Testing G.U.T

[See_Jerek]

winkel

Thanks for the binomial distribution explanation.  The more I study, the more confident I become. 

Sam

Hey Sam,

seems you are getting a feel of the GUT,I still can't catch anything up to this point,but seeing how winkel does his stuff is really encouraging.I will try to work harder to catch whole of something at least.

[madupz4]

Hi madupz,

I would decide this in a way I´m sure I will be crucified for:

binomial distribution gives these steps:
spin 1-13 it show about 10-11 different numbers to hit
spin 14-25 7-8 new of the unhit numbers till spin 13
spin 26-37 5-6 new of the unhit numbers till spin 25

that means minimum (10+7+5) 22 numbers; max. (11+8+6) 25 numbers this is sigma 1 of the law of thirds.

following may happen:
a) we have 16 "0"s at spin 21 and definitely 5 "0" in a row. Would you bet on it?
b) we have 16 "0"s at spin 36 and 5 "0"s in a row. Would you bet on it?
c) we have 16 "0"s somewhere in the middle of spin 25-37 and have 5 "0"s in a row
ca) 3 "0" came in spins 23 24 25 and 2 came in spin 26 27
cb) all "0"s came in spins 27-31 (or at any other position)

ref ca): we have still 3-4 to apper in the next 10 spins (odds 3-4:10 for a hit)
ref cb): we have still 0-1 to appear in the remaining spins until 37; in this example odds (0-1:6)
which one would you bet?

additional thoughts:
rer ca):
- is the law of the third fullfilled at spin 25?
- is it overdue?
- is it behind the average?


and again: any decision you make is okay. You will lose this time and win next time, as long there is a crossing.

br
winkel

So what is the simple answer?  Is it better to bet with the trend (Ex: 5 'O's in a row) bet the 'O,' or against the trend (5 '1's' in a row, bet the O hoping the pattern will break)?  I want to make better educated bets, so in all of your testing, what bets have had the slight edge?

[winkel]

Hi madupz,

I´m sorry to disappoint you. there is no simple answer.

What I´m trying to say is:
watch what is going on, make your decision on what has happened.

This decision can be right or can be wrong, that´s part of the game.
A loss at this decision will be recovered by a right decision.
After a while you become confident of what you are doing.
You will accept that a loss is part of the game.
And you´ll know the recovery will come.

Would I say anything else I would claim knowing what is coming up. But that is Magic.
The winning is due to the crossings not to the decision you make to bet or not. This only can help do win perhaps once more or to lose once less as you would do betting always.

br
winkel

[winkel]

the graph of the record some posts ago

[JHM]

Hi madupz,

I´m sorry to disappoint you. there is no simple answer.

What I´m trying to say is:
watch what is going on, make your decision on what has happened.

This decision can be right or can be wrong, that´s part of the game.
A loss at this decision will be recovered by a right decision.
After a while you become confident of what you are doing.
You will accept that a loss is part of the game.
And you´ll know the recovery will come.

Would I say anything else I would claim knowing what is coming up. But that is Magic.
The winning is due to the crossings not to the decision you make to bet or not. This only can help do win perhaps once more or to lose once less as you would do betting always.

br
winkel

Winkel,

For example. Last 4 spins were all numbers that had already felt once. Than the situation appears 0vs1 15-15. Are you saying, bet the 15 that already have hit once (1) because the last four spins / trend is that we have repeaters?

[winkel]

No I didn´t say that!

If a situation as described appears, YOU have to make a decision.
This can even with the best arguments and the longest experience be wrong.

that doesn´t matter, because another crossing later on will recover that possible loss.
If you are in any doubt: just don´t bet.
If you are sure, that now the 0 have to hit: bet.

The only rule of the game is: Crossing? Yes! Bet!

br
winkel

[JHM]

No I didn´t say that!

If a situation as described appears, YOU have to make a decision.
This can even with the best arguments and the longest experience be wrong.

that doesn´t matter, because another crossing later on will recover that possible loss.
If you are in any doubt: just don´t bet.
If you are sure, that now the 0 have to hit: bet.

