My new creation

[Advantage.Player]

Hmmm, I don't think I matters. Because every spin is a past event once it occurs and the probability shown (0.165%) is the chance of the 4 numbers not hitting for 56 spins - whether they "not hit" while we have bets down or while we are watching doesn't matter.

From a mathematical point of view it does matter - however from a reality point of view I don't know LOL

Well please, show me the maths that does prove this and I will change my opinion.

And cps10 that is what I'm hoping for - I gave this another go on Dublin Bet and had very good results.

[crazysg]

Hi AP

Unfortunately this system is just another gamblers fallacy. It looks very interesting at first glance but when you think about it you will see why it's incorrect.

Roulette, as you know, is a game of independent trials, therefore no matter how long you wait for an event to happen, the odds for a progressive bet only take effect from when you actually place your first bet.

The reason in your example is thus...

You are effectively waiting x number of spins to select your 4 numbers to bet. Say, for example, after waiting 33 spins there were the numbers 1.2.3.4 remaining that hadn't yet hit.

The next time you are waiting for your 4 numbers, it's likely to be a different set of 4 numbers, say 5.6.7.8

The statistics don't now stop for the numbers 1.2.3.4, so they are hitting within 33 spins 97.71% of the time. The time that you are selecting them to bet is one of those 2.29% of the times.

I'll explain further if you need me to but clearly you understand the math behind your calculations so you should also understand what I'm saying.

Sorry to put a dampener on your system

[Advantage.Player]

Im lost here now  so Im going the disect your post at the parts I dont get and I hope you can please explain them to me.

Hi AP

Unfortunately this system is just another gamblers fallacy. It looks very interesting at first glance but when you think about it you will see why it's incorrect.

Roulette, as you know, is a game of independent trials, therefore no matter how long you wait for an event to happen, the odds for a progressive bet only take effect from when you actually place your first bet. Why? the outcomes of roulette dont suddenly change the probability due to a bet being placed? My maths was about the chance of a number being hit; a number being hit/not hit isnt affected by a bet?! Is it?

The reason in your example is thus...

You are effectively waiting x number of spins to select your 4 numbers to bet. Say, for example, after waiting 33 spins there were the numbers 1.2.3.4 remaining that hadn't yet hit.

The next time you are waiting for your 4 numbers, it's likely to be a different set of 4 numbers, say 5.6.7.8 Well that is expected.

The statistics don't now stop for the numbers 1.2.3.4, so they are hitting within 33 spins 97.71% of the time. The time that you are selecting them to bet is one of those 2.29% of the times. Yes, a rare event which most likley will end soon hence betting on it...but how does the above sentence "disprove" the maths that I worked out in the original post?

I'll explain further if you need me to but clearly you understand the math behind your calculations so you should also understand what I'm saying. Please do!

Sorry to put a dampener on your system

Im not sure whats going on (most likley Ive over seen a key prinicipal or something) but Im just not getting why what I worked out in the first post is "wrong"! Please help me someone

[crazysg]

Hi AP

I know it can be difficult to grasp, it took me a good while to understand the concept too. It seems so plausible on paper.

The key thing to remember is roulette is a game of independent trials, therefore previous spins have no bearing on future spins.

For example, try to explain or ask yourself how it is any different betting any 4 numbers for a 23 step progression from the first number drawn, in comparison to waiting until there are 4 unhit numbers and then beginning your progression.

It is akin to waiting for any event to happen and then starting your bets based on that event, for example waiting for 5 reds in a row and then betting black. The probability of black hitting when you place your bet is still 48.7% The 5 reds drawn before are irrelevant.

[TwoCatSam]

Advantage Player

I have read and re-read this post.  From a purely mathematical direction, the four hold-outs have no better chance of winning that any other four. 

Then there is "statistical pressure".  The lost boys have a "desire" to hit at their normal rate.  All numbers, dozens, columns--whatever--have a "desire" to hit at their normal rate.  If numbers did not have some "desire" to hit at an expected rate, how could you ever get a bell curve?  How could you get a standard deviation?  By the same token, if they hit too often the become "sheepish" for hogging the show and recede into the background for a while.

Why not try to get bj to re-vamp his "Last Six" program to become the "Last Four" program?  It probably wouldn't take long for him to do that.  I would be happy to run some numbers through it and see what happens.  Yes, I could do it manually, but it takes forever that way.

I would try this live at Rapid Roulette.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

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