[Hosted site] Grabb's ROULETTE CALCULATORS

[VLSroulette]

nolinks://nolinks40.brinkster.com/grabb/ is now nolinks://vlsroulette.com/grabb/

Message from Grabb to me:
(Some tiny parts removed)

Dear Victor.

I had the sad news that my site at Brinkster was down. That's too bad.

I got the word that you wouldn't mind giving serverspace for the files and I must say that's very kind of you.
I have been to your site and I can see it is friendly. That's nice.

However: The files collection is - sadly enough - NOT COMPLETE.
Everything regarding "gambler's fallacy" is gone. Too bad but that's the way of life. And of computer crashes.
Maybe one of your members copied those pages from the Brinkster site? If so: Please feel free to include them into the collection.

One thing: I am almost never on-line any more and because of that I will not be able to be involved in any way in this.
However, I guess many of your members know the tools so maybe they are able to help eachother.

So if it's OK with you that I'm absent, I hereby grant you permission to host them in public.
And I thank you.

All the best!
Grabb





...If someone can help to recover "gambler's fallacy" part of Grabb's site, the file in question is: gambfall.htm

Perhaphs you have downloaded and saved it with the site at a former visit, it doesn't cost to scan your hardrive if you were a visitor of Grabb's original site. It may even still be at your browser's cache. In such case shall you wish to run a search, then use only "gambfall" as search term. As it is common for cached files to have things like "[1]" automatically appended by the web browser.



In the name of our forum I thank Grabb for devoting the time to create and share his Roulette tools, and he can be certain we wish to hear more from him; even if it is only from time to time.

Best regards,
Victor

[Mr J]

Hey, there it is! lol Thanks Vic, it is a useful math link for anyone interested. Thanks for the info Victor.  Ken

[Homeito]

Hello,

I like this "calculator"!

I want to make sure that you do not misinterpret the results you get from the "Hit or Sleep calculator".
It is very easy to read Gamblers Fallacy into it the way the the tables show the results.


All this has been verified by a friend who knows a lot about math.
We have been talking all morning about this and I trust what he says.
(He showed me that I was reading it slightly wrong...)



...Each line shall be read INDIVIDUALLY and shows the win- and lose-% for the INDICATED number of bets....



I will use an example for Single Zero:
Enter "6" for "how many numbers" and "20" for "how many spins" and you will have this result:

Spins  Probability % to...
      ...hit at least once   ...hit exactly once   ...hit more than once     ...sleep all spins

1     16.21621621621621     16.21621621621621        0                      83.78378378378379
2     29.8027757487217      27.17311906501096        2.6296566837107385     70.1972242512783
3     41.18610941109115     34.15000098710836        7.036108423982789      58.81389058890885
4     50.72349707415745     38.1495506522652        12.573946421892252      49.27650292584255
5     58.71428133240219     39.95392129122369       18.760360041178494      41.28571866759781
6     65.40926273795858     40.169888433338414      25.23937430462017       34.59073726204141
7     71.01857148315449     39.26516121637133       31.753410266783156      28.981428516845504
8     75.71826259399431     37.59752888671849       38.12073370727582       24.281737406005693
9     79.65584163280604     35.43821134930561       44.217630283500434      20.344158367193955
10     82.95489434099966     32.99052708193614       49.964367259063515      17.045105659000342
11     85.71896552894566     30.404783067406015      55.314182461539644      14.28103447105434
12     88.0348089566842      27.790121132862502      60.2446878238217        11.9651910433158
13     89.97511020695163     25.223916253476553      64.75119395347508       10.024889793048372
14     91.60076801122975     22.759209259893602      68.84155875133615        8.399231988770257
15     92.96280563103032     20.430564297008736      72.53224133402159        7.037194368969675
16     94.10397228545784     18.25866647084024       75.8453058146176         5.896027714542161
17     95.06008488781603     16.253914240089202      78.80617064772683        4.939915112183972
18     95.86115220330532     14.419211678807272      81.44194052449805        4.138847796694679
19     96.53231671087744     12.752125643870095      83.78019106700734        3.4676832891225686
20     97.09464373073514     11.246540397154277      85.84810333358087        2.905356269264855

These are the chances to win or lose a 6-number bet if you make 1 - 20 bets.

