questions:

- I offer you to host your ebook here for free. OK?
- I want to know how large is your site (in megabytes) and how much is your monthly traffic to see if I can make space for you at our current webhosting server, so your site's operative cost gets reduced to the $10/year .com fee.
- If you want to add a revenue stream for your website without having to sell anything (you get paid per the click regardless if the visitor buys) you can spark-up 3FN links on your pages or make a separate window for them, you only have to to sign-up up here: nolinks://marketing.3fn.net/signup.php?ref=vlsroulette , I'll personally provide you the server-side code I made to parse the incoming links and guide you in the integration process.
- I use micfo, for $9.95/mo I have 5000MB space and 100GB bandwidth. As you can see it is enough to host several sites. If you want to check it out you can follow: nolinks://nolinks.micfo.com/cgi-bin/affiliates/clickthru.cgi?id=victor

(Yes, those are affiliate links, but if you do sign-up using then as a bonus you'll help us over here too. Anyway, tell me your site's descriptions to see if I can hook you up for free to lighten up your "hosting billing", anyway it goes someone gets helped [smiley=thumbsup.gif]).



Hope to have you around for the long run.

Don't worry, unlike that place named Gamblers' Glen, we are very friendly over here. We are always open to learn as much from this wonderful game as possible; and you certainly have something to say about it; we are all ears!

...Just like Mr. J (Ken) said at the chat: it is not how many features a forum has, it HOW we -the people- make use of the forum.

Best regards from a friend,
Victor

[john_solitude]

Hey Victor,

Thanks for your offer and your kind welcome.

I explored the link  nolinks://marketing.3fn.net/signup.php?ref=vlsroulette and got the following message '502 bad gateway.'

We are willing to place reasonable ads on the Roulette Fact and Fiction site, however when we first opened the site nearly 2 years ago, we did have a bad experience using Google.

Not only, at the time, was Google flooded with ads from the same people we found out to be conmen,
it simply wasn't possible to monitor the site 24/24 to weed out the Google ads.

Last november we have extended our annual hosting contract with our provider, so I have to decline your hosting offer for the moment, but unless we receive extra income from introducing ads on the site, we do consider to discontinue the website, unless it becomes at least self supportive during the next year.

Although we did have some generous donators at the time, all our donators were mentioned on the hall of fame page nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/hall_of_fame.html , but these are all the people who donated during a nearly two year period (so, as one can see for themselves, they are not so numerous).

As far as 'being around' is concerned:

As you may remember, several people involved in the Roulette Fact and Fiction project, went through hard times in extensive and fierce forum discussions trying to demask conmen (including e-mail flooding and we even had a DNS attack on our website) at the time.

One should realise for some people, commercially endorsing roulette systems, strategies and devices is a magnificent and sure way of earning an (extra) income (far more than actually playing roulette  
As such, they would do anything to protect the income of basically being a con artist.

Basically, anything we know about roulette, can be read in our site or in our free Roulette Fact and Fiction pdf guide nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html

Since it was published, we didn't find any new elements to add,
so we consider it to be our definitive guide to roulette.

People are free to explore and believe the content or not, we can only expect not one mathematician or statistician would disagree with the guide, except for a few typo's here and there or disagreement on matters which are more a question of opinion than statements which can be investigated.

So, I will not, engage into endless discussions again, because it would only be a repetition of what has been written and discussed all before.

Merely I noticed many visitors from this forum found our site, so I would like to thank the forum and the visitors for their interest and hope some of them may wish to express their support
nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html with a small donation,
so we can keep the site Ad free and self supportive into the future.

Next weekend we will also add a link to this forum, as a thank you for bringing us an increased amount of traffic.

Indeed, this is a friendly forum, and I do hope the moderators can keep it this way.

With friendly regards and good luck,

Clercx

[hermes]

Hi John,
It is nice to have you here. Look at the system from Advanced.Player "the sectors?" and help us to move it forwards. We are stuck on the end. It is a teeneger brother of your Raindrop. We know each other for some time alkready.
[smiley=dankk2.gif] Hermes

[admin]

Hey Victor,

Thanks for your offer and your kind welcome.

We appreciate fine people here mate.
In fact, I have another proposition to make: You can have your own section: Ask John Solitude. What do you say?
This way people around can offer feedback to your e-book and directly ask you for your opinion regarding X or Y topic/doubt/strategy, etc. I think the guys will like it and I'm very willing to make you a section.

