The Holy Gral or G.U.T the Great Universal Theory

[winkel]

Hi alex,

do you want it explained on GUTCBA- or tracker4-results?

your first trot:
your first trigger dies
your second trigger dies
your third trigger dies

do you wanna ride this dead horse home to spin 50?
you are now at spin 33 and lost 40 units.

1. decision possible: bet the next trigger to die
2. decision possible: jump back or stop betting at all, because this is not your trot!

-1. we would lose this change of strategy as well. and the main trigger died as well, what ever we did was wrong. It is defnitely time to jump
-2. if we had been so wise to jump at once: (I use the step20 of tracker4)

Sp Nm W/L  =0 =1 >1 =2 >2  Adv bet                                                    =  BRoll
-  -      37  0  0  0  0                                                                    0
1 29      36  1           
2 20      35  2           
3  8      34  3           
4  5      33  4           
5 23      32  5           
6 27      31  6           
7 22      30  7           
8 31      29  8           
9  1      28  9           
10  4      27 10           
11  5      27  9  1  1     
12 23      27  8  2  2     
13  8      27  7  3  3     
14 23      27  7  3  2  1 
15 22      27  6  4  3  1 
16  5      27  6  4  2  2 
17 20      27  5  5  3  2  =1:  1  4 27 29 31                                         5     -5
18  1 W    27  4  6  4  2  =1:  4 27 29 31                                            4    +27
19 23 L    27  4  6  4  2  =1:  4 27 29 31                                            4    +23
20 13 L    26  5  6  4  2  =1:  4 13 27 29 31                                         5    +18
21  6 L    25  6  6  4  2  =1:  4  6 13 27 29 31                                      6    +12
22 21 L    24  7  6  4  2  =1:  4  6 13 21 27 29 31                                   7     +5
23 24 L    23  8  6  4  2                                                                   +5
24 15      22  9  6  4  2 
25 26      21 10  6  4  2 
26 32      20 11  6  4  2 
27  0      19 12  6  4  2 
28 31      19 11  7  5  2 
29  2      18 12  7  5  2 
30 19      17 13  7  5  2 
31 21      17 12  8  6  2 
32 31      17 12  8  5  3 
33 22      17 12  8  4  4  =2:  1  8 20 21                                            4     +1
34 14 L    16 13  8  4  4  =2:  1  8 20 21                                            4     -3
35 14 L    16 12  9  5  4  =2:  1  8 14 20 21                                         5     -8
36 20 W    16 12  9  4  5                                                                  +28
37 17      15 13  9  4  5 

[winkel]

If we had jumped back after we had another loss on the bet against the trigger and had jumped back then
that means jump back after spin 35

Sp Nm W/L  =0 =1 >1 =2 >2  Adv bet                                                    =  BRoll
-  -      37  0  0  0  0                                                                    0
1  8      36  1           
2  5      35  2           
3 23      34  3           
4 27      33  4           
5 22      32  5           
6 31      31  6           
7  1      30  7           
8  4      29  8           
9  5      29  7  1  1     
10 23      29  6  2  2     
11  8      29  5  3  3     
12 23      29  5  3  2  1 
13 22      29  4  4  3  1  =1:  1  4 27 31                                            4     -4
14  5 L    29  4  4  2  2  =1:  1  4 27 31                                            4     -8
15 20 L    28  5  4  2  2  =1:  1  4 20 27 31                                         5    -13
16  1 W    28  4  5  3  2  =1:  4 20 27 31                                            4    +19
17 23 L    28  4  5  3  2  =1:  4 20 27 31                                            4    +15
18 13 L    27  5  5  3  2  =1:  4 13 20 27 31                                         5    +10
19  6 L    26  6  5  3  2  =1:  4  6 13 20 27 31                                      6     +4
20 21 L    25  7  5  3  2                                                                   +4
21 24      24  8  5  3  2 
22 15      23  9  5  3  2 
23 26      22 10  5  3  2 
24 32      21 11  5  3  2 
25  0      20 12  5  3  2  =2:  1  8 22                                               3     +1
26 31 L    20 11  6  4  2                                                                   +1
27  2      19 12  6  4  2 
28 19      18 13  6  4  2 
29 21      18 12  7  5  2 
30 31      18 12  7  4  3  =2:  1  8 21 22                                            4     -3
31 22 W    18 12  7  3  4                                                                  +33
32 14      17 13  7  3  4 
33 14      17 12  8  4  4  =2:  1  8 14 21                                            4    +29
34 20 L    17 11  9  5  4  =2:  1  8 14 20 21                                         5    +24
35 17 L    16 12  9  5  4  =2:  1  8 14 20 21                                         5    +19

[winkel]

your second example:

Here is something wrong at spin 40 (-8-14 = -22 not -44 nad this -14 is not -80) ? ?


