new system

[John1234]

I changed part this system. The changes are outlined a few pages into this thread.


I'm going to work on this a little at a time. I'll just keep updating this post:

It is a very simple system to play but I need to present the idea behind it before I can post it. So I will do that first then I will post it. This system does not rely on triggers and it flat bets most of the time. A safe up as you win prog is used from time to time and the highest bet is 3 units which is rare to make. The progression is only used to get to the win goal faster so you don't need to sit there for a whole shoe and play.

I have been using this system for about 3 weeks. It has not lost yet but that doesn't mean that it will never lose. It could suck, who knowns maybe I was getting lucky. I finished +150 units live on bet phoenix. I am not sure how many shoes I played it on I made the mistake of not saving my shoes. I was going to wait awhile until I posted it because I really want to test it good but I don't have the time to test. Also testing this system is a bit unique because you need to have consecutative shoes so you have to play live unless you have shoes from the same table. I'll go in more depth with testing after I explain the system.
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Update:

So here is the idea behind the system:

I made a post about using the previous shuffle to win. This is an idea that I thought of about a month ago (I'm sure that someone thought of it before me though) and I forgot about it then returned to it about 4 weeks ago. To understand the system you need to understand my logic behind it. So here it is...

The idea behind the system is that we want to exploit the shuffle. We can gather all sorts of knowledge about the shuffle and use this to our advantage. This knowledge can be acquired through various resources which can be found online using google and through other forums. So here are two basic facts that we know...1.) I have read and been told that it takes about 7-9 riffle shuffles to randomize a deck of playing cards. 2.) I have also been told that clumping may occur during shuffle. We will use these observations to form the framework of the system. And we can also use another observation to our advantage. This observation is that a shuffle never seems to be exactly the same as the previous shuffle and it also never seems to be totally different than the last shoe. This could be a result of the effectiveness of the shuffle and clumping.

Now we need to go one step further by looking into the the shoe and applying the observations about the shuffle to the game. If we are using an 8 deck shoe then there are 416 cards in a shoe (8*52=416). Each card  must fall into a certain position (or the card would not exist in the shoe), I will call the position that a cards falls into a slot. Since there are 416 cards in an 8 deck shoe there are 416 slots. Again, each card falls into one slot. The slots are always the same (1, 2, 3, 4, etc..) but the cards are different. If the first card of shoe A is a 6 of clubs then the 6 of clubs is in slot 1. If the 4th card of shoe A is a 5 of hearts then the 5 of hearts is in slot 4. So now we need to apply the observations to the make up of the shoe.

From the two observations we can summarize that the shoe B will never be exactly the same as shoe A but shoe B will also not be totally different from shoe A. This means that::

1.) the cards of shoe B are falling either in the same slots as the cards as shoe A or  (in this case both shoes are the same)
2.) The cards of shoe B are falling close to but not in the same slots as shoe A.  (in this case both shoes are different but at times could be the same)

Now this idea is not foolproof because baccarat is unique in the fact that it uses multiple cards in a single decision. However, if you can determine what the majority of the cards are doing then we will know what to bet. We can do this and we do not need to track the individual cards. We simply track the decisions because it is much eaiser to do than tracking the cards and it seems to give a somewhat arruract insight to how close the cards are falling to their original slots.

there are 2 different bets that you can make.

Bet 1: You bet for the current shoe to be the same as the previous shoe.
Bet 2: You bet for the current shoe to be the opposite of the previous shoe.

Bet 1 and Bet 2 often flip flop with eachother within a given shoe. For example you may go through a section of a shoe where shoe B is the same as shoe A. Then during a shoe you will see that a section of shoe B is different than shoe A. This is something that we need to use to our advantage and this is where tracking comes in.

You will rarely see an entire shoe where shoe B is the same or different than shoe A. The two bets often flip flop.

I am getting tired so I am going to stop for now. Tomorrow I will finish it up.

I no longer play the system the way that it about to be described. It has changed. and the changes are outlined a few pages into the thread.

The rest of this post should finish most of what I have to say about the method and how to play it.

The two types of bets:
1.) you bet for the current shoe to be the same as the previous shoe
2.) Or you bet for the current shoe to be opposite the last shoe.

