An Independent Analysis of John Solitude's Roulette System

[frank]

The "Wheel Frequency Analysis" by John Solitude is a well written and impressive E-book.    Even though it was published in 2005 I have found it just recently few months ago.    The arguments and logic presented in the book look very convincing at first sight and I was eager to find any independent evaluation of the system to confirm the validity of claims.    Sure there are many gamblers who use this system and claim to have made great profits, but we all know that winning few sessions can not be considered a true long term performance.   

Being a computer programmer and motivated to find out the truth, I have taken the challenge to prove or disprove the LONG TERM profitability of the system by testing it from several different points of view using different methodologies.    In the first step I have scrutinized the validity of the probability calculations and their interpretation which represents the basic idea of the system.    The system using sector size of 6 adjoining numbers is tested, but the conclusions are valid for all the other sector sizes as well because we are testing the validity of the system's core idea, namely the correctness of the Probability calculations and their interpretation.   

As the next step, tested the performance of the system core on about 2 million roulette spins (from a real casino).    The "core" means the betting method presented in John's book except for the "hit and run" trick which wants us to stop playing if we have gained about 20% of our session bankroll or if we completely lost it.    With other words in this core test my custom designed software simulates John's system by playing it continuously using all collected roulette spins skipping none.   

In the third step I have written another group of custom programs that simulate the full system, including the "hit and run" strategy.    This software is universal, which means we can choose any profit or loss level at which the play should stop, and any time gap after which the game should be resumed.    This variability offers a huge number of possible parameter combination each comprising a unique system variant in itself with unique profitability.    We have found quite a few parameter combination amongst the 1000 system variants tested, which produced net profits even after placing several 10000 bets.    But before getting too enthusiastic we need to be watching out for over-optimization which is a kind of back engineering symptom.   

To eliminate this problem a fourth software module has been created that would let us test these promising parameter combination using an even larger number of spins that would be impossible to collect from real casinos.    This program performs the same simulation like the previous ones except that it uses computer generated random roulette numbers.    This way we can test any system variant fairly fast using any desired number of bets.    I have retested all the 51 promising system variants from the previous test-run by getting this simulator to place 100000 bets for each (using many millions of spins).   

Finally summarized the results and presented the final conclusions in an E-book.    I would be glad to share the whole test and simulation package with all for free, but I had to invest too much time and work and can't afford it.    Therefore decided to ask a small price of $20, a kind of donation and contribution to this work if you want to read it.    The E-book and the custom software that was created specifically for simulating and testing this system can be downloaded from:

nolinks. store. payloadz.  com/go/?id=843005

Please note that the software is not like the Roulette Extreme that would need you to either manually place many times 100000 bets, or to create a custom program script for testing the system variants.    My software does all the simulation and testing automatically, playing John's roulette system for you using your selected variant.    There are built-in step-by-step manual testing options as well to allow you to see how the program simulates the system, and verify its accuracy.    This way you don't need to place blind faith into the accuracy of the results just because they are produced by a software.    You can check it out for yourself and gain confidence.    After the test simulations you can make your own judgment and conclusions about the long-term profitability of any system variant without the need to rely on other gamblers and limited or biased opinions.   

[Jakkalsdraai]

Frank......let me be frank. 

It looks like you have invested a great deal of time in to John Solitudes methods. And that is great.

Do you realize the amount of time and effort that most members here have put into roulette? Good luck to you for selling your results. All I have to say is that there are a helluva lot of members here that could code John's work (if it's not coded already) and then just test it on RX and get their own conclusions. So as far as selling your testing...don't see the point. We already know that it isn't the HG.

Cheers
Jakk

[frank]

Jakk,

Thanks for your revelation and concern.   Even the originator of the system, John Solitude has declared this much 5 years ago already in his E-book when he described the method.   He also claimed that the system is not a Holy Grail.   But knowing that it is not a HG does not mean you are absolutely certain whether you will make money using the system on long run or you will lose your shirt.   John claimed that the many small wins will more than compensate the few losses.  .  .   Did anybody prove it otherwise that I missed and supposed to know about?

This certain knowing or knowledge of the long term performance based on elaborate and accurate tests is the value that most players wish to know right away when they learn the system.   This is what I could not find anywhere on the internet, and that was the reason to invest effort, expertise, time, and money into this evaluation.   If you know things better then congratulations! You don't need this study. 

[Ka2]

Based on you're asking money for it. The conclusion is simple, your data shows that the system fails. Otherwise you would have used it yourself...

[frank]

Ka2,

It is not a secret that the system fails.  This much information is freely given, and intelligent people like you can read it from my first post.  It is written there between the lines and it doesn't depend on any price tag.  The value of the study is not only to show the true performance, but much more to offer you a first hand certain knowledge that does not depend on any guesses, assumptions, and other people's claims pro or contra.  The other value is that it reveals exactly why does the system fail and where did John commit the mistakes.  It shows what is the exact basic fallacy of the system.  If you know this then it will let you recognize similar mistakes in other systems as well.  For example Andruchi's Advanced Roulette System contains a very similar basic fallacy.

[frank]

By the way Jakk,

or any experienced expert in roulette systems.  If you know any roulette system that is really profitable on the long run and you believe in it, then please let me know which one is that.  It might merit a similar independent test which could hopefully confirm it this time instead of disproving.  Thanks.

[WannaWin]

Mr Frank, you got the roulette system selling wrong.

You sell the PDF with the system and then people see that the system is losing by its results. You do not sell losers results directly.

[WannaWin]

You also sell the test for andruchi system:

nolinks. store. payloadz. com/go/?id=27242

The system loses and this is clearly the only possible way in which to seek to make money with the system.

