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Started by MauiSunset, January 25, 2011, 02:19:08 PM

0 Members and 16 Guests are viewing this topic.

MauiSunset

Quote from: pins on January 27, 2011, 02:15:07 AM
picking even money chanches proves nothing. the key is to pick five numbers. together on the wheel. going on past results.  and make a profit.

I always break down a problem into smaller chunks to work on.  The binary choices are as small as you can get and the odds indicate they are the weakest being 1 to 1.

I like European Roulette because the house only get's a tax of 1/37 (2.7%) and there are a lot of money management techniques that lend themselves to binary outcomes.  My bets are as small as possible for as long as possible.

Picking 5 numbers exposes 5 times as much money to a Green 0 versus a binary bet.  Also it makes any system 5 times as complex.

But that's just my outlook at Roulette....

bombus

Quote from: MauiSunset on January 26, 2011, 10:00:49 PM
Date   Close   Spin
1/26/2011   11,985.44   3
1/25/2011   11977.19   29
1/24/2011   11980.52   29
1/21/2011   11871.84   2
1/20/2011   11822.8   19
1/19/2011   11825.29   9
1/18/2011   11837.93   15
1/14/2011   11787.38   29
1/13/2011   11731.9   31
1/12/2011   11755.44   17
1/11/2011   11671.88   23
1/10/2011   11637.45   21
1/7/2011   11674.76   15
1/6/2011   11697.31   13
1/5/2011   11722.89   18
1/4/2011   11691.18   29
1/3/2011   11670.75   21


$5 on 12

MauiSunset

Quote from: bombus on January 27, 2011, 08:26:15 AM
$5 on 12

$5 on 12 - thank you

Straight up 12
Outside bet:

1st dozen
Low 1-18
Even
Red
Column 3

On the wheel 12 is surrounded by 8 and 29 with 29 being hit twice lately;  12 is 90 degrees from 3, the last number.

P.S.
I'm not trying to guess how someone comes up with their forecast - that's their business.  I'm just showing folks that your brain will find patterns where patterns don't exist.  It's how our brain works and you can't shut it off, that pattern matching ability is present in every life form that I know of - that's how we survive.

But although finding patterns in random numbers is fun it just leads to losing your bankroll if you use a random pattern to forecast the future.

Lady luck and good money management makes you smile at the end of the night.  Knowing when to stop gambling is more important than any "system" you can find or buy.

So how many "systems" you know of tell you when to stop?  (Besides running out of money)  When you gamble you've got to have a bankroll that you are prepared to lose and go home and you need a winnings target to do the same.  If you bring $200 and are up $100 is it time to call it quits or do you promptly lose the $100 plus the $200?

We've all been there and this question is probably the most important question that needs to be answered by any "system".  If a "system" never tells you when to stop taking winnings that "system" probably never actually faced that problem - too much winnings............

MauiSunset

DJIA closed at 11,989.83 which generates a 35 on the Roulette wheel.

3rd 12th
Second column
Black
Odd
High numbers 19-36

Anyone want to make a forecast for Friday's spin?

Mr J


MauiSunset

Quote from: Mr J on January 27, 2011, 10:17:46 PM
You are joking, right?

Ken

So how do I respond to that?

Start your own thread if you want on any topic you want; this is my challenge to anyone here to demonstrate, in real time, their ability to beat Roulette.

My contention is that forecasting future events is impossible in any game of change in a casino - you are welcome to prove me wrong.

This doesn't mean that you can't have fun gambling and with money management and some luck have a great day at the casino, but no one here makes a living playing Roulette.  Selling systems is another matter completely.


bombus

Quote from: MauiSunset on January 27, 2011, 10:05:59 PM
DJIA closed at 11,989.83 which generates a 35 on the Roulette wheel.

3rd 12th
Second column
Black
Odd
High numbers 19-36

Anyone want to make a forecast for Friday's spin?

I'm down $10.


$5 on 22

MauiSunset

DJIA closed today at 11823.70 which generates another 35.

Date   Close   Spin
1/28/2011   11823.70   35
1/27/2011   11989.83   35
1/26/2011   11,985.44 3
1/25/2011   11977.19   29
1/24/2011   11980.52   29
1/21/2011   11871.84   2
1/20/2011   11822.80   19
1/19/2011   11825.29   9
1/18/2011   11837.93   15
1/14/2011   11787.38   29
1/13/2011   11731.9   31
1/12/2011   11755.44   17
1/11/2011   11671.88   23
1/10/2011   11637.45   21
1/7/2011   11674.76   15
1/6/2011   11697.31   13
1/5/2011   11722.89   18
1/4/2011   11691.18   29
1/3/2011   11670.75   21

col1879

I'd like $1 on 2nd dozen and $1 on 3rd dozen please

bombus


Mike

Quote"Probability does not determine when a trend will occur and how long it will last."