As I said before, it is rare to play a shoe that is composed of all Bet 1's and all Bet 2's. When I first started the system I played it with the idea that the shoe would always be opposite of the previous shoe. that was a mistake because the shoe goes through periods where it is just like the previous shoe and where it is opposite of the previous shoe. So basically what you are trying to do is match up the sections of both shoes. This will make more sense by the end of the post.

Now I will explain how to play.

Tracking: There are two types of tracking. The first tracking is the tracking of the games and the second tracking is tracking whether the decsions are landing in the the same or opposite slots of the previous shoe. First I will explain tracking of the games.

I have not played this at a land casino and I probably will not get to do so for awhile. So I can't give much insight on how to track live. I assume that you can sit there and make some bets or stand back and track. When I play online I just just sit there and track each decision in excel.
You need to track one entire shoe. I don't make bets when I track the first shoe. However if this is something that you would like to do then that is up to you. At a land casino you would have to make bets unless you stand back from table.

-The first shoe that you track is Shoe A.
-Number each decision of shoe A. For example, the first decision is #1, the second decision is #2 and so on.
-You will begin betting during the second shoe which is shoe B.
-As you track shoe B make sure that it is next to the previous shoe (shoe A) so that the number of the decisions match up. For example: Decision 1 of shoe A should be next to decision 1 of shoe B. Decision 2 of shoe A should be next to decision 2 of shoe B and so on.
-After shoe B is complete you will begin shoe C. You will play shoe C and track shoe C just like you tracked shoe B. Again, make sure that the number decisions of shoe C match with the number decisions of B.
-During shoe C you will be using shoe B as the previous shoe to work off of.
-When you play shoe D you will be using shoe C as the previous shoe to work off of. And you continue to do this.
-After you leave the table or if you miss a shoe then you can no longer use the previous shoe. When you go to play again after a break you MUST track one entire shoe again. And this shoe will be shoe A.
-A session consists of continuous play at the same table. It always starts at shoe A.

Before I talk about the next type of tracking I will explain how to bet.

Betting:
-Your bet will be based off what happened in the current shoe and what happened in the previous shoe.
-You will look back at the individual decisions and compare them to the current decisions this is why it is important to match up the numbers of the decisions during tracking. If this is not done then you could get lost.
-Do not bet the first decision. This is for tracking purposes which will be explained soon.

When to bet the opposite: If the decision of the current shoe is the opposite of the decision of the previous shoe then you bet for the next decision of the current shoe to bet the opposite of the next decision of the previous shoe.
Example:

Shoe A         Shoe B
1) B           1.) P   --P is opposite B so you look at the next decision of shoe A. This decision is P so you bet for B. You are betting the opp.
2) P          2.) B ---You win. B is the opposite of P. So you look to the next decision of shoe A and you bet the opposite. You are betting for P
3) B          3.) P----YOU win and do the same, you are betting for P next
4) B          4.) P --you win and do the same

When to bet that both shoes will be the same: If the decision of the current shoe is the same as the decision of the previous shoe then you bet for the next decision of the current shoe to be the same as the next decision of the previous shoe.

Example:

Shoe A        Shoe B
1) B        1.) B-- We have a B in shoe A at #1 and a B in shoe B at #1. Both are the same. Bet for the next decision to be the same as #2 in shoe A.
2) P       2.) P---You Win. Both decisions are the same. Bet for the next decision to be the same as the next decision in shoe A. Bet for B.
3) B       3.) B --You Win..Do the same. Bet for B
4) B      4.) B--You win, do the same. Bet for the next decision of shoe B to be the same as the next decision of shoe A.

During a Tie you do not Bet.

Example

Shoe A       Shoe B
1) P          1.) P --looking at the next bet of shoe A you see that you have a tie. Do not bet.
2) T          2.) No Bet (lets say that a P came out) Now you have a P in the next decision and since the last decision was the same but the same way.
3) P          3.) P --Win

When you have a tie in Shoe A, do not bet that decision of shoe B. Then bet bet the same way as the last outcome before the tie.

