[System] Expected Value Play

[Advantage.Player]

Hi I'm going to try and explain a strategy that I've mentioned a few times. Its effective as i found out yesterday on my roulette wheel and i was playing as if i were at my local casino with a pathetic minimum bet on outside as $5 and max on outside as $500 (unless you
go to the upper class table which u have to book).

Any way, playing with such crap table limits it managed to give me around $500 per hour playing the 5 dollar chip version and $1000 per hour playing the ten dollar chip version. These times are guesstimated if the average spin takes 23 seconds (in other words a relatively empty table).

The system is relatively simple and uses some maths and most likely the only maths that relates to roulette seeing as the ball has no memory.

We play on the dozens (because i like them but you can adapt this to many other bets). We also know one fact and that is any random probability distribution follows the spread of a bell graph nolinks://racerocks.com/racerock/education/curricula/projects/normalcurve.jpg

So this basically says that if x doesn't come up as its should be expected...it should come up more than expected in the near future to "average" out the graph and give us that bell shape – with the top being the expected amount of hits.

So knowing this I chart the next 10 spins for the columns (not the dozens – although I say dozens I mean columns because I see the columns as more random than the dozens).

So to chart them I write on a piece of paper like this...

Col. 1     Col. 2     Col. 3
 X             X             X
 X             X             X
 X             X            
 X
 X

So here I can see that columns 2 and 3 came up less to in order to follow the bell curve they need to come up more very soon.

So now we bet for 10 spins on those 2 columns (the ones that came up less).

The Progression used for the $5 chip version goes:

5, 20, 75, 250 (these are dollars betted on ONE dozen) the maximum bankroll here is $700. This variation allows around $500 and hour to be made.

The other version goes like:

10, 40, 150, 500 (these are again, dollars betted on each dozen) and in this case a bankroll of $1400 is needed. However here you can make around $1000 and hour playing this way.

So now while playing for those 10 spins I will also chart them. Ill add them to my old chart here with a line to separate them.

Col. 1     Col. 2     Col. 3
 X             X             X
 X             X             X
 X             X           -----      
 X           -----           X
 X             X             X    
-----           X             X
 X             X             X
-----         -----           X
                                X
                              -----
Okay here we can see that we have made our profit. Now we simply apply the same technique for the next 10 spins session. We simply look at the last 10 results and see which have come up the least. In this case columns 1 and 2. So now we bet on them in our progression for the next 10 spins and we make sure we chart those 10 spins as well.

When I tested this system it worked great and made a decent amount of money so I hope it works for you as good as it worked for me.

     -Mark (Advantage Player)

NOTE: If playing and you encounter a zero forget it if you are charting but if you have a bet down do not bet on the next spin and wait and pretend you are betting on those 2 columns.

And if the next spun up number hits your columns continue betting but if it doesn't, Stay in virtual play until it does. Most times i find if a zero comes up it will hit in the column im not betting in for a number of times (once it streaked there for 5 spins),

[Advantage.Player]

Secondly you can either expand the progressions to suit your casinos limits. Say if you had a 1000 dollar limit it would be wise to expand the 5 dollar chip version so that you can get 1 more spin.

For example, for a $5 chip bet like this....

1 chip, 4 chips, 15 chips, 50 chips then 170 chips - although putting 170 chips on a column is stupid, work around it this way.

Transform the sequence to dollars...

5, 20, 75, 250, 850 and bet using larger Chips.

Did i mention this system makes $500 and hour in its simplest form ($5 bets)   8-)

[witho]

I tried this out and it worked for the short term. I can well believe it is possible to make 500 per hr. I only got to second step of progression before a win.

I have had some bad luck with these progressions in the past though, and its not unusual to see a single dozen come up 5 or 6 times in a row.

It is nice and simple though and should work well most of the time

[Advantage.Player]

I've been continuously testing this system and this morning it failed  

I'm not surprised thou - it just goes to support my idea that roulette cant be bet with a system/progression. this is because there is always a chance of losing.

But if i added all up the winnings i made with this system while testing it would be in excess of the cost of losing on the final stage of that progression - so its still making me money

[cps10]

Perhaps you could use wheel dozens to practice this system? Only a certain amount of time can an entire sector on the wheel be avoided in my experience. Especially when using the right handed dealer.

You could break sectors up into 3 13-number sections with the Double Zero wheel. Obviously, there would be a repeat number, but this way, you are incorporating any zero that may hit from time to time. With straight dozens/columns, you cannot account for the zero, which could be a progression-breaker.