And it never claimed to. What's your point?

gizmotron

Quote"Probability does not determine when a trend will occur and how long it will last."
Quote from: Mike on January 29, 2011, 12:57:06 PM
And it never claimed to. What's your point?

Everyone I ever attempted to discuss reading randomness with has always made the mistake that I was using past spins to predict the future spins. They won't let go of it either. They think that's what it's all about. So all of their arguments start with that and end with that.

So I'm throwing that very tired old argument back in their faces. They think that everything must follow a law of statistical conformity to its eventual end. Never mind short term coincidences that often stand far outside a normalized baseline value.

MauiSunset

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 29, 2011, 03:20:20 PM
Everyone I ever attempted to discuss reading randomness with has always made the mistake that I was using past spins to predict the future spins. They won't let go of it either. They think that's what it's all about. So all of their arguments start with that and end with that.

So I'm throwing that very tired old argument back in their faces. They think that everything must follow a law of statistical conformity to its eventual end. Never mind short term coincidences that often stand far outside a normalized baseline value.

What you are describing is loosely called "number vibrations" - that just the number itself, with no history, tells you about future events/numbers.

There are many many books on this subject - I probably read them all about 20 years ago - all bunk.

If an existing number can predict something in the future then we would have Powerball winners every week - the same person over and over again.

Like I said, there are NO documented cases of ANY ability to look at past, present random numbers and make any kind of prediction that rises above just a random guess.

There used to be a contest about 75 years ago I believe that offered $100,000 (back then) to anyone that could simply forecast if the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close higher or lower the next close; 25 correct forecasts would win you $100,000.  You had to send in a telegram before the next open.  I don't know if that contest is still on, probably not.

In Roulette its easy to predict 25 reds/blacks and if it could be done I'm sure someone would easily pay you $1,000,000 for your secret.  You should be concentrating on setting up such a demonstration in real time if you have this ability.

Just a suggestion.....

gizmotron

Quote from: MauiSunset on January 29, 2011, 03:37:40 PM
What you are describing is loosely called "number vibrations" - that just the number itself, with no history, tells you about future events/numbers.

There are many many books on this subject - I probably read them all about 20 years ago - all bunk.

If an existing number can predict something in the future then we would have Powerball winners every week - the same person over and over again.

Like I said, there are NO documented cases of ANY ability to look at past, present random numbers and make any kind of prediction that rises above just a random guess.

There used to be a contest about 75 years ago I believe that offered $100,000 (back then) to anyone that could simply forecast if the Dow Jones Industrial Average would close higher or lower the next close; 25 correct forecasts would win you $100,000.  You had to send in a telegram before the next open.  I don't know if that contest is still on, probably not.

In Roulette its easy to predict 25 reds/blacks and if it could be done I'm sure someone would easily pay you $1,000,000 for your secret.  You should be concentrating on setting up such a demonstration in real time if you have this ability.

Just a suggestion.....


Thank you for in effect confirming my point and making it in the same place. If you listen to yourself you are telling me that I'm saying it's about prediction. AND THEN YOU GO ON TO GIVE ME ADVICE. Why can't you listen? You can't hear me and you can't even hear yourself. I want to use the name calling phrase "moron." But that can't be. You say you are an engineer of some kind.

MauiSunset

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 29, 2011, 07:57:37 PM
Thank you for in effect confirming my point and making it in the same place. If you listen to yourself you are telling me that I'm saying it's about prediction. AND THEN YOU GO ON TO GIVE ME ADVICE. Why can't you listen? You can't hear me and you can't even hear yourself. I want to use the name calling phrase "moron." But that can't be. You say you are an engineer of some kind.

I know I've won an argument when emotions take over - not that winning this one is a big deal.

If you have some super secret way of predicting future events then I suggest you do something about it before someone else takes the credit and the glory.

I know no such secret system exists or the casinos would throw out Roulette.  The MIT kids that played Blackjack went to Vegas not with super secret math discoveries but simple card counting technique that worked on single deck Blackjack.  The casinos promptly went to 6 decks with the Yellow card placed 2/3 of the way in for a shuffling and card counting is now a waste of time.

So even MIT and the smartest mathematicians haven't found the secret to breaking Roulette or Craps or Blackjack.  If they ever do the casinos will not hesitate in changing the game or just throwing it in the street.

All you need for me to marvel at your discovery is a test in real time - like the one I'm holding here.  If you can make 10 predictions (legal gambling bets) and all 10 are winners you have my attention.  Do it 25 out of 25 times and some rich dude will offer you more money than you can count in a lifetime.

Best of luck........

MauiSunset

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