Optimum System

[daveylibra]

Hi All!

After reading many ideas for systems on this forum, I am trying to devise the optimum system.

I think that if we can agree on a few basic points, this will become easier.

1. Can we all agree that past results are of no influence? Even when considering the Law of the Third?
    I think the most experienced players can agree on this.

2. Most experienced players seem to say that flat-betting is the only way to bet. Can we all agree that even a short
    progression is a no-go.

3. Each spin has a chance of losing. We need a stop-loss, but one that ensures that, on average, the amount we win will be
    greater than that lost on a losing streak before our stop-loss.

4. If we agree on the above, then we need to devise a system where we flat-bet, using only money management as a 'tool'
    for winning.

    Would be very interested in any comments, so we might get together to devise this 'Optimum System.'

     Regards,
     Daveylibra

[DRAGEN]

I agree with your observations but I use a progression system
Will be interesting to see others views on your topic

[daveylibra]

If using a progression, a lot of systems, eg the Labouchere, will win for a long time but then crash. The Labouchere does not take a long time to reach a loss of x10 or x20 the target, so if we set either of these as a stop-loss, we would have to complete another 10 (or 20) rounds to get back where we started, I think it's correct in saying? Which is a case of 1 step forward, 2 step back.

Interested, though, in the 6-point divisor. In Lanky's threads, is he rounding up his stake, or rounding to the nearest integer, on his roulette version? (ie target/divisor)
Any help is appreciated.
Cheers!

[xman1970]

@daveylibra

1. If your not using past spins, then what DO you use ?

2. flat-betting 100%

3. If you use a stop-loss then maybe, just maybe your system/method isn't the way to go

good luck

[luckyfella]

Agree with all your points that set the fundamental base. About progression or not, it should work with flat bets in the first place me thinks. Stop loss plays the role of being prepared for the unexpected.

The base concept of my system is to look for skewed distribution graph with steep fall off point. Take the bet at this fall off point which should be clearly observable from historical data. This happens with inside bets rather than outside bets.

[Mr J]

I have made this point in the past.......the people that say, "dont use past spins for your method", actually end up using past spins in some manner, they just dont realize it.

Ken

[luckyfella]

Hmm.....dont use past spins....

.....So absolutely no historical data rin whatsoever manner.....empty....zilch.....

....whoever make such claims....pls follow up and tell us what clairvoyant method you use to rake in those casino chips or have you left your chips on the table regularly?  Thats definitely unheard of....or  .... Maybe Im wrong....theres a genie out there who can do such feat thats beyond us normal mortals....lol.....yeah.... Maybe I must be one such cos have been scooping up those chips regularly....clairvoyant lol....no no just plain luckyfella....lol

[ausguy]

I've got it now, don't use past spins but use future spins. Now that's surely a winner & could even be that elusive HOLY GRAIL we've all been seeking ?

Only one problem to solve now, how do we look into the future ?  As already suggested, CLAIRVOYANT ?  SPIRIT MEDIUM ? CRYSTAL BALL ? ELECTRONIC ROULETTE PREDICTOR (I just made that one up) ?

Maybe Planet Of The Apes (old movie on the other night) has the answer where the central characters had crashed & found that due to an assumed SPACE TIME CURVE had gained them about 1,500 years. Cracking the SPACE CURVE secret & with fine tuning could enable a look ahead of time in hours or minutes or even seconds ?

[Nathan Detroit]

Roulette is a game of LUCK but  not of skill.

Any well controlled system or method will do .

For recreational purposes only. Play at your own risk.

ND

[bombus]

Hi All!

After reading many ideas for systems on this forum, I am trying to devise the optimum system.

I think that if we can agree on a few basic points, this will become easier.

1. Can we all agree that past results are of no influence? Even when considering the Law of the Third?
    I think the most experienced players can agree on this.

On point 1 I do not agree. Past spins have immense influence. If you are using VB they influence you clocking, If you are using bias they influence your findings, if you are using systems they influence your triggers, if you are using luck they influence your hunches, and if you are using magic they influence everything. You might not win, but you are influenced.

2. Most experienced players seem to say that flat-betting is the only way to bet. Can we all agree that even a short progression is a no-go.

On point 2 I do not agree. Progression V's flat bet is an old argument that keeps doing the rounds. My opinion is that in the long run progressions and flat bet equal the same thing.

3. Each spin has a chance of losing. We need a stop-loss, but one that ensures that, on average, the amount we win will be greater than that lost on a losing streak before our stop-loss.

Point 3 I don't even understand, really.

4. If we agree on the above, then we need to devise a system where we flat-bet, using only money management as a 'tool' for winning.

Good luck with point 4.

    Would be very interested in any comments, so we might get together to devise this 'Optimum System.'

     Regards,
     Daveylibra

[daveylibra]

Thanks for the input guys.

