The Characteristics of Randomness - A Test

[mistarlupo]

Define "educated guessing"

Educated guessing is about making an informed best guess based on experience and intuition.

[mistarlupo]

How often and to what extent you use your intuition to make educated guesses? Define "experience" please. In my opinion, in the game of roulette "experience" equals probability and statistics. That leaves me with just intuition to make my guesses 'educated'. Is intuition a skill and can it be developed? Researchers have shown that women have more accurate intuition than men do. I'm wondering why I haven't heard of a single woman who's gotten rich from gambling. Maybe the answer is behind that mystery of staying low profile that I'm not able to understand. Anyway, don't get me wrong, I don't want to engage in pointless arguments... I'm trying to get serious answers.

[Bayes]

In my opinion, in the game of roulette "experience" equals probability and statistics.

Absolutely. What else could it be?

Intuition is one of those fuzzy new age notions which means you just "know" things without any justification. It's the apparent ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason.

If you can pick winners at a better rate than chance suggests, and you can't justify or explain how you do it, then that's more precognition than intuition. But there's no evidence that precognition exists either.

[gizmotron]

Define "experience" please. In my opinion, in the game of roulette "experience" equals probability and statistics.
... I'm trying to get serious answers.

Experience for me has nothing to do with probability and statistics. It has everything to do with guessing effectiveness. It is acquired by doing it so much that it gives you knowledge about how it works. That knowledge has always been a prerequisite for membership in the club. It is no wonder you guys are completely blinded. You are trying to see an endless stream of probability stats as a relationship between you and success. I went through that stage for ten years.  When you get worn out on systems, progressions, money management techniques and probably ballistics advantages then perhaps you might begin to open your eyes.

[gizmotron]

Absolutely. What else could it be?

Intuition is one of those fuzzy new age notions which means you just "know" things without any justification. It's the apparent ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason.

If you can pick winners at a better rate than chance suggests, and you can't justify or explain how you do it, then that's more precognition than intuition. But there's no evidence that precognition exists either.

My intuition tells me you are searching in the dark for an explanation. By your own reasoning you admit that you have a misconception of what I mean by experience. You guys asked, I told you. Funny how that works.

P.S. "Definition of intuition (noun) form: intuitions an impression that something might be the case; suspicion."

[Noble Savage]

What time zone are you in? You spend almost the whole day in the forum.

What are you doing here? go make millions.

[gizmotron]

What time zone are you in? You spend almost the whole day in the forum.

What are you doing here? go make millions.

I'll tell you why. I only go twice per week. My goal is to take out 100 units per visit. This effort takes mental energy. It's easy to make concentration mistakes based on the effort it takes to win. I do very good by waiting at least two days between visits. Three days is even better. It actually helps me to get past sessions off my mind by reading posts here. Reading political forums doesn't do much at all. You can't persuade anyone with your informed opinion at forums like that. Forums are a massive waste of time if your goal is to change other's thinking. I was up late last night and early this morning. So were you I think. What's your excuse?

[Noble Savage]

I'm in a different time zone. It's 4 PM here.

Reading political forums doesn't do much at all. You can't persuade anyone with your informed opinion at forums like that. Forums are a massive waste of time if your goal is to change other's thinking.

Agreed.

[gizmotron]

I'm in a different time zone. It's 4 PM here.

Greenwich mean time, Great Britain?

It's GMT  - 8 here.

[Bayes]

My intuition tells me you are searching in the dark for an explanation. By your own reasoning you admit that you have a misconception of what I mean by experience.

Your intuition is wrong. That's the thing about intuition, it's not reliable. Someone could play every day for 30 years and still not have a clue. On the other hand, investing some effort in learning basic probability and some more in learning how to write computer programs will pay dividends.

Work smart, not hard.

[Noble Savage]

Greenwich mean time, Great Britain?

GMT +1

[gizmotron]

Your intuition is wrong. That's the thing about intuition, it's not reliable. Someone could play every day for 30 years and still not have a clue. On the other hand, investing some effort in learning basic probability and some more in learning how to write computer programs will pay dividends.

Work smart, not hard.

I write programs just fine. That only allows me to ponder probability and real world testing. Intuition is worthless without proper experience. You can play for 30 years and not get the proper experience.

[Bayes]

The problem with intuition is that you pay more attention to the hunches you get right than those you get wrong. Give me solid research and cold, hard numbers every time. It's so easy to be fooled by randomness.

[gizmotron]

The problem with intuition is that you pay more attention to the hunches you get right than those you get wrong. Give me solid research and cold, hard numbers every time. It's so easy to be fooled by randomness.

That's the first time you've been mostly correct. The point is to have a real grasp of real results. I've mentioned it in passing as "Effectiveness." Perhaps you've noticed some of that? Having a real experience with data is far better than having lame excuses for assumptions and wrong expectations.  It's easy to be fooled by assumptions and wrong expectations too. Personally, I would not count on those inadequate tools.

[mistarlupo]

My goal is to take out 100 units per visit. This effort takes mental energy. It's easy to make concentration mistakes based on the effort it takes to win.

That is because you are not allowed to use any sort of an electronic device to help you in the process of reading random, right? So your method does not work equally well for any kind of random generated set of values (PRNG's, TRNG's, online 'live' casinos etc). You must get much better results in B&M casinos for some reason... Why's that?

[mistarlupo]

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