I think we are all wasting our time...

[gizmotron]

You can't prove it does.

Deal with this statistical expression.

"The globalizing effect for my currently occurring specific trend has performed at 90% since it was recognized 20 spins ago." Now that's an example of a statistic that is useful to me. It's a constantly changing statistic that changes after each spin. I could dig up a specific set of spins to show that it really happens but that would be digressing into the minuteness of the bigger point being made.  Nobody needs to see how the sausage is being made in order to discuss the principals of current state statistics. Try to deal with the idea of statistics like that. They are never fixed. They keep on being perfectly accurate while long term statistics remain to be assumed constant.

[Bayes]

Let me ask you a question. If you're trying to guess how many marbles are in a jar and the guy who filled the jar tells you how many bags he put in, does that change the math and probability of you winning?

There are always a fixed number of marbles in the jar, and you know how many there are.

And, you are oblivious to evidence to the contrary.

Where is the evidence? please! show me some evidence!  

[gizmotron]

Where is the evidence? please! show me some evidence!  

Markov chain. You just chose to ignore it.

[Noble Savage]

haha aren't they cute.

[Nathan Detroit]

What`s the last number before INFINITY ?

Very  pertinent question since    many posts deal here with  infinite progressions.


N.D.

[Herb6]

Markov chain. You just chose to ignore it.

Absurd.  That's like tracking French fries from Mr. Potato Head.


Give us an example using your new version of math and how it applies to roulette if you can.

[Bayes]

Gizmo,

Markov chains are useless for roulette, because the next state doesn't depend on the current state. The wheel has no memory. 

[gizmotron]

Absurd.  That's like tracking French fries from Mr. Potato Head.


Give us an example using your new version of math and how it applies to roulette if you can.

No, you need to remain the honorable skeptic from the septic. Please stay stupid.

[Herb6]

1. The number of pockets on the wheel remains the same at each spin.
2. The ball has no memory
3. The pockets don't know when they are "due" to hit.

Therefore on a random wheel, the chance of hitting is the same at each spin.

[gizmotron]

Gizmo,

Markov chains are useless for roulette, because the next state doesn't depend on the current state. The wheel has no memory.  

Bayes is gayes, "because the next state doesn't depend on the current state. " But it can effectively and statistically. Minor problem for your fantasy.

[gizmotron]

Yes Gizmo
tell us now that u are in the living fantasy sleep phase!

tell us quick! we don t want you to wake up!!!

Ps.Byes u are wrong!

In Gizmo s fantasy world the roulette has memory!!!
And he knows exact what Roulete can remember and what not!!!!

Jordan27, you are just a suck up boy. Go play with yourself somewhere else.

[gizmotron]

1. The number of pockets on the wheel remains the same at each spin.
2. The ball has no memory
3. The pockets don't know when they are "due" to hit.

Therefore on a random wheel, the chance of hitting is the same at each spin.

And each spin has the capability of belonging to short term and long term statistics.  Herb has one spin disease.

[Bayes]

A Markov process is useful for analyzing dependent random events - that is, events whose likelihood depends on what happened last. It would NOT be a good way to model a coin flip, for example, since every time you toss the coin, it has no memory of what happened before. The sequence of heads and tails are not inter-related. They are independent events.

nolinks://nolinks.doctornerve.org/nerve/pages/interact/markhelp.htm

But of course this doesn't apply to you, because you're on the cutting edge! Stone-age math is for math nazis! 

[gizmotron]

Shame on U Herb6 

How do u treat our roulette GOD like this!!!!! 

please forgive him GIZ!
He is just jelous of your magic Roulette powers!

Ban Jordan27, he's been begging for it since last night.

[Spike!]

There are always a fixed number of marbles in the jar>>

Suppose they have the contest every day and change the amount and the guy who does it tells you how many there are. Does having that knowledge change the probability of you winning?

Its easy to change the probability of winning a game of chance to your favor. Use marked cards, count cards, practice dice setting, use a roulette computer, learn to read random. All these things change the probability in your favor. The regular math goes out the window when you skew the odds.

[Spike!]

-