I explored the link  nolinks://marketing.3fn.net/signup.php?ref=vlsroulette and got the following message '502 bad gateway.'

In the morning it was providing that 502 error. It is fixed now, please try again. [ch61514]

We are willing to place reasonable ads on the Roulette Fact and Fiction site, however when we first opened the site nearly 2 years ago, we did have a bad experience using Google.

The fine thing with 3fn is the ads do not have to be about roulette at all. So that issue with the "con men" is not really an issue with them.

Last november we have extended our annual hosting contract with our provider, so I have to decline your hosting offer for the moment, but unless we receive extra income from introducing ads on the site, we do consider to discontinue the website, unless it becomes at least self supportive during the next year.

Please do not under any circumstance think about discontinuing your website. You are certainly a reference. There is people who truly appreciate your work, and they deserve to count on your website for the long run, plus over here we care about the roulette community and it will certainly be a loss. Be certain you have the space with us guaranteed. With the affordable hosting prices we are enjoying at micfo, I'm sure hosting your site won't be an issue. So avoid the thought of shutting down the site, we will gladly host it for you when your current term ends. The 3fn clicks can pay for the domain bill, and even if they don't, getting rid of the hosting bill will certainly cut the operative cost a lot. We are here to help.

I have been offering webhosting accounts to several "roulette people" like Spino, Arteinvivo, GGasoft and I even offered TurboGenius the FTP and DNS data for him to move his site to our servers before considering deletion. I apologized for the inconvenient we had in the past regarding his "holy grail", but no response [smiley=huh.gif] Still the offer is open for him.

The only thing I ask to know is an estimate of your webpace and bandwidth. I doubt we would need to upgrade our hosting, there is enough to spare with the current 5000 MB hardrive space and 100GB bandwidth we have with our current plan.

Next weekend we will also add a link to this forum, as a thank you for bringing us an increased amount of traffic.

Please link to the homepage: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/

I am making the 2008 re-launch with VLSroulette.com/site, VLSroulette.com/forum, VLSroulette.com/chat and VLSroulette.com/software linked from the initial landing page, so it will be the most adviceable for you to link to the the home nolinks://vlsroulette.com/

Thank you very much!

Indeed, this is a friendly forum, and I do hope the moderators can keep it this way.

We are a family here dear friend. Hopefully you'll agree to have your section to check it here and there when you have time and we can have your roulette wisdom consulted for the benefit of the readers.

I have to say when I entered reading the English forums, among my favorite posters were you and Arteinvivo. I made a friendship with Arte but never could really get to know you, I am very pleased of counting with your presence around now.

Best regards from a friend,
Victor.

[xman1970]

Mr.Solitude, Just many many thanks your facts n figures your time n effort are greatly appreciated  [smiley=wink.gif]

Hopefully you will take up Victor's offer of your own section.....


For me the pair of you are my two greatest icons   for knowledge and facts in the world of roulette..... [smiley=wink.gif]


I for one (And there are many many more of us) hope you will take Victor up on his offer....


Everyone will learn....

And for that I thank you both with all my heart  [smiley=thumbsup.gif] [smiley=thumbsup.gif] [smiley=thumbsup.gif]


BTW, good work VLS John is a very valuable source to add to this forum....

[hammy]

Thanks John Solitude and Victor for making your manual available, very interesting !

hammy

[Jakkalsdraai]

Hey John Solitude, welcome, and thanks for your e-book etc. Also hope You'll take up Vic's proposal.

Thanks again! [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Kind regards
Jakkalsdraai

[addonai]

Welcome John to board.

It is great to have you between us.

[john_solitude]

@ Victor

In fact, I have another proposition to make: You can have your own section: Ask John Solitude. What do you say? This way people around can offer feedback to your e-book and directly ask you for your opinion regarding X or Y topic/doubt/strategy, etc. I think the guys will like it and I'm very willing to make you a section.

Sorry, it took me a while to respond. I was out for a few days.

I do appreciate the offer, Victor and we do look forward to having our own section 'Ask John Solitude', answering questions.

We always aspire to give people fair and balanced answers concerning gambling related questions,
so the readers do know, what risk they might expect and what pitfalls to avoid.

However, writing out balanced answers and trying to educate people on gambling related matters, also takes up a fair bit of time, so if the posters are a bit patient and do not expect an answer the same day, we think we can do that.

Just let us know when you get the section installed and we will be prepared.

