The Holy Gral or G.U.T the Great Universal Theory

[Herb]

Here's why Winkel's system wouldn't work.

He was attempting to exploit what some people call the law of the third -(slang), or binomial distribution of roulette numbers.  Basically it implies that after any group or of spins, some numbers will hit more frequently than others.   He was attempting to demonstrate that he could track which numbers were destined to hit by using those stupid, and confusing charts.  Yes, honestly, they were absurd.
 
Here's the problem:  Yes it's true some numbers will hit more than others, but we don't know which numbers are more likely to hit than the other numbers.  Regardless of what has just hit.  Regardless of how many times it has hit.  This is because the roulette wheel has no memory.  It doesn't know for example, that the number 11 just hit twice, and that the number 12 has yet to hit at all. 
You can build crossing pattern charts all you want, track all of the hits as they happen, and it won't make one bit of difference when it comes time to bet.  Why? Because roulette is a game of independent trials.  This is the big system killer.  Like it or not

. 

How to use the distribution of numbers correctly:  In a game of independent trials,  you CAN judge the goodness of fit of a  roulette wheel by recording enough numbers and by using what we call the Chi Square test.  This sample examines the distribution and provides you with a value that will enable you to determine what the chances are of your data being within the statistical norm.  Meaning, it can help you determine whether the roulette wheel is behaving in a random manner

Here's the results from testing:  It loses as expected at the house edge. -2.7%.

[TwoCatSam]

Mr Chips

Currently there seven such areas on this forum.  Swarm was the last to get one.  Victor can and will do this for almost anyone who asks.

I have no problem with someone else being a censor for their own personal forum!  I cannot set these things up and I don't know if Lanky knows how either.  The will of the people will determine if there are visitors to that forum.  

Are you wanting to see and approve the posts before they go up?  Are you wanting to strike down the posts after they go up?  Man, if you do the first, people will have to ask what they are not being allowed to see!  If you do the later, the bell is rung and you can't un-ring it!  If you have the ability to ban certain members, like Herb, people will wonder what he has to say.  And they will wonder why you don't want him saying it!

Mr Chips, please ask Victor for your own section.  I may be totally wrong.

I will say this from personal experience:  Back before I was an administrator, I asked a moderator a question.  Not only did he not answer it, he or someone else took it down.  I found that very frustrating!  It was a polite question which merely pointed out that his thinking was flawed--as I saw it.  Obviously, he did not want to even debate the issue.

Also, obviously, I never asked another question and I doubt if I ever spoke to him again.

Sam

[Herb]

Mr. Chips,

Having your own section would be a good idea,

This way you wouldn't have to deal with any facts, constructive criticism, or dissenting views.

-Herb

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

I have tried GUT to some degree:

I used my Wiersbaden file (see the Appendix of "Roulette Probability Made Easier" in the Reference area) so anyone can do the same to check my findings. I started from the first spin and used the numbers as one continous stream.

I waited until I had 19 un-hit numbers and then checked how long I had to wait for the first hit of those 19 numbers.

[Edit: Math says that betting 19 numbers on a 0-wheel is always 51.351% - no matter what you wait for.]

My file was enough for 25,078 such sequences. 12,798 of them hit at the first bet. Or 51.033%
Math says that 12,640 to 13,115 should hit if the result is random. Or 51.351%

I also checked if there were no new numbers until the 18th hit...

5 old numbers and then the 18th new hit:
5848 hits in 11479 tries = 50.945%
Math: 5733 - 6055 hits or 51.351%

4 old numbers and then the 18th new hit:
3026 hits in 5868 tries = 51.567%
Math: 2898 - 3128 hits or 51.351%

3 old numbers and then the 18th new hit:
1639 hits in 3187 tries = 51.427%
Math: 1551 - 1721 hits or 51.351%

2 old numbers and then the 18th new hit:
824 hits in 1692 tries = 48.699%
Math: 807 - 930 hits or 51.351%

1 old number and then the 18th new hit:
497 hits in 978 tries = 50.817%
Math: 455 - 549 hits or 51.351%

All SIX last numbers were new numbers:
964 hits in 1874 tries = 51.440%
Math: 897 - 1027 hits or 51.351%


Regards,
KFS

[TwoCatSam]

KFS

So, are you saying it follows the expected norm almost to the letter? 

Sam

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Sam, and All,

I'm afraid that at least the first opportunity for the first crossing (19:18) is in my sample.
Too bad. 

I haven't checked more.
(Edit: There's a lot of data for the 19-numbers bet in the file but I only copied the first-hit figures)


/KFS

[Herb]

See post 561

I understood it, I handily explained why it wouldn't work, and I posted the final result.

I'm sorry if you didn't like the outcome.

Please point to the post where you feel that you have been abused by me. 

-Herb

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Mr Chips,

My results in post 564 indicate the same kind of losses.
Too bad, really.


KFS

[Herb]

I posted the result as well, -2.7%



Now, let's talk about those feeling of abuse that you're having.

Why are you feeling abused?  Please point me to a post, so that I may understand how I have abused you.


-Herb

[Herb]

Mr Chips-I was suggesting the facility of a temporary section for those who qualify and want it, to explain their systems without having to be subjected to personal abuse or stupid comments about their system which is not constructive comments.

I haven't had to result to personal attacks or abusive comments Mr. Chips.  I just post the facts.

[winkel]

to Kon-Fu-Sed

before this is totally ruined please take notice of this:

@all

[highlight]as I mentioned before it the BASIC!!!!!!!!
[/highlight]
@TCS
you got the way of counting the numbers.

your question for the second position:
13 12 12
wins and changes to
12 13 12

betting the 13 would be right following the original system.
But I have to make sure you all understand the way the system selects the numbers. After you got that I can explain further hints to play or to play not.

I think it would be best you take some spins of your past games or out of thread of original dublin-spins or take OC-Spins or any other origin.

[highlight]First hint: Don´t play the 19 or 18 numbers. Play only less than 18 numbers.[/highlight]

br
winkel

And as another advice I gave: Watch what´s going on

Therefore your test had had to be just turned around:

It is not interesting this way
spin x there is 19 what is in spin x+1

[highlight]This is interesting:[/highlight]
spin x there is 19 what happened in spin x-1 (x-2;x-3;x-4 etc.)
and then:
what happens in spin x+1

@purple

please use the GUT-Tracker, put numbers in and watch whats going on. It will answer all your questions.



@herb

you are right from the point of primary school. Try to qualify for next level.

br
winkel

[TwoCatSam]

winkel!!

Welcome back!

Sam

[alex00]

The Winkel's system for selecting is very intelligent.
We must however come in different variations that can produce.
Test summary does not make sense!
The crossings are there and there will always be. Who does not want to see them think otherwise ... the beautiful women, for example ... or cultivate the garden ...
The wheel produces phenomena in repetitive cycles and these need to be closed exploited.

Regards

Alex00

[winkel]

....  I asked winkel questions he would/could not answer.  There is nothing wrong with that.  

......

Sam

@ TCS

when did this happen? I´m sorry if I didn´t , please ask again.

br
winkel

btw.
I´m mot really back. I just don´t want this ruined completly. Perhaps someone can split the personal discussions to a new topic.

[Herb]

Winkel,

When people asked you questions you resorted to calling them idiots.  That's what is meant when people say the questions went unanswered.

[Herb]

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