[Steve]

The andruchi system is nothing more than casino promotion. It's a scam.

[Jakkalsdraai]

By the way Jakk,

or any experienced expert in roulette systems.  If you know any roulette system that is really profitable on the long run and you believe in it, then please let me know which one is that.  It might merit a similar independent test which could hopefully confirm it this time instead of disproving.  Thanks.

Hi Frank,

I guess if any had such a system you would code it and charge for your time right? That is just the thing. There are alot of guys on this forum who will gladly code for free because they know that they will get the system in return. Win-win situation. Why would I want to pay somebody to give him my system. (Not that I have a mechanical system anyway, just saying.)

This use to be a community where ideas were shared and testing use to be done as teams. Now everything seems to be for sale. Not that I'm interested in systems anymore. Just don't know why anyone would wanty to pay for testing. We know systems fail. To say that Raindrop wins more than looses in the longterm, you are saying that it has an edge over the house. I disagree.

What would be interesting is to see what results you get with Twisteruk's 'closest to HG in 25 years' system. It uses progression (quite aggressive as well). So far he is ahead I'm told and playing 4 tables at once. Why don't you test that one and post the results.

Cheers
Jakk

[frank]

Hi Jakk,

My conviction is that if somebody has invented any system or method that can consistently beat the roulette, he will not be stupid to share, or even sell it.  If he would do that, then sooner or later it would land in the hands of casino personnel and they would take care that it should not remain profitable.  If such a method exists then that must also be based on wheel bias or something similar that is a tangible physical phenomena or anomaly.  So when I was asking for suggestions, I meant roulette systems which are already known, widely used, many people confirm its profitability, and you also believe it is genuine to merit investing effort into its testing.  With other words I have nothing to gain by getting somebody's "holy grail" for free because such thing will not be offered for sure.

The reason I have written the independent analysis of two roulette systems is because they became popular and therefore dangerous, causing lot of financial loss to poor ignorant suckers.  Many people started using them, creating a big false hype and halo of glory around them and there was nothing to disprove them in a way which could convince the average player that they are scams.  You say "We know systems fail".  Good for you, but unfortunately this "We" does not include the majority of players who don't believe in this statement, because they don't understand mathematics, statistics, and science in general.  They can not believe in something they don't understand, and since they can not know, their only choice is gambling religion.  I say religion because they can either chose to believe in a roulette system or not, which is a form of religion based on subjective faith, belief - or better to say wishful thinking.

Systems can be correctly disproved by statistical and probability calculations, but since these people don't understand such gibberish (for them), the only way to convince them about scams is to let them play and use the system with real b&m roulette numbers, but in a simulated environment where they don't risk losing the farm.  This is why the software is needed to let the player go step by step one bet at a time until he gets convinced that the simulation is accurate and the results are correct.  Then the program should have automatic simulator as well which will not need the intervention of the player but will play the system automatically and show the true long-term performance of the system.  Hopefully this will dispel the mist of false hopes and with a bit of explanations the reality will down in the mind of the player.  He has gained first hand knowledge (not mere belief, or faith in someone's claims) and for the price of a dinner or few rounds of drink he could spare hundreds of dollars or even thousands that he would lose by using the system in casinos.  This is the real value of my system-studies which was proven during the last few years by the feedback of my customers (Andruchi system test).

If the casinos would let the people play but would not offer the possibility to win real money, then most gamblers would lose interest.  If there is no incentive, no reward, then why would one sit at the table and watch boring numbers for hours? In the same way why would I be motivated to share the results of my work and not receiving anything in return? You seem to endorse a communistic ideal when few people do the work and then are forced by an awkward ideology to share the results of their work for free with those who were sitting idle, waiting for free gifts.  This ideology destroys any incentive to work and create, and thus financially destroys the group of people who cherish it.  This is why Russia and China started to depart from this principle and the reason why they were so much behind the west. 

To prepare such a software and information package is not a minor task and takes weeks and even months of hard work.  Since we did not share the work I don't see any reason why would I have to share the results for free.  Those who are willing to share the work also, can do so by giving their share in the form of a modest price of the package.  Those who can not afford $20 should not go even close to a casino or roulette wheel.  Those who are convinced that the system fails, need not buy it either, but should not demand freebies or debunk the value of the product because they don't need it.  It was meant for those who wish to know the truth from first hand experience and not too stingy to give something in return.

You mentioned second time that "there are alot of guys on this forum who will gladly code for free".  Well that is fine, if they do it as a hobby for few praises in return then go for it.  There is a difference between being able to write a software and really doing it.  Being able is just a potential, no effort required, but actually doing it takes expertise, time, and effort, which is basically money.  To prepare such a test is not as simple and easy as just chatting on a forum and having fun socializing, while calling it "team work".  According to your idea we could play a game where you go working, and then bring your salary here and share it with all of us on this forum.   

Please remember I have never said that the system "wins more than loses in the longterm".  John Solitude has written this in his E-book.  I have proven this to be wrong in a way that can convince even the mathematically challenged players.

I have taken a look into the Twisteruk's system and it seems to be a trivial scam spread by the casinos.  Adolar and sanremo, have already shown their negative test results between posts 106-112 on the page
hxxp: nolinks. rouletteforum. net/cgi-bin/forum/Blah. pl?m-1280487925/s-105/
MMPHD has also given some good comments.  Of course the system has not been convincingly disproved by these rudimentary tests and comments, but the system is not serious and convincing enough to suck in too many players and cause serious damage.  If its popularity would soar to sufficient level I will take a second look at it.  And by the way I think you yourself don't believe in its validity either.  Then why are you suggesting me something that would be just waste of time bothering with? But anyway, thanks for the input.

[frank]

-