Beating a math game with math

[gizmotron]

I did it as a stunt. I wanted to prove that you could avoid hitting the zeros on a 0/00 wheel if you used a fixed rule to avoid them. I ran billions of spins in order to prove that the simulation was not in doubt.

These were the fixed rules of the Sim:

Whenever the zeros had hit in the last thirty spins wait until there are no zeros present in the last 30 spins and then begin betting again.

Bet on the low 18 only, EC bet to win.

Play 300 spin sessions that have stops at 10+ and 10- points that end a session.

The simulation lowered the house's edge from .0526 to .0500, on average, a little more than one quarter of one percent in the very long run.


In the short run, you can observe the zeros hitting very active, average, or below average.

I was always told that there was no way to change the house's advantage.

Whenever you play roulette on a 0/00 wheel you have two slots on the wheel against you. There are almost always two numbers in Roulette that are always in a state of resting or sleeping. It just moves around and changes numbers about every 40 to 80 spins.

IMO after observing changes.

[Herb]

Gizmo,

You're not changing the house edge


Here's a thread I think you should studynolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/roulette-probability-made-easier-t2193/

[gizmotron]

Herb, this is the nice forum. I proved that I lowered the house's advantage on an other mean forum.

I don't want to be mean here, just ask Victor. I wrote this simulation to win the argument that there is a way to lower the house's advantage and to attempt to open the minds of those that say it can't be done.

Do you need the proof too? I have all day, week, month, year.

Here, the proof:

Sim includes the 10 plus, 10 minus stop session points,  After more than 281 million actual spins, the Sim bet more than 48.7 million times, lost more than 2.4 million times for a new House Advantage of 0.049767. That's just a little lower yet for a test.

So this shows that just the zeros being avoided and the stop loss, stop win can lower that house advantage just a little.


total lost = -2423989

Total number of bets  placed =  48,706,527 

New lower house advantage after real long run test = 0.049767  the number to beat "0.0526"

Actual number of spins in test =  281,782,130


on mouseUp
__put "" into field "f1"
__put 0 into totL
__put 0 into runtot
__put 0 into runtotTot
__repeat with i = 1 to 1000000
____put "" into zamOO
____put "yes" into holdZero
____put 0 into totLhold
____repeat with y = 1 to 331
______add 1 to runtotTot
______put random(38) into zipX
______if zipX < 19 then
________put 1 into zip
______end if
______if zipX < 37 then
________if zipX > 18 then
__________put 2 into zip
________end if
______end if
______if zipX > 36 then
________put 3 into zip
________if holdZero = "no" then
__________subtract 1 from totLhold
__________add 1 to runtot
________end if
________put "yes" into holdZero
______end if
______put zip after zamOO
______if y > 30 then
________delete char 1 of zamOO
________if holdZero = "yes" then
__________if zamOO contains "3" then
__________else
____________put "no" into holdZero
__________end if
________end if
________if holdZero = "yes" then
________else
__________if totLhold = 10 then
____________exit repeat
__________end if
__________if totLhold = -10 then
____________exit repeat
__________end if
__________add 1 to runtot
__________if zip = 1 then
____________subtract 1 from totLhold
__________else
____________add 1 to totLhold
__________end if
________end if
______end if
____end repeat
____add totLhold to totL
__end repeat
__put (totL / runtot) into cck
__put totL & " -- " & runtot & " -- " & cck & " -- " & runtotTot into field "f1"
end mouseUp

after a billion spins:

-2,423,989 -- 48,706,527 -- 0.049767 -- 281,782,130

-2,431,805 -- 48,634,899 -- 0.050001 -- 281,790,284

-2,424,882 -- 48,681,252 -- 0.049811 -- 281,908,415

-2,424,818 -- 48,639,756 -- 0.049853 -- 281,793,286

The one quarter of one percent improvement holds up.

Read it and weep.

[Herb]

*sigh*

Anyway, read the article. 

[gizmotron]

Herb, *sigh*

What am I supposed to learn, I read it, it's basic probability.