The only rule of the game is: Crossing? Yes! Bet!

br
winkel

I see so when you have a 17-17 situation it doesn't matter which group you bet. As they have to cross?

[Tucktuckster]

I am testing this in a stupid way.

I am building a spreadsheet that looks at every strand.

ie assume number that you start and first 5 numbers are 1,10,20,30,5.

the strand with number 1 = the first strand.

then if you use 10 as next one it is another strand.

then if you use 20 as start it is another.

you get the drift.

the spreadsheet then watches for any crossings. If any of the lines cross - it says do not bet on the strand. end of story. doesnt matter if they cross back, it is first crossing only (after the 19v18 0v >0).

It only records a possible crossing if strand is on spin 25+.

and so if no crossings yet on a strand and 0 is on 14 and 1 is on 13 it will say play.

It then adds up all crossings on a particular spin. so on spin 70, you may get 7 possible strands with a crossing (mostly it is less). some numbers may get 7 and some 1 and plenty none. I then bet 7u on a number with 7 and 11 on a number with 1.

so in essence i am betting ALL crossings.

The crossings i play on the spreadsheet is 0v1. 1v >1. 1v2. The spreadsheet always take 0v1 over 1v since assumption is that it plays 1 crossing only so takes the type that should be falling.

FIRST test Result = 100 spins. +279units.

It has big drawdowns at times. but then wins nice. So if you lose say 10 crossings - then obviously there are many strands waiting to cross and therefore you get a spin with many crossings at once that will cross. Then the many losses are recouped quickly.

This could be a plonker way to play - but i will test more. going to play next on rng for 10p for a laugh and see what happens. This could be a nice one for bonus play through if it works.

[Natural9]

Winkel just for clarification I think this method will come out ahead if you play all crossings so if we play it mechanically it will win(I think your test results are showing that)

But if we use some suibjectivity it will perform better and I am guessing  the only real way to use subjectivity is  to practise practise.

Regards Rodney

[winkel]

Hi natural,

that is what I´m trying to say.
even the test of KFS did tell it:

I can´t say that a certain crossing will hit.
What it makes it win, that crossing will cross more often than not. Not a particular one, but in the mix.

or as tucktuckster said:

It has big drawdowns at times. but then wins nice. So if you lose say 10 crossings - then obviously there are many strands waiting to cross and therefore you get a spin with many crossings at once that will cross. Then the many losses are recouped quickly.

br
winkel

[winkel]

I see so when you have a 17-17 situation it doesn't matter which group you bet. As they have to cross?

no, only bet the first one, which is bound to fall.

if 17-17  is 0vs1 : "0" has "always to fall"
check if it is falling frequently, or it was falling in a row, or it didn´t appeared several times in a row

if 17-17 is 1vs>1 : "1" can rise and fall, ">1" is due to rise only
check if "1" is falling down from a top (e.g. 20)
or it is still rising in the last spins? How many "0"s are left which could fill up the "1"s
at which spin are we? early in the game and less "0" -> "1"s are bound to fall

Just watch and think about what is most likely to happen next.
You will be right much often than you will be wrong.

br
winkel

[winkel]

@tucktuckster

you found the ultimate way to play by yourself! well done! al my respect to you!

@all
since you look very close to whats going on, you will be able to make clear and good winning decisions, like Tucktuckster.

Just go and exercise and there will be no more secrets in the spins going on.

br
winkel

[Natural9]

Well really the GUTS of Gut( intended Deliberate pun) is if you play all crossings it will still win tho at times with drawdowns or eventually learn to be selective it will win better

Winkel you are a gem in this board we need more people like you

Regards Rodney

[Tucktuckster]

just played 60 odd spins on rng.

+219units.

i didnt bet the next spin which was a 60 unit bet and all were 1's and all live ones had hit 1's in last 4 spins.

it would have won. i suspect that many time it wouldnt and this is an awesome result.

[Natural9]

just played 60 odd spins on rng.

+219units.

i didnt bet the next spin which was a 60 unit bet and all were 1's and all live ones had hit 1's in last 4 spins.

it would have won. I suspect that many time it wouldnt and this is an awesome result.

60 unit bet thought it was flat betting

[Natural9]

-