It is possible to bet ties but I don't like to. If you want to bet ties then I have noticed that ties seems to come 3 decisions before or after the Tie in the previous shoe. And many ties often fall in the exact same slot as the previous shoe.

Tracking when to bet for the current shoe to be the same or opposite the previous shoe:

A tracking method is needed so you know which side to bet. As I said before, sticking to betting just one side an entire shoe may not work all the time. It didn't work for me.

I made a tracking method which is very simple. It uses a count. The count works like this:

-There are two sides to the count. The current shoe being the same as the previous shoe goes on YOUR right side and the current shoe being opposite the previous shoe goes on YOUR left side  In the middle I stick a V. The V means versus.  
So it should look like this:  current shoe opposite the previous shoe V current shoe the same as previous shoe.

-With the count you are simply adding 1 to each side.
-When Shoe B is the same as shoe A, you add 1 to the right side.
-When shoe B is opposite shoe A, you add 1 to the left side.
-You bet based off which side has the higher count.
-You do not bet when the count is even.

The count should dictate which side is dominate during play. It should show what a given section of the shoe is doing. this means that you should have a somewhat accurate idea of whether the cards are falling into their original slots or not.
-You do not bet when the count is even because the two sides are switching with each other at a 1:1 rate. This is bad so you don't bet because you want to avoid this situation.

UPDATE: I think I forgot to add this.You always bet the side that has the higher count.
So if the count is 2v0 and the last decision was of the same. Then the count is now 2v1. Since the opposite side has the higher count, you bet for the opposite. ---This is important


Here are some more rules with the count:

-After a count totaling 5 has been established you reset the count to 0v1 or 1v0. You do not reset the count to 0v0.  
-The side that gets the 1 pt is the side that occurred last. So if shoe B is was the same as shoe A then the right side gets 1 (0v1). If shoe B is opposite shoe A then the left side gets 1pt (1v0). a count will never go above 5.

Here are some example counts:
0v1, 2v0, 2v1, 1v1, 2v3 (this would be reset), 4v0, 0v4.

Final rule with counts and betting:
Do not bet the first decision. Before the shoe even starts you are at 0v0. This is a tie so you don't bet. The first decision will add 1pt to either the right or left side. You will begin betting the second decision based off the count.


Progression:

I prefer to flat bet but sometimes it takes too long to recover. So I use a slight positive progression that is only used when you start to get down. This is inspired by marven's 5 level staking plan.

the progression looks like this 1-1 (3 level staking plan)--safer version

-You start by betting 1 unit.
-If you win then you continue to bet 1 unit.

-If you lose then you bet 1 unit again
-If you win the second 1 unit bet then you are recovered and you go back to the 1st 1 unit bet. and continue to flat bet.

-If you lose the second 1 unit bet then you start the 3 level staking plan. The plan will start with an L. this means that you are making another 1 unit bet.
-If you win then the staking plan looks like this LW. So you need to bet 1 unit again.
-If you win then the staking plan looks like this LWW, but you are recovered. So you go all the way back to the first 1 unit bet and continue to flat bet since you have recovered.

the instances explained above will basically keep you flat betting the entire time. Now I will go into instances where you are no longer flat betting.

-You lost the first 2, one unit bets. Then you lost the first bet of the staking plan. So it looks like this L L (LL)--Now if you are wondering why there is an LL in the staking plan instead of an L then that is because the staking plan always starts with an L. So if you have 3 losses then it will show as 4.
-So anyway, the staking plan looks like this (LL) Now you lose the next bet. You have this (LLL)
-You win the next bet You have this: (LLW) So you will bet 1 unit again.
-You win the next bet so you have this: (LWW) Now you will have 2 units to bet
-You win the next bet so you have this (WWW) Now in this instance I bet 2 units again. And if I win the next bet I bet 3 units.
-However if you were to lose that bet then you would have this (WWL) in this instance I drop down to 1 unit. whenever you have WWL Bet 1 unit.

So here are some keep points.

