How long until you know it works?

[shasta]

Hi all

This is a quick question to tap into the people on the forum who have seriously tried to implement visual ballistics in a real casino. Roughly how many bets do you think you have to lay until you can be sure that you have an edge over the house? You wont know in the short run that's for sure.

Lets hear from the experts on this one.

Thanks
shasta

[Zindrod]

I disagree with you.

Before a wheel is played you still would need to track it and put together a scatter chart. While doing this you would virtually calculate 'strike number' because that is also noted in your chart. A proper scatter chart is much more involved than just looking at scatter from the strike number.

When you have sufficient info, you should already know just by looking at your 'strike numbers' and your 'strike prediction numbers' whether you have an edge or not. Like I say your tracking sheet that should be used must allow for a helluva lot of info.

If you have all the info, you will note certain wheel speeds being beneficial whereas other wheel speeds are not. So within your scatter chart you will have certain speeds that would give you better scatter patterns than other wheel speeds.

Overlapping sectors are also picked up in this way (regarding deflectors).

So you see if you did your homework, you will know before you play if you have an edge or not. If not you would not play. If you find that certain wheel speeds gives an advantage, only play those. Your scatter chart must even tell you the amount of numbers to bet.

[Kelly]

I think shasta looks more for when the edge has manifestet itself mathematicly.

Well, i have a scheme for how long a play can still be in the red even though you have an edge.

If the edge is +2% you can actually still be in minus after 15596 spins if you happens to hit a - 3 Standard Deviation. Despite that you have an edge.

If the edge is:

2%................15596 spins
4%..................7946 spins
6%..................5396 spins
8%..................4121 spins
10%................3356 spins
15%................2335 spins
20%................1825 spins

The edge by wheel clocking is typicly between +6 - 20%. So no, you won`t be able to tell in one night. Statisticly, but as described in Laurance Scotts first book there are formulas where you give each part of the prediction a value, so in the end, you will know where your edge can be under maximum circumstances, but you will usually settle for a lot less because nothing ever comes down perfect. 

[Kelly]

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