Follow the leader

[Casanova]

Greetings to everyone

I have spent a very enjoyable last few days reading through the various topics and comments on this site, and I have tried some of the systems proposed, both for fun and in real money, with varying degrees of success.

I would know like to ask please for your assistance and advice on two different subjects.

First of all, have you ever thought up a system, tried it online in play mode, had nothing but success, and then tried it in real mode, with continued success, but not really understood WHY the system is working?

This has been my experience yesterday and today, and I would appreciate your opinions on this.

All I am doing is what I call "following the leader"  In other words, on the first number which comes up, I bet 1 unit on this and all the surrounding numbers (for example, if the wheel landed on 14 I place a unit bet on each of 10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18  If it lands on 2 I bet 1 unit on 0,1,2,3,4,5,6   If it lands on 12 I place the bets on 8,9,11,12,14,15 etc)  The only time I don't start betting is if the FIRST spin lands on a corner as I would only be covering 4 numbers)

I then spin again and cover the second number and its surrounding numbers, this time raising the bet to 2 units per number, including the first numbers bet.

I repeat this process up to 5 times (by the 4th and 5th time a small overall loss usually results), increasing the bets up to 5 units per number, starting again from 1 unit after a win.

I used this method yesterday evening online in play mode, and managed to increase my bankroll from £150.00 to £1,120.00 starting with bets from £1.00 increasing up to £5.00  Only once did this not produce a winner after 5 spins, and I recuperated some of the loss by repeating the £5.00 bets already in place for a couple of spins.

Even if I hadn't done this, the overall positive result would still have been more than I could have imagined.  But would this system work with real money?   This morning I went to an online casino which permits 10p bets, I thought this would be an excellent opportunity to try the system without too great a financial risk.  I duly deposited £150.00 and had a bonus added of £22.50 (they must be trying to encourage Monday gambling!) giving me a total of £172.50 

I then proceeded to follow the above system starting with £0.10 bets increasing as above to £0.50 per number

After playing for about half an hour, I have not gone beyond £0.40 per number, and my bankroll has increased to £193.78

Which leaves me with two thoughts:

Firstly, I wish I had dared to bet in £1.00 units, I would have incresed my bankroll by £210.00 instead of £21.00!!!

And secondly, can anyone please do some mathematics and explain to me how this is working?  The phrase "too good to be true" springs to mind, and I would be more than happy for someone to prove how this is the case!

I hardly dare keep going for the moment, and as I do not have sufficient trust yet in this or any other system I have used over a period of time, I must leave you now and put in an appearance at that place I lovingly refer to as "the office", to pursue a more accepted way of providing for myself.

I look forward to reading your comments.  I final point which I mentioned briefly at the outset - do any of your have experince playing Zero Roulette at Betfair?  They have a standard roulette table but with NO ZERO, in theory eliminating the house advantage.  They make up for this by stringent betting limits and the fact that you must always place a bet to spin the wheel (for example the minimum bet on dozens is £2, maximum £5).  It would be quite a challenge I think to come up with a system to beat this table.  Please let me know if you have had any experience of this.

For now I must leave you, may the day bring you success and happiness.


Capablanca

 

[TwoCatSam]

Hi Casa Capa

Welcome to our ever-expanding group of would-be pillagers.  Let me quote you:

"Firstly, I wish I had dared to bet in £1.00 units, I would have incresed my bankroll by £210.00 instead of £21.00!!!" 

When your horse wins, you always wish you had bet more; when he loses...........

This can be dangerous thinking.  Actually, you did exactly what you wanted to do.  Don't worry; be happy!

What you're doing is a type of "parachute".  Roughly, a parachute is where you bet a few numbers, then a few more at a higher chip level, and a few more and so on and so on.  Finally you are covering a lot of numbers for a lot of money and you should win.  Turn it around and you have a "reverse parachute".  Something like that....