-progression 1-1- (3 level staking plan)
-If you win any of the first 3 bets then you restart at the 1unit bet, your goal is to win flat betting.
-Only enter the 3 level staking plan after losing the first 2 bets. If you are winning then you will always be at the 1 unit bet.
-After you lose the second 1 unit bet always start the staking plan off with an L. So it will look like this L-L (L)--you only lost two bets, but you start the staking plan off with an L.
-in this situation (WWW) only bet 2 units, then when you get (WWW) the second time in a row bet 3 units. You don't have to do this. I prefer to do this.
-In this situation (WWL) Bet 1 unit. Then if you win bet 2 units because you will have this (WLW).

-That is how I play the 3 level staking plan. I like this progression because it is safe. It makes it possible to achieve a win goal by flat betting. It also allows you to preserve your wins. For example. If you have this sequence (LLL) then you win, you will have (LLW). you are made 1 unit. Then if you win the next bet you have this: (LWW), You made 2 units. Then if you lose the next bet you have this (WWL) you lost 2 units, but they were two units that you made so it isn't dragging your bankroll down even more. If you play this the correct way then you may begin to understand why I play it like this.


the win goal is 6-8 units. I like to shoot for 6 units total after commission.

Testing:

If you plan to test then you MUST test on continuous shoes from the same table. Testing takes a lot of time.

Improvement:
it may make more sense to look at groupings of the results rather than each individual result. this is a direction that I may take this method in if it does not work.
-I also have another idea which I can't fully remember right now, but it is somewhere in my head so when it comes back to me I'll record it.

If there are any questions then I'll answer them.

[dennisbelle]

John, how often do you bet in each shoe on average?

[John1234]

I don't bet when I come across a tie in shoe A, I don't bet the first decision for tracking reasons, and I don't bet if the tracking score is even. All of this will be explained when I explain the system. They are the only 3 situations that stop me from betting. The situation of the tracking score being even depends on the shoe. Don't worry all this will be explained.

[Natural9]

I don't bet when I come across a tie in shoe A, I don't bet the first decision for tracking reasons, and I don't bet if the tracking score is even. All of this will be explained when I explain the system. They are the only 3 situations that stop me from betting. The situation of the tracking score being even depends on the shoe. Don't worry all this will be explained.

Bring it on John and  :biggrin:keep up the good work

[John1234]

Bring it on John and  :biggrin:keep up the good work

haha I'll try. Hopefully this one will work out

[fatherfred]

Hi John!
I've been following your treads for a while now.  All VERY intresting. .
You are completly right about the patterns that appears from the previous shuffle.  I've been looking at around 50 shoes since you wrote about it the first time.  Even the ties seems to sync from time to time.  The hard thing is to know when to switch to same or opposite.
I'm excited about your ideas.

Keep up the good work!

[John1234]

Hi John!
I've been following your treads for a while now.  All VERY intresting. .
You are completly right about the patterns that appears from the previous shuffle.  I've been looking at around 50 shoes since you wrote about it the first time.  Even the ties seems to sync from time to time.  The hard thing is to know when to switch to same or opposite.
I'm excited about your ideas.

Keep up the good work!

Yes the ties do seem insync from time to time. It amazes me. Almost every shoe that I have played I have been able to predict when a tie is going to come. A tie will usually arrive 3 decisions before or after the original tie from the previous shoe. Then there are also many instances where the tie lands on the exact same slot. This is the pattern that I have noticed but I never bet ties.

[dennisbelle]

John, If the count says to bet opposite but the last decision was the same, what do you bet?

[John1234]

John, If the count says to bet opposite but the last decision was the same, what do you bet?

You bet the opposite. You always bet the side that is higher.

So if the count is 2v0 and the last decision was of the same. Then the count is now 2v1. Since the opposite side has the higher count, you bet for the opposite.

I don't know if I even mentioned that so I will look back and add that in. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.

[Natural9]

John I am thinking that zumma shoes are all numerical in order played one after another I wonder if someone would be able to tell me or disagree with me

Regards Rodney

[John1234]

John I am thinking that zumma shoes are all numerical in order played one after another I wonder if someone would be able to tell me or disagree with me

Regards Rodney

do you mean 72 days at the baccarat table? I was thinking that maybe the shoes from that book are all from the same table too. I did some research to try to find out but I couldn't find anything. If they are then I will buy it for testing.