Ok, do any maths people know how to work out the Expected Value for a particular system? I know the house edge will always be there, but suppose we have-

A Starting Bank value.
A Starting Bet value.
A Target (eg 3% of  starting bank.)
A Stop-loss (eg 10% of starting bank.)
Our Method/System/MM whatever.

These % can be whatever we like, but surely EV must change as we change these values. Anyone know how to quantify this?
I know its a tricky question.
Thanks guys!

[xman1970]

"On point 2 I do not agree. Progression V's flat bet is an old argument that keeps doing the rounds. My opinion is that in the long run progressions and flat bet equal the same thing. "

then flat-betting wins because you are "risking" less BR to get the same profit right ?

[luckyfella]

Roulette is a game of LUCK but  not of skill.

Any well controlled system or method will do .

For recreational purposes only. Play at your own risk.

ND

How come so many gamblers still don't get this?

Its all about LUCK!!!

LUCK is all you need.

No need clairvoyant, crystal ball, vb, ap, method....

Just plain LUCK.

And if you need to be lucky or not let your damn arseluck to keep following you at the casino....

You can follow the same luckyfella's bet

OR

learn how to place bets like this luckyfella....

.....logical ?.....

OR

ask urko....

Edit : The biggest problem is to use your brains to learn the how what which why and the lot.... when your not destined to be LUCKY.....

....say this "mine is not to ask the reason why"....

....with that youve increased the LUCK manifold for the casino chips to roll into your pocket.

[daveylibra]

Regarding LuckyFella's comment-

I have suspected that a completely random bet selection may be the best option, so as we may 'beat random with random', ie not look for patterns, although, as has been said before, the human brain is always looking for patterns.

How about rolling a dice, 1-6 = red, black, high, low, odd, even?

Regarding Bombus' comment-

Point 3 - Well what I mean is, we have our series of bets, sometimes we get to our win target and start again. At other times we get to our stop-loss and start again. We need to know how often we are going to get to each conclusion.
If anyone knows how to do this, without making thousands of bets, I would be very interested!

[luckyfella]

Regarding Bombus' comment-

Point 3 - Well what I mean is, we have our series of bets, sometimes we get to our win target and start again. At other times we get to our stop-loss and start again. We need to know how often we are going to get to each conclusion.
If anyone knows how to do this, without making thousands of bets, I would be very interested!

With that comment you have identified yourself as one with the gamblers mind instead of the academic mind we mostly find in forums with their usual ramble that benefit no one who's trying to scoop in those chips. This bodes well for you cos you possess this very important ingredient to be profitable at the casino table.

Read my 1st post carefully. Read and reread until you get the true meaning what Im trying to say. In everything we're trying to do whether vb, ap, method, whatever we're trying to find 1. a skewed distribution graph and 2. a steep fall off point. This steep fall off point is what everyone of us is looking for no matter what approach one adopts. If and when you can understand and appreciate this you've taken a HUGE step to move beyond the basics, reset your mindset correctly and position yourself for the next all important stage of the journey which includes-

1. Does this skewed distribution with a steep fall of point exist?

2. What are we looking for that has this characteristic in the 1st place?

3. Why must it be so? Not necessary but if backed with logic/rationale the better

4. Is this observation from past event  1.temporary or 2. localised, meaning in that casino only ?

5. It takes tonnes of hard work to hunt for it, many of which will turn out as false trail. You only need one to be profitable. This is where LUCK plays a HUGE role. You need to be LUCKY and gambler smart to stumble upon it.

6. You also need to know how to test the data in a quick, effective and informative manner. This aspect is very much underestimated cos with this skill your able to elimate the useless, point you search in the correct direction while quickly narrowing the possibilities.

7. Pts 5/6 means you must be an excellent data miner with an astute gamblers mind. Sorry guys, you've got to have a lot of the correct dna greys between your ears.

8. If and when you do finally fish out this rare species you still have to consider the physical and practical aspects, eg. Do you need partners to work with, the number of hours/session, sessions/day, days/week, number of tables/session and so on.

Its a long hard road ahead. Are you prepared for all the above? Are you serious enough to take all of the above as personal sacrifice to chase a highly probable illusion? Ask 1st do you have the necessary tools between your ears? Never work alone, your not clever enough.

I made this ardous journey and today as priviledged member of a resort casino the transport, stay and food is paid for the casino, the only requirement to qualify for this priviledge is to place the required bets at the tables. The casino miss me cos if I dont show up theyll sms/email me and offer me goodies to entice me back there. What are they afraid off? That I run away with their chips and never come back sayonara. They need to win them back.

I tell you this not to boast or gloat. This is the gamblers reality. Either you scoop or you go bust and straight to the poor house. Theres no halfway house. Now that you know are you still up to it or have you change your mind? Its all or nothing the rest will only waste your money, time and life. The choice is yours to make.

Good day to all.

[luckyfella]

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