I don't know your level of experience, but do you know the numbers 1,2,3 and so on are not grouped on the wheel?  They are spread out all over the place.  Sometimes what a person does, without knowing it, is to bet so long that the numbers he picked are coming up well within their expect level.  For example, say you bet six numbers ten times and win.  Well, six number should show once in six spins (minus 0) so nothing Earth shaking has happened.  Now, if we KNEW those six number would ALWAYS hit within ten spins and never go for eleven, the casinos would outlaw the Martingale.

So, not being the forum wet-blanket or anything, you must look at the number of pockets you bet and the number of times you bet them.  So, to answer the first question you asked, why did it work:  I think you hit a lucky streak, which is good! 

Finally, think on this:  Betting one number 35 times and 35 numbers one time gives the exact same probabilities.

TwoCatSam

[Compa]

I have played the Parachute for 2 days and gained a tremendeously lot of chips. And then it stopped and never came back. Flukes can be from 1 hour to 1 month:D

Test it for 1000 spins and you have yourself a tendency!

Cheers
/Compa

[Moccoman]

Hi TCS,

Unfortunately, the probabilities for betting on 35 numbers for one spin vs one number for 35 spins are not the same.

On a single zero wheel, they have a chance of winning at 94.6& and 61.7% respectively.

Regards
Mocco

[Casanova]

Greetings to you all, and thank you for your comments which are most welcome.

Yes hindsight is always a good thing.  This morning for example - I decided to continue betting 10p units as yesterday, and I have taken my balance from £193.00 to £209.00  However that did include on one occasion reaching the fourth bet in the series which reduced my balance from £203.00 to £184.00 and I decided to cut my losses and not place the fifth bet.  As it happens I would have won, but what if I had lost?  And what if I had decided to use £1.00 unit bets today?  I have decided to continue as I am, and if the bankroll increases sufficiently, gradually increase the unit bets.  Yes I am aware that the numbers are not grouped on the wheel as they are on the table, and if I were betting on a live wheel I might be more inclined to bet on neighbours rather than areas of the table, but I am not sure what effect that would have on a computer-simulated game.

As far as my experience is concerned, this is just 7 months "online" only, with mixed results.  After the first three months I had withdrawn a total of about £1,500 using a variety of adapted systems, but the tide soon turned. 

I will keep you updated on which direction my bankroll is taking.  I hope you all have a good day and look forward to reading your further comments


Casanova

[Tucktuckster]

casanova,

i play the 12's a lot. ie 1-12, 13-24, 25-36.

i use a standard spreadsheet that tracks when the 12's repeat and when they dont.

once the number of repeats is up at around 7 or more in 15, they are likely not to repeat.

when they are quite low - around 2 or 3, then they could repeat.

maybe you could do something similar. set up a spreadsheet and track the number of hits that your system gets in last 15 or 20 spins. Would be interested in hearing your findings. The norm that i find is that the count of hits goes up to a high level (around 7 or 8 in 15) and then works its way low (3 in 15). rarely do all 3 12's have 5 in 15 hits.

i tend to look for a 12 that is 3 in 15 or less and hasnt just fallen from a high - say 10 in 15 and i tend to play on that since it often hits more than expected.

however - there are no perfect systems and there are times when it will remain around 3 or 4 in 15 for a fair few spins before the bouce up.

howver - interested to hear you results if you do track this.

If you can ride out some of the lean times in virtual mode, it could save the bankroll. so if the hits are 8 in 15, then maybe virtual mode for first 3 trials could save some bankroll?

[TwoCatSam]

Mocco

Quoting me: "Betting one number 35 times and 35 numbers one time gives the exact same probabilities."

I would love to hear the reasoning behind your statements:  "Unfortunately, the probabilities for betting on 35 numbers for one spin vs one number for 35 spins are not the same.  On a single zero wheel, they have a chance of winning at 94.6& and 61.7% respectively."

You are saying that if I bet 35 numbers one time, I will have only a 61.78% chance of hitting?  Wait a minute!  My mind is boggled.  You are saying:

The chance of a 35-number bet hitting in one spin is 94.6%? (I get 94.5, but who's arguing?)
The chance of one number hitting in 35 attempts is 61.7%   (Here you lost me!)