You have no clue, I showed you the proof. Others are proving it too. They are writing their own computer Sims that show that the probability math can be broken in billions of trials.

Do you need an aspirin? I'll use the same math as your primer advises. These are the results of someone else trying my solutions to beat it. The real number to beat is 0.0526 in probability. Look at these.

Total bets placed 407073
Total number of bets won on low numbers 194768
Total number of bets lost 212305

212305 - 194768 = 17537 -- (17537 / 407073) = 0.043080

----

Total bets placed 1026608
Total number of bets won on low numbers 490929
Total number of bets lost 535679

535679 - 490929 = 44750 (44750 / 1026608) = 0.043590

----

Total bets placed 1020335
Total number of bets won on low numbers 488119
Total number of bets lost 532216

532216 - 488119 = 44097 ( 44097 / 1020335) = 0.043218

----

Total bets placed 4094557
Total number of bets won on low numbers 1956288
Total number of bets lost 2138269

2138269 - 1956288 = 181981 (181981 / 4094557) = 0.044444

[Herb]

 

You can have the last word.

[Mr J]

"Don't trash this forum the way you and Spike trashed GG." --- It will SLOWLY happen.  Ken

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Hello Gizmotron,

You wrote:
"After more than 281 million actual spins..."

May I ask: Where did you find that 00-spins-collection?

A lot of people ask for 00-spins, you know. Please make a post in the "Actuals / Permanences" area.
Please...


TIA
KFS

[gizmotron]

I don't know about others but I thought Turbo was going to show us something. I've done all the work and you provided all the improper remarks, and started it here.

That's OK. Almost all roulette players are going to believe the basic premise of this thread, that it's impossible. I'm not going to apologize for you attacking me and calling it me trashing this forum. I know how to act here and have only tried to discuss something.

On this topic was a wonderful discussion by several others that wanted to get to the bottom of it and never attacked each other. Yes there were people that came into that thread to disrupted it, to take it off topic. I resent those that can't handle an objection on the basis of really learning something. I presented you with the proof and you have produced a belief topic to refute it. That's not enough proof for me. The RNG is not suspect even if you think that others will stand with you that it must be.

I'm not about trying to find people that want to discuss Roulette and have it turn into an argument. I had no idea that this petty arguing would pop up here. It should not have. Just look at the thread title.

It demands proof. Is that too difficult to consider?

[VLSroulette]

Hello dears.

We all want our roulette sharing & exchange place to remain.

Remember there is a section for "that other type" of discussion right at this very page to use:

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/uncensored-pit/

Shall you feel you need it

Regards.
Victor

[gizmotron]

They are RNG spins that I wrote the code on so there is no tampering. If you can't use a computer to confirm long term results then I guess you will have to find your proof in a step by step walk through each objection. I'm using one of the most modern RNGs in the industry. It that uses microseconds since 1970 to establish the random seed. My Sim asks for a new session to start after each 331 spins. Each spin is independently asked for. The process for running this many tests takes more than 15 minutes to process over 300 million spins. In that large of a sample I reverse engineered my Sim with the same RNG and ran it for 300 million spins and got the correct 0.0526 house's advantage. The RNG produces accurate enough results to get a correct reading when no conditional selection is offered.

I did what all good scientists are required to do to prove the RNG as good enough.

Please tell me about any objections with RNG that are suspect. I'm here to listen and learn about what you believe.

[Herb]

The results just aren't relevant.

[gizmotron]

Victor, I feel like a heretic. I've had nothing but trouble with this topic. It's like a sacred cow or something. I thought this would excite interest, but not anger. I don't want to go to the pit because it produces and helps nothing.

[Herb]

go to the chat. We can talk there.

This way we won't create a thread 100 feet long. lol.

[gizmotron]

Is that your function Herb? I'm going to wait for Turbo to see what he has. I know the significance of what I have done. Every book on gambling says you can't change the odds. I think I will let someone you like let you in on it. Stuff like this doesn't stay under a rock no matter how many try to stop it.

You know something? Turbo just might have more fun and games for you to consider. I really hope so.

[gizmotron]

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