Look at the two red bolded lines.
In the left column you see that 89.975...% and 91.600...% for 13 and 14 spins are the chances to "...hit at least once"

Does this mean that you have a better chance to win at spin 14 than spin 13?
Does it mean that if you lose 13 bets there is a 91.6% chance to win the next spin?

I rephrase the second question:
Does it mean that if you lose 4 bets there is a 58.714% chance to win the next bet (check line 5)?

Will you really win your one 6-number bet more often than not if you do not see ( = lose) your 6 numbers for 4 times???


NO!

That is to read Gamblers Fallacy into the results:
"If something happens (or not) at spin A it increases your chance that something (else) will (or not) happen at spin B."
or put in an other way:
"The more spins you lose the higher is the chance to win."
(Just look at the table!)


IF you have a 90% chance to win at spin 13 AND a 91% chance to win at spin 14... How many % is that? 181%...
AND you also had 88% at spin 12 AND 86% at spin 11 AND 83% at spin 10 AND...
This adds up to how many %? A lot more than 100...

That is not how to do it because you can only win in 100% = you will always win.


HOW TO READ THE TABLE:

Line 13 says:

13     89.97511020695163     25.223916253476553      64.75119395347508       10.024889793048372

...There is a 89.975% chance to win at least once IF YOU BET 13 TIMES
...There is a 25.224% chance to win exactly once IF YOU BET 13 TIMES
...There is a 64.751% chance to win more than once IF YOU BET 13 TIMES

Note: 25.224 + 64.751 = 89.975
The chance to win exactly once + the chance to win more than once = the chance to win at least once.
It has to be. Right?

...There is ALSO a 10.025% chance that you will lose all bets IF YOU BET 13 TIMES

Note: 10.025 + 89.975 = 100.00
The chance to lose all bets + the chance to win at least once = all there is or 100%.
It has to be. Right?


And Line 14 says:

14     91.60076801122975     22.759209259893602      68.84155875133615        8.399231988770257

...There is a 91.601% chance to win at least once IF YOU BET 14 TIMES
...There is a 22.759% chance to win exactly once IF YOU BET 14 TIMES
...There is a 68.842% chance to win more than once IF YOU BET 14 TIMES

Note: 22.759 + 68.842 = 91.601
The chance to win exactly once + the chance to win more than once = the chance to win at least once.

...There is ALSO a 8.399% chance that you will lose all bets IF YOU BET 14 TIMES

Note: 8.399 + 91.601 = 100.00
The chance to lose all bets + the chance to win at least once = all there is or 100%.


To conclude:

...Each line shall be read INDIVIDUALLY and shows the win- and lose-% for the INDICATED number of bets....


Nothing more.
Nothing less.


Best regards
Homeito Bemek

[VLSroulette]

This is a message from Grabb regarding his calculator.

Thanks to him for so kindly taking the time to reply and forward it for the benefit of the roulette community. It is greatly appreciated.

Victor



To all users of the "HIT OR SLEEP CALCULATOR"


To understand what the calculator shows, you have to understand the
question you ask and the PURPOSE of the calculator.


Now,

You use it if you want to know the chances...

* to "hit exactly once"
and
* to "hit more than once"

* (in other words to "hit at least once")
and
* that the number/s will "sleep all spins"

...when you're GOING TO record AND/OR bet one or more numbers for some
TOTAL of future spins.
(A "hit" in this case is to see the number/s regardless of betting or
not)

*** That is the PURPOSE of the calculator.



>>> ALL RESULTS BELOW ARE CALCULATED FOR A DOUBLE-ZERO WHEEL! <<<

(For a single-zero wheel, the results will be slightly different.)


BASICS:

For example you enter...
...a "1" for "How many numbers" and
...a "100" for "How many spins".

*** Now you asked the QUESTION "What are the chances for 1 number in
100 future spins?"


The result will be:

Spins   Probability % to...
    ...hit at least once  ...hit exactly once  ...hit more than
once   ...sleep all spins

  1     2.631578947368425     2.631578947368425
0                     97.36842105263158
  2     5.19390581717451      5.124653739612188
0.06925207756232243   94.80609418282549
....
99    92.86498948353507     19.090974084595356
73.77401539893971       7.135010516464933
100    93.05275291817888     18.776343464381405
74.27640945379747       6.947247081821119

Your four answers are found in the BOTTOM line 100 (you asked for
"100" spins):
* There's an 18.7763% chance to find your number "exactly once" DURING
those 100 spins (at spin 1 or spin 100 - you don't know).
* There's a 74.2764% chance that your number will come up "more than
once" during those 100 spins (maybe one hit at spin 1, another hit at
spin 2 and perhaps yet another one at spin 100 - you don't know).