[John1234]

I just emailed zumma asking if the shoes are all played in order, one after another. Hopefully they will get back to me. I'll post what they say.
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this is what zumma said in the reply:

"The shoes were recorded in 5-8 hours blocks (approx. 1 shoe per hour). They were recorded at Harrah's by recording accuracy procedures in place.  We thank Harrah's for their cooperation in making this valuable book possible."

So it seems as though you are correct to say that the shoes are played in order, one after the other. Maybe I will order the book.

[Gary1712]

Hi John,

I look forward to giving your system some testing, I have a couple of questions you say you already won about 150 units on bet phoenix so if you are making around 6 to 8 units a shoe you have played around 25 shoes, have you got a stop loss you use with this system as you have not talked about that yet, if you did win all shoes played whats the biggest drawdown you had and did it happen often.

Did you get paid out ok at bet phoenix as I've heard lots of bad things about playing online, that they do not pay up if you win the one I know is ok is dublinbet but if you are learning a new system they deal very fast so you do not get time to get bets on, I see that bet phoenix deals slower giving more time do they deal 8 decks or 6 as dublin is only 6 decks so a shoe within 30 minutes.  I will do some testing in the next few days and let you know how it goes hoping it can hold up and thanks for all the great work you do here and for sharing.

   Regards  Gary

[John1234]

Hi John,

I look forward to giving your system some testing, I have a couple of questions you say you already won about 150 units on bet phoenix so if you are making around 6 to 8 units a shoe you have played around 25 shoes, have you got a stop loss you use with this system as you have not talked about that yet, if you did win all shoes played whats the biggest drawdown you had and did it happen often.

Did you get paid out ok at bet phoenix as I've heard lots of bad things about playing online, that they do not pay up if you win the one I know is ok is dublinbet but if you are learning a new system they deal very fast so you do not get time to get bets on, I see that bet phoenix deals slower giving more time do they deal 8 decks or 6 as dublin is only 6 decks so a shoe within 30 minutes.  I will do some testing in the next few days and let you know how it goes hoping it can hold up and thanks for all the great work you do here and for sharing.

   Regards  Gary

that is a good question. I did not make a stop loss. I guess that can be based on your own personal preference. I would probably make my stop loss for a shoe between 20-30 units.

the largest drawdown that I had was 6 units. this happened twice. However in both shoes I made a few mistakes so that may have contributed to the drawdown. the average drawdown from  my playing experience is around 2-3 units.

I was very worried about bet phoenix paying me out. I only put $200.00 on the site when I first started because I was not sure if they would pay me. But to my surprise the customer service has been great to me and the withdraw went great. If you live in USA then you have to contact them through live help or by phone to request a payment. They gave me two choices. I could either get a check or moneygram. I choose moneygram because I wanted my money instantly, I needed it for a new laptop screen because I head butted my old one and cracked it. I received the money gram by the next day and I took it two the bank and I had the money put in my bank account.
The only downside is that they take a % out for the processing fee. I do not remember what the % is but I am sure that they would tell you if you contact them. It wasn't that large. but I think it is worth it if you want your money by the next day, esp if you live in USA with all of the restrictions that we have to deal with. And I think that most online casinos take some sort of processing fee out. I could be wrong though.

I like baccarat at bet phoenix much more than dublin bet. I can't play for money at dublin bet but I played with play money. Sometimes I would have trouble getting my bets down fast enough. Bet phoenix gives you enough time plus they have that score card at the bottom of the screen. I also like how you can see the cards much better with bet phoenix.

I look forward to hearing some of your results. Hopefully it goes well for you. 

[Gary1712]

Hi John,

Thanks for the reply I live in the UK we dont get many live casinos here like in the USA so playing online is the best way for me, Im a member of beat the casino but the best system on there is sap and you just dont get time on dublin to play that.  I will give bet phoenix a try with your system, because its only flat betting most of the time im going to try a stop loss of around 8 units if lose go to next shoe im thinking maybe its best to lose now and then instead of go down 20 units and got to play 3 or 4 shoes to catch up I think getting the stop loss point right could be very important with your system to make it a long term winner.  But if your drawdowns are the norm its looking a very interesting system to test out.

[Gary1712]

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