Tomorrow (sunday 16th ) we are updating our website, so we'll include the link you gave into our forum section links and also check out the possibility to include ads from the site you recommend,
using the VLS link.

Concerning the traffic on our website: it's pretty small small actually, around 50 MB last time I checked, that's the 12,5 MB free guide included. The traffic is also certainly within the boundaries you specified, around 1.500 to 2.000 pagehits a month.

However, the contract with our provider finishes 26th nov. 2008, so it's not an issue at this moment.

Looking forward to our cooperation.

[size=14]Readers wondering what this is all about,
can download our free Roulette Fact and Fiction guide:[/size]

[size=16]nolinks://nolinks.john-solitude.be/download.html[/size]

If there are any questions on the guide, our website, our something you always wanted to know about gambling, but were afraid to ask: we're looking forward to try and answer them in the 'Ask John Solitude' section.

[addonai]

It is nice to have a section for you John to help players.

congratulations and welcome.
cheers

[admin]

It is nice to have a section for you John to help players.

It is indeed:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/forum/YaBB.pl?board=john_solitude

As a matter of fact, you are reading this thread on John's Section now [smiley=wink.gif]

[toby]

Hi JS, nice to talk to you and a pleasure. I´ve read your e-book some time ago and played your way many times, most successfully.
What I found really risky is a martingale-type of stake as soon as you wait for the proper event. Sometimes the sleep keeps on and on so a short prog I´d say sinks.
Nowadays I have your system filed in my notes but not asleep. I share most of your ideas stated in the e-book.
The way I found the most interesting is to apply a stepladder prog and pushing the virtual game to its limits increasing 15% in the wait.
The other tweak is to wait for the event and before start betting we need at least 1 hit in the sector, then we resume with the stepladder prog.
My recommendations are only to clarify some way to improve the system if any.

best regard

[Compa]

VERY Nice to see you Introducing yourself and your work here at the Forum. A Hughe welcome to you! And thanks again for a tremendeously Great E-Book.

Regards
/Compa

[john_solitude]

@ Toby

Thanks for your comment.

What I found really risky is a martingale-type of stake as soon as you wait for the proper event. Sometimes the sleep keeps on and on so a short prog I´d say sinks.

This problem, as with any mathematical probability system, is a dilemma:

A short progression does decrease the probability percentage you get a hit on the sector (you have less attempts, so the probability is lower)
A longer progression increases the probability percentage you receive a hit on the sector,
but increases  the amount of capital invested (more trials = more invested capital).

On average the longer the progression the more succesfull attempts you will have, but on some occasions this will not work out right and can result in a serious loss of capital (you'll either run into table limits or when you receive a hit, the return will not be enough to regain the invested capital).

- When will this happen:
 Lady Fortuna will decide on this one  (or in statistical terms, how kind or hostile the standard deviation is on the specific roulette session you are playing).

This is the main reason why people report so many different results using the same system or strategy and there is an enormous amount of 'hear says'.

The fact is: each roulette session is a highly unique mathematical event: the sheer amount of possibilities is enormous, almost infinite. Although the probability calculations are the same for tables around the world, not one mathematician or statistician can say with certainty that even the most remote combination of outcomes will not occur the moment you are playing. If we could do so, each statistician or mathematician would just head out to the casino and play himself to riches.

You can pick systems or strategies, which offer a high probability to receive a hit and you are winning money for a small or longer amount of time, but even the highest probability (on pocket calculators this is mostly six digits behind the comma), something like 99,999999... is no certainty.

No one can calculate if that remote possibility would come up on your very first session, or on session 200. This will be totally up to standard deviation on which the player has no control over what so ever (unless one would be very certain one is playing a biased wheel > and even this chance is very remote in today's modern casino environment).

To get the figures up that high (99.999999) would also require a very large amount of invested capital.      

The JSWFA was originally designed for automated mechanical rapid roulette tables, on which the stake could go as low as 0.25 euro and these tables had a wide spread, so we were able to push the probabilityfigures up as high as possible, without risking and arm and a leg when we didn't receive a hit.

In general the spread (the difference between min and max bet) on dealer operated tables is smaller and the minimum bet is higher.

What the best route is (a shorter or longer progression), is mainly a question of temperament of the player and the amount of capital risk one is prepared to take. I would say: choose the style you feel comfortable with, accepting the fact that also a longer progression can and will run into trouble on some blue monday.

[john_solitude]

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