* Added together there's a 93.0527% chance that your number will show
"at least once" during those 100 spins that you record and/or bet.

* Finally, you'll also find that there's a 6.9472% chance that your
number will "sleep all spins" during those 100 spins.

All of this DURING 100 spins. No more and no less. 100 spins.


>>>> That's the answer to the question that was asked ("What are the
chances for 1 number in 100 future spins?").

>>>> That's the purpose of the calculator.


So why are there 99 OTHER lines?

The other lines (1 - 99) are only for "service"...
Now you don't have to make a second calculation because you want to
know the chances for, say, 4 spins. You simply have to look at line 4
because it's already been calculated for you:

4   10.118045057972225   9.71696810184084   0.4010769561313854
89.88195494202778

10.1% chance to be seen at least once (=9.7% chance to be seen exactly
once PLUS 0.4% to be seen more than once) and 89.9% chance to sleep,
within a TOTAL OF FOUR SPINS. No more - no less.

The reason I show these results is just because the formula can be
used in an iteration, so why not...?


Maybe it would have been more clear if I had put line 100 at the top,
titled "Result/Answer", and the rest of the table is titled
"Additional results for your convenience"?



ADVANCED:

(No, not really )

Now, suppose you want to RECORD 100 spins and IF you have NOT seen
your number, you'll BET it for 20 spins.
Look: Here's a CONDITION! An IF-clause.

IMPORTANT: This is NOT added to 120 spins - it is 100 spins in one
sequence and when you HAVE SEEN IT - not before, right? - you start
the NEXT sequence that is 20 bets.

So you calculate:
The chance for a sleeper for 100 (yes one hundred - no more) spins is
approximately 6.95% (check the table, line 100).
So there's a close-to 7% chance that you'll get your betting signal.
Not very high because it's a high probability that your number has
already hit during those 100 spins.

And when you start to bet you'll have a 58.66% chance to lose ALL 20
bets (check the table, line 20).
You can't use line 120 because you've already seen 100 spins before
your next sequence (20 bets) begins and all those calculations show
results for UN-SEEN AND FUTURE spins/bets.

*** When there are CONDITIONS for you to continue, you'll have to make
ONE calculation for EACH condition.

The condition probably says something like "if you don't SEE..." or
"if you have SEEN...", making it obvious that those first 100 spins
are ALREADY RECORDED or seen when the next sequence (maybe betting)
BEGINS.
So they have to be excluded from the second calculation.
Likewise; the last 20 (bets) are excluded from the first calculation
because the first calculation is regarding a 100-sleeper. Nothing
else, less or more.

There are two "groups" of spins (100 and 20) in this case, and each
"group" is ALWAYS calculated individually.


(And Yes: You WILL have the same chance for those 20 bets regardless
the number you bet - your selected number or any else - or how long
you wait before you do it. )



OOOH...

If you find it hard to believe that a number that hasn't hit for, say,
120 spins has the same chance to hit as the latest number...

To be blunt: Your way of thinking is flawed; it's a "Gambler's Fallacy".

And you can easily check it:
Just look at a spin-sample of a good size.
The Hamburg or Wiesbaden spins for example. Or your own records if you
have enough of them.

Set ANY point in time where you say that "from here the sleeping
number has a better chance to hit than the rest". Maybe 120 spins but
12 or 1200 will do just as fine - the result is actually the same.
Always (given a good sample-size). I know this...

The chance for one number to sleep 120 spins is 4.075% (check the
table, line 120). This means that, in average, in four of 100 120-
spins sequences your number will not be found.
(You have to look for one and the same number in all sequences, of
course)

I'd say; get yourself some 10,000 sequences with 122 (!) spins and
look for one and the same number in the first 120 spins of all those
sequences - I did just like that (more in a minute)!
You'll find that approximately 407 (4.075%) sequences will lack your
number in the first 120 spins.

Now check spin number 121 in those 407 sequences for that same number.
You'll find approximately 11 sequences (10.71) with a hit. That's
actually 1/38...