I want to be perfectly clear on the above statement.

Why did you use the word "unfortunately"?  Unfortunate because of the quirky math, or because I supposedly made a mistake?

If I am wrong on this, I need to re-read a couple of books.

Sam

[mystidark]

Mocco

Quoting me: "Betting one number 35 times and 35 numbers one time gives the exact same probabilities."

I would love to hear the reasoning behind your statements:  "Unfortunately, the probabilities for betting on 35 numbers for one spin vs one number for 35 spins are not the same.  On a single zero wheel, they have a chance of winning at 94.6& and 61.7% respectively."

You are saying that if I bet 35 numbers one time, I will have only a 61.78% chance of hitting?  Wait a minute!  My mind is boggled.  You are saying:

The chance of one number hitting in 35 attempts is 94.6%? (I get 94.5, but who's arguing?)
The chance of a 35-number bet hitting in one spin is 61.7%? (Here you lost me!)

I want to be perfectly clear on the above statement.

Why did you use the word "unfortunately"?  Unfortunate because of the quirky math, or because I supposedly made a mistake?

If I am wrong on this, I need to re-read a couple of books.

Sam

Hi TCS,

You might want to re-read Mocco's post again carefully, I think you've got it reversed. He says that...

The chance of one number hitting in 35 attempts is 61.7% and
The chance of a 35-number bet hitting in one spin is 94.6%

Does that make more sense? Now don't ask me about the math because I only know my 2+2's (and happy with it  ) but just correcting your statement as Mocco clearly says the opposite of what you understood, as I've corrected above. Let the discussion continue...

MD 

[TwoCatSam]

Dang!  I read that four times before I posted it!

Thanks, MD.

EDIT:  OK, I changed it around. 

Mocco, would you show me the math?

Sam

[Moccoman]

Hi Sam,

Before getting to the math, just think about something simpler - Bet 37 numbers for 1 spin = 100% (absolute certainty), but to bet 1 number for 37 spins is no certainty at all.

If I can explain the maths right for a single zero wheel -

For 1 number for 1 spin is 1/37 (0.02702)
For 1 number for 2 spins is 0.02702 + [(1-0.2702) X 1/37] = 0.0503
For 1 number for 3 spins is 0.0503 + [(1-0.0503) x 1/37] = 0.079 and so on

For the probabilities to be the same for 35 numbers for 1 spin, it would take 1 number to be spun 107 times.

Hope that helps
Mocco

[TwoCatSam]

Mocco

Thank you for your help.  I am sure I will have many hours of sheer pleasure figuring this out.  One question about this sentence:

"For 1 number for 2 spins is 0.02702 + [(1-0.2702) X 1/37] = 0.0503"

Is the number within the () correct?  Or should it be 0.02702?

Sam

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Hello all,


A good place to go to, to find the answers for questions like the above is
nolinks://nolinks40.brinkster.com/grabb/

There you can use the "Hit or Sleep" calculator to find out that:
...to hit AT LEAST(!) once, betting one number for 35 spins is a 61.671026846499785% chance
...to hit at one spin, betting 35 numbers is a 94.5945945945946% chance
(for a 0-wheel; 60.67810304603071% and 92.10526315789474% resp for 00-wheel)
...and a lot more. The math is also shown.

There are more great tools, that you can download for free.


Regards,
KFS

[Moccoman]

Hi Sam,

Told you it would be confusing!!

You are right it is missing a zero and should be 0.02702.

Regards
Mocco

[TwoCatSam]

Thanks to Mocco and the confused one.

[TwoCatSam]

                                                       I SUPPOSE IT'S TIME TO EAT A LITTLE CROW!

I mis-spoke to Casanova in my post above.  It would be easy to blame some book somewhere for what I said, but the truth is I should have checked it out.  What I learned from Mocco has changed my way of looking at things to a certain extent.  The calculator page from Konfused is valuable.

This experience begs the question:  How many other things about roulette have I accepted as fact when, in fact, they may be just someone's thought on the subject? 

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

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