A rare event...BUT...just how rare?

[darrencasino]

A 6 or 8 deck shoe runs...You always seem to get at least one (1) Tie...BUT!

How many times or how many shoes have you heard running 60 descions without a tie?

Just a question - am interested to know.

[Phishalot]

I have been play in Bac since 2001. In all that time I have only seen 1 shoe that had no ties in it. I remember it well. the whole table was doubling up on the tie after hand 60, it went 72 before it ended.

I play over 300 shoes a year.

[darrencasino]

Thanks buddy

[ADulay]

Yes, I know it's an old thread but I just went past my 500th live shoe recently and have NOT seen a shoe without a tie yet.

Can it happen?   Sure.   But I may not see one the way I'm running.

AD

[LuckoftheIrish]

Imspirit ran a long term test of 1 Million 8 deck RNG shoes.   There were 222 shoes where a tie did not occur.   

[guido1]

Imspirit ran a long term test of 1 Million 8 deck RNG shoes.    There were 222 shoes where a tie did not occur.    

222/1,000,000 is about 1 in 4,505 shoes

I ran an 8 deck, 13 shuffle card RNG sort shoes for 303/1,000,000 or 1 in 3,300 shoes
I also ran a 6 deck, 13 shuffle card RNG sort shoes for 2481/1,000,000 or 1 in 403 shoes
The less cards used in a shoe the higher the probability of not seeing a single tie game.
(I am working on a computer shuffle code for a Baccarat simulator, I know there are a few programs that use a casino-style computer shuffle, the trick is to follow casino procedures while still allowing some randomness in the code.  It will be interesting to see what differences there are in the results between the 2 methods)
Just because I have it, here are the distributions for the number of Ties per shoe.

Code Select Expand

   8 deck
group         middle    freq  freq/100
---------------------------------------------
0.00 <= x <  1.00     0.50     303     0.03%
1.00 <= x <  2.00     1.50    2457     0.25%
2.00 <= x <  3.00     2.50   10445     1.04%
3.00 <= x <  4.00     3.50   29465     2.95%
4.00 <= x <  5.00     4.50   60380     6.04%
5.00 <= x <  6.00     5.50   98062     9.81%
6.00 <= x <  7.00     6.50  131723    13.17%
7.00 <= x <  8.00     7.50  149229    14.92%
8.00 <= x <  9.00     8.50  146549    14.65%
9.00 <= x < 10.00     9.50  125743    12.57%
10.00 <= x < 11.00    10.50   95727     9.57%
11.00 <= x < 12.00    11.50   65247     6.52%
12.00 <= x < 13.00    12.50   40445     4.04%
13.00 <= x < 14.00    13.50   22803     2.28%
14.00 <= x < 15.00    14.50   11821     1.18%
15.00 <= x < 16.00    15.50    5662     0.57%
16.00 <= x < 17.00    16.50    2442     0.24%
17.00 <= x < 18.00    17.50     980     0.10%
18.00 <= x < 19.00    18.50     340     0.03%
19.00 <= x < 20.00    19.50     126     0.01%
20.00 <= x < 21.00    20.50      35     0.00%
21.00 <= x < 22.00    21.50       9     0.00%
22.00 <= x < 23.00    22.50       6     0.00%
23.00 <= x < 24.00    23.50       1     0.00%

grouped data
items:                  1,000,000   

minimum value:                0.00
first quartile:               6.00
median:                       8.00
third quartile:               9.00
maximum value:               23.00

mean value:                   7.76
midrange:                    11.50

range:                       23.00
interquartile range:          3.00
mean abs deviation:           2.12

sample variance (n):          7.03
sample variance (n-1):        7.03
sample std dev (n):           2.65
sample std dev (n-1):         2.65


6 Decks
group         middle    freq  freq/100
---------------------------------------------
0.00 <= x <  1.00     0.50    2481     0.25%
1.00 <= x <  2.00     1.50   15331     1.53%
2.00 <= x <  3.00     2.50   46979     4.70%
3.00 <= x <  4.00     3.50   96840     9.68%
4.00 <= x <  5.00     4.50  146469    14.65%
5.00 <= x <  6.00     5.50  173238    17.32%
6.00 <= x <  7.00     6.50  168527    16.85%
7.00 <= x <  8.00     7.50  136903    13.69%
8.00 <= x <  9.00     8.50   96280     9.63%
9.00 <= x < 10.00     9.50   58852     5.89%
10.00 <= x < 11.00    10.50   32063     3.21%
11.00 <= x < 12.00    11.50   15309     1.53%
12.00 <= x < 13.00    12.50    6640     0.66%
13.00 <= x < 14.00    13.50    2731     0.27%
14.00 <= x < 15.00    14.50     912     0.09%
15.00 <= x < 16.00    15.50     316     0.03%
16.00 <= x < 17.00    16.50      98     0.01%
17.00 <= x < 18.00    17.50      19     0.00%
18.00 <= x < 19.00    18.50      10     0.00%
19.00 <= x < 20.00    19.50       2     0.00%

grouped data
items:                  1,000,000   

minimum value:                0.00
first quartile:               4.00
median:                       6.00
third quartile:               7.00
maximum value:               19.00

mean value:                   5.75
midrange:                     9.50

range:                       19.00
interquartile range:          3.00
mean abs deviation:           1.83

sample variance (n):          5.21
sample variance (n-1):        5.21
sample std dev (n):           2.28
sample std dev (n-1):         2.28
  Enjoy!

[guido1]

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