[xman1970]

That will make it very similar to Chippo's system on VLS's old forum  

Any chance of transfer the important posts from there Victor  :-/

Just a thought.....


Take it easy..... [smiley=wink.gif]

[Advantage.Player]

Yes sectors of the wheel would be better and suit the system more - betting just might take a little longer thats all.

Actually I've tried a progression on the Voisin Du Zero (cover bit less than half wheel ALL in one sector by placing minimum amount of chips) and it was very successfully However as with all progressions its destined to fail - because we didn't over come the house edge in that system.

[hermes]

Yes sectors of the wheel would be better and suit the system more - betting just might take a little longer thats all.

Actually I've tried a progression on the Voisin Du Zero (cover bit less than half wheel ALL in one sector by placing minimum amount of chips) and it was very successfully However as with all progressions its destined to fail - because we didn't over come the house edge in that system.

Guys, what about try the progression from Goldmine Roulette but rise the bets after wins (Richard Graham)? or flat bets? Gauss from physics is Ok but it doesn't work always.
The high roller progression in this tread is to risky.

[Wildcard]

Advantage.Player said :

Yes sectors of the wheel would be better and suit the system more - betting just might take a little longer thats all.

I do not believe there´s a difference between dozens on the table layout and dozens on the wheel... nor betting one of them taking longer than the other.

They show up as well or as badly as any other dozen of your design. Try to perform some tests using both types of dozens and compare the results for yourself.

I also think this system requires a heavy progression, so would you play this for real ? (I´m poor, so don´t mind me at all)  

Thank you for sharing and best of luck to you.

[Advantage.Player]

Ive modified it a bit so i watch the spins and when theres a dozen sector of the wheel that comes up a few standard deviations less then expected i play on that for twice the time i was watching (if theres no profit made at the same time is was watch i go to twice the time)

Now using this on Dublin bet i went from 200 to 14,000 in a few (3) days (I'm on school holidays) - but to get this sum i did play other things like baccarat and blackjack; however 80% of that 14,000 was made at roulette and 90% of that 80% (hence 72% of my total) was made using this system. So 14,000 * 0.72 = ~10,000 (However i was using fun chips    but the casino results were real and this gives me more confidence).

All in all this is the ONLY system i have that hasn't failed even @ 10K profit (ZERO failures yet - every game i've walked away with a profit; at worst it was around $100 while on average it was $1000 all the way up to $2000 once; and all the time i was flat betting) - i've been testing another system too that has failed once at 14K (cumulative - over the course of 7 - 10 games/tests) and the cost of my failure was 1.3K so I'm still making a CLEAR profit.

But for the time being i've started to play Blackjack seeing as its the only game where you don't get screw over by the law of independent trials - but roulette has always appealed to me; who knows why, lots of bet selections? shiny spinning wheel   ? i dunno but i always will play it (with the money made from blackjack of course )

[Wildcard]

  You are right ... That roulette wheel has a mystical appeal to it .

Whenever i think of roulette, i stand up and say out loud " YES, MASTER " .

When i come to my senses again, i have no memory of what just happened !  

It freaks me out !  LMAO

[theneophyte]

Hi,

Just curious about the number of spins required to produce the bell curve. Is there anything that proves this can happen in a short time. I would have thought that it could happen slowly over a very large number of spins.

Any thoughts?  

[Advantage.Player]

Due to roulette trends and the fluctuation of the outcomes it can take from 20 (still a rough shaped bell curve) or anything up to +100 (normally in the case a sector of the wheel repeating consistently).

However, i suggest not playing this system as it is not infallible (which system is infallible?) and i suggest playing Victors Lw methods which after all my testing to date (30 - 45ish sessions) had yielded ~$22,000 in profit while i was playing with $100 chips (and a $10 "insurance" bet on zero).

You can read up on the method here nolinks://vlsroulette.com/forum/YaBB.pl?board=strategy

[hermes]

You can do the same but in "negative" on ECs. Put down the last 10 numbers and pick up one from R/B, E/O, L/H that which is ahead at least 2 numbers. Bet the next 10 spins on the winners with Oscar Grind progression or win -1, loss +1 unit. You can bet it flat, too. If you lose the first 10 spins next 10 spins bet with 2 units, and if you lose the 20 spins what is very unusual you bet the last 10 spins with 4 units and pray Father Unser. If you see come 7 or more of one kind in 10 spins then bet the opposite next 10 spins because the trend could balance. Happens often. It's called WABO roulette system in the 302 systems on Web.
Happy Fishing
Hermes

[hermes]

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