38 34 L    14 12 11  7  4  =1:  0  2  6 13 15 16 18 19 22 23 30 32                   12    -44
39 32 W    14 11 12  8  4                                                                                     -8
40  0      14 10 13  9  4  =0:  3  4  5  7  8  9 10 11 12 25 27 29 33 35             14    -44
41 21 L    14 10 13  9  4  =0:  3  4  5  7  8  9 10 11 12 25 27 29 33 35             14    -80
42 25 W    13 11 13  9  4                                                                                       -44
43 13 L    13 10 14 10  4  =1:  2  6 15 16 18 19 22 23 25 30                         10    -54

[alex00]

your second example:

Here is something wrong at spin 40 (-8-14 = -22 not -44 nad this -14 is not -80) ? ?


38 34 L    14 12 11  7  4  =1:  0  2  6 13 15 16 18 19 22 23 30 32                   12    -44
39 32 W    14 11 12  8  4                                                                                     -8
40  0      14 10 13  9  4  =0:  3  4  5  7  8  9 10 11 12 25 27 29 33 35             14    -44
41 21 L    14 10 13  9  4  =0:  3  4  5  7  8  9 10 11 12 25 27 29 33 35             14    -80
42 25 W    13 11 13  9  4                                                                                       -44
43 13 L    13 10 14 10  4  =1:  2  6 15 16 18 19 22 23 25 30                         10    -54

Winkel, excuse but I have take the numbers in Track4 (result.txt) and put in Gutcba and I have rewritten the numbers that I played.

I often I jump back, but I happened on the next sequence that I wore to the loss.
Also, do not play more than two times the same column if I won or lost two shots.
Many times the crossing 0 = 1 I had to bet there was also the crossing 2> 2. Happened that a 2>2 have a hit and not 0 = 1.

However, I read your suggestions with great interest.

Hello

alex00

[TwoCatSam]

A comment......

While I greatly respect KFS and his abilities, for me the Track4 is the only way to go.  Once you learn this little program, you can see crossing coming from four spins away.  My mind is so accustomed to it, I felt perfectly natural after being gone from it for 32 days.  Like riding a bicycle.....

Sam

[alarian]

I think I might be on to something,
but really it's a bit early to say... 

Check out my analyzing thread 

[winkel]

This strategy is much simplier as most of you think.

Imagine you are in a country you have never been before. You have no tourist guidance you jus don´t know where you are. It seems you are somewhere on a unknown planet. You have to find your way and you have to describe area.

You are moving cross the country and there is a tree. Would you describe: There are always trees beside the road!?
After ten miles there is another tree: Would you describe: There is one tree every 10 miles?
After 5 miles there are two trees: would you describe: If there is a tree after 5 miles there are always two of them?

After 15 miles there is a wood. How changes your description now?
You passed the wood and there appears som kind of rocky mountains. After a wood there is always a Rocky Mountain?
After the rockys there is a desert. What is your conclusion? After there had been some single trees there will be some twin-trees and then a wood and then some Rockys and then a desert? What about a lake somewhere? a lake in a wood? or a lake in the desert (with a wood and some single trees) or a lake in the valley of some Rockys? and trees on a hill?

So what should we do? We can only describe what is going on now. After a while we know: Everything can happen. There will be trees and no trees and trees at a lake and on a hill etc.

The country we are riding has 37 possible things to appear. If we ride 37 miles we only meet 24 of them. the next 37 miles wil have the same sight or a completely other.

what we just know is the farther we go on our trip the more things will appear until we have seen all! As long as we cut in the route into 37-miles-trips we will have a average of apearances. And we can feel save knowing that.

Kon-Fu-Sed is right, when he says and proofs: after 100 000 000 tries there will be always the same conclusion or result: -2,7%
But that is what makes us safe and confident to reach the end of our daily trip through this unknown country.
we just have to open our eyes. Of course there could be 74 miles no tree just desert. But we can prepare for this, can´t we?