There's 396 sequences that have had no hit for 121 spins...
Now check spin number 122 in those 396 sequences and you'll find the
hit in approximately 10 of them (10.42) = 1/38.

So in total you'll have 386 sequences that have slept all 122 spins,
right?
This WILL be so - I promise you. Check it!

Now use the table:
The chance for 1 number to sleep for 120 spins is 4.075%
The chance for 1 number to sleep for 121 spins is 3.968% or 37/38 of
4.075%. And 3.968% of 10,000 = approximately 396 sequences, compare to
above.
The chance for 1 number to sleep for 122 spins is 3.864% or 37/38 of
3.968%. And 3.864% of 10,000 = approximately 386 sequences, compare to
above.

NOW: If the chance to "sleep one more spin" is ALWAYS 37/38 of the
previous chance, the chance to hit is - of course - always 1/38.

If you check the table you'll find that in ALL cases the % adds up to
100% and the sleeper result is always 37/38 of the previous one.
(OK, maybe you'll find some rounding-errors in the last decimals )


And this is...

*** NOT ONLY IN THEORY ***

I have done live-spins checking (Hamburg) myself and I published the
results at my old site.
Everything showed exactly what I tell you.
Live Wheel Hamburg Spins.
(Unfortunately I haven't got those tables saved and when the site was
taken down by the provider the tables were gone.)

But if you do this test yourself you'll get the same results. Everyone
will. And all tests done to date show the same:
The chance for any number to hit at the next spin is always 1/38
regardless of how long it's been sleeping.
(If there's nothing wrong with the wheel of course)

And if the chance to HIT is always 1/38 and you are always PAYED 35x
your bet...



You don't have to find it hard to believe this. Just check it!
Or ask a friend to check it for you if you don't have the means, tools
or skills. There are millions of live-wheel spins out there just
waiting to be checked.
Simple, really.


I'm sorry (truly) but the truth is:
The ONLY reason that the sleeping sequence eventually MAY end is that
there are enough trials for the selected number to hit.
I say "may end" - not "will end" - because there's still a whopping
37/38 chance to MISS your number... each and every spin.



AND a last thing before you ask it (and it's also in regards to the
last paragraph):
"Why are there no reports about one number hitting 10 times in
sequence on ANY double-zero wheel if probability says it's possible?"

And the simple answer is: "Not enough trials. Yet."

The probability for one number to repeat 9 times after the first hit
is (1/38)^9...
You want that figure?


ONE CHANCE IN 165,216,101,262,848 spins (00-wheel)


Say there are 1,000,000 double-zero tables in the world.
Say they are spun every minute 24 hours 365 days a year. That's
525,600 spins per wheel per year.
That's a total of 525,600,000,000 spins per year.

So it will happen ONCE in the TOTAL DATA from approximately 314 YEARS
of 1,000,000 wheels spinning every minute 24/365.
AND you have to check for the 10-sequence using the data as one
continous, concatenated, sequence!
That is; in reality there may be some of the 10 in the end of one
wheel-data sequence and the rest in the beginning of the next (after
you concatenated them).

* So the casino/s involved maybe WOULDN'T EVEN BE AWARE of it (9/10
chance, actually)!


I am sure there are not 1,000,000 roulette-wheels, of any kind or even
added, in the world and they have not all been spun every minute
24/365 for the last 314 years...

Maybe we'll have to wait for a little longer before it happens...



Now, if there's ANYTHING of what I've said above that you don't believe:

Either...
* Check it yourself with live spins, and you'll find that I'm telling
the truth - both math- and "reality"-wise
OR
* Have someone who knows how and is able, to check live spins for you,
and you'll find that I'm telling the truth - both math- and "reality"-
wise
OR
* Ask some math- and/or statistics knowledgeable member of this board
(or maybe a maths forum), and you'll find that I'm telling the truth -
both math- and "reality"-wise

But don't claim I'm wrong BEFORE you have the answer.


This is my last post. I can do nothing more.
Grabb


PS.
A number that has slept for any amount of spins, may sleep for one
more spin.
This is both probable and possible.

And a number that has hit any number of times in sequence, may hit
again at the next spin.
This is also both probable and possible.

But maybe none of it is very likely...

[Mr J]

Lots of useful information from you Grabb! Thanks as always, you are a class act. Thank you for your time.  Ken

[Mr J]

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