And what we know is, that this country-side doesn´t change from one second to another. Coming from a wood trees will disappear slowly until we see no more trees. This could lead us to a sea a very high mountain or a desert.
If we are approaching a sea we will get wet feet.
If we are aproaching a mountain the way will get steep.
If we are approaching a deseert it will get hot.

Moving through this unknown country like this, will give us hint what could be around the next corner.

[winkel]

Now back to roulette:

What we see is the first spin at a table:
It tells us nothing about the countryside we are entering.
Even after the second, third spin we just don´t know what will be next.
The "dark side" calls it "the independent trials"

As I said before: When we stop for a BBQ after we have done a third of our daily trip, we can do some predictions of the kind of area we are in:

This means: after 13 of 37 spins. So waht can happen:
We have seen a new number in every spin.
Creating our map it will say: 24 of our possible landmarks haven´t shown up, 13 did, and none showed up twice.
But we have been to areas, where 27 didn´t show up, 7 twice and 3 more than twice.

After some hundered rides through our country we will know this e.g.

Code Select Expand

24 1439
25 4552
26 5468
27 3255
28 1066
29 180
30 19
31 3


mostly there will be 10 to 12 different landmarks on our first 13 miles.
after 25 miles we will know that there came up another 8 new landmarks in the last 12 spins
after 37 miles we will know that there came up another 6 new landmarks in the last 12 spins
after 50 miles we know that there will have been another 4 new landmarks in the last 13 spins.

If we stretch this we will come to Binomial Distribution.

If we mark our next BBQ at spin 25 and spin 37 we will find some "order"

After 37 miles we also know what we have seen the last 24 and the last 13 miles. didn´t we? so we could be able to see what will come up the next 13 or 25 miles.

This is what I call: "Watch what is going on!"

Otherwise you would drown in a sea, get lost in the woods or freeze on a hill or get dried out in the desert.

If we use the crossings from the Binomial-Distribution we have a fourth hint what is going on.

[winkel]

So what do we need IRON RULES for?

To mislead us?

You can´t turn left at every tree you see.
You can´t go straight if you reached the top of a mountain.
You can´t stop and wait if you are in the middle of a desert.


You have to make decisions at every landmark. The decision depends on the way you have walked til this point.

If I had started this thread just saying count the "0" "1" "2" and so on  and play on either of them, all would have laughed at me.

So I took one very easy to see and to find landmark: A crossing.

The "0" is a way we know it will end because it is heading to Zero. Sometimes fast and sometimes slow.
The "=x" are some kind of hills on our way we are going up and down antil the way ends at "no more left"
The ">x" are mountains in the distance we will approach to

If the "0" are falling and the "1" are climbing they both have to meet at a point. If we watch the way we will be able to predict this point.

If the "0" stop falling so the "1" stop climbing and might start falling.

If the "1" start falling the ">1" have to start climbing.

Just follow it and make a new decision, where the way changes (you lose your prediction)

If we go

19 12
18 13
17 14

why not predict
16 15
15 16

If we lose our first prediction we just stop and look around where the way could lead to.

what we know:
If we have to select 15 out of 37 possible ways we will be right 15 times and will be wrong 22 times.
What do you do in real live, when you see that everything is going wrong? Stick on the way you´re on?
Or do you sit down and change your plans?

you are sure, there will be a street, where your most decision are right. and this way you keep on walking.

don´t walk 200 miles a day. you will get rired and your decisions will be wrong more and more.
don´t walke ahead, when your feet are wet or you are getting a sun-burn.
If your are climbing a mountain, don´t walk to far with no rests.

Just stop making wrong decisions. You can be sure of making right decisions again.

So don´t watch for Iron Rules, there is no strategy with iron rules that will win long-term.
But watch the countryside you are in and you wouldn´t try to swim in the desert, you wouldn´t try to find a tree in the middle of a lake to rest under it, You wouldn´t jump form mountain-peak to mountain-peak as you jump from one side of a path to the other.

[alarian]

I think I'm the only one who read all that but point made 
Use the Force Luke! 

[Boo_Ray]

What about Iron rules how to watch countryside?

[winkel]

Hi BooRay

The Iron Rules of Chess don´t make you win!

the decisions you make during the ongoing game make you win.

br
winkel

[Proofreaders2000]

the decisions you make during the ongoing game make you win.

winkel

Which brings me to this.  After testing this system over the months, GUT is at its optimum at 100 spins per day, after that winnings become fewer.

[Poit]

This has to be the most viewed and posted thread ive ever seen  

[TwoCatSam]

poit

What a compliment to winkel.

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

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