Racing System

[Lohnro]

This is one of my simplified market based systems that I have been using on Australian horse racing for a while now. I am not familiar with horse racing in other countries, but I am sure the concept will hold up.

If the price of a horse is shorter on Betfair than what's on offer with the bookmakers, this is an automatic bet situation.

I use sportingbet.com.au to compare my markets. You could arb between the bookmakers and the exchange, but there is more money to be made by simply backing the horse to win or even each way with a bookmaker.

That is it, quite simple. And it works.

The reason this works in Australia is that Betfair is used as a "value" market, compared to the Corporate Bookmakers and the TAB's. So when there is no value in the value market..............................BET!

I would like to hear thoughts on how this would work in other countries? 

[bliss]

Lohnro,

I'm aware of this approach although I've never tried it. It's certainly based on sound reasoning - assuming that the betfair odds reflect the true odds of the horse winning (which has been verified, according to betfair stats). For arbing, you can even get software which scans oddschecker.com and compares against betfair prices, looking for discrepancies. When one is found you get an alert, then simply click through to the relevant bookie's site and place your bet - zero risk involved.

I suspect you're right in that using betfair simply as a "value indicator" would give you better returns. I've only ever used the UK markets, I must give this a try!
The only thing I would be wary of regarding the Australian markets is the lower liquidity compared to the UK markets, less money matched means potentially more risk of market manipulation or "distorted" prices, but if you've tried it and it works, maybe it's not such a risk after all...
Thanks.

[caddy]

Can this method of selecting horses be used in the states as bookmaking is not used here?

There are track odds and vegas odds.

[Lohnro]

Lohnro,

I'm aware of this approach although I've never tried it. It's certainly based on sound reasoning - assuming that the betfair odds reflect the true odds of the horse winning (which has been verified, according to betfair stats). For arbing, you can even get software which scans oddschecker.com and compares against betfair prices, looking for discrepancies. When one is found you get an alert, then simply click through to the relevant bookie's site and place your bet - zero risk involved.

I suspect you're right in that using betfair simply as a "value indicator" would give you better returns. I've only ever used the UK markets, I must give this a try!
The only thing I would be wary of regarding the Australian markets is the lower liquidity compared to the UK markets, less money matched means potentially more risk of market manipulation or "distorted" prices, but if you've tried it and it works, maybe it's not such a risk after all...
Thanks.

Hey bliss,

The liquidity is not too bad on Wednesdays and Sat**days, but midweek it could be as low as ten thousand per race!

If I was to use a bookmaker for UK racing, who would you recommend?

[Lohnro]

Can this method of selecting horses be used in the states as bookmaking is not used here?

There are track odds and vegas odds.

Hey caddy,

The only way we will find out is to try!

I am very interested in American racing as it suits Australian time better, being early mornings. I don't think the liquidity on Betfair is high enough for the prices to be relavent though. I have followed a few American races on Betfair, and the betting only seems to be on the favourite.

Where on the net would I find track odds and vegas odds, and are these live prices?

[bliss]

If I was to use a bookmaker for UK racing, who would you recommend?

nolinks://nolinks.sportingbet.com generally give the best prices, and their customer service is good too.

[Lohnro]

It's certainly based on sound reasoning - assuming that the betfair odds reflect the true odds of the horse winning (which has been verified, according to betfair stats).

Hey Bliss

I wonder what price Betfair use to verify this? Is it the final matched price, the average matched price, or maybe the SP? Or maybe even the price with about 1 minute to jump?? If this is the case, there is no need for ratings when you know the horses true odds before jump!

[bliss]

Lohnro, I think it's the final matched price they use, couldn't swear to it though.

there is no need for ratings when you know the horses true odds before jump!

Yep 

The snag is that the bookies also know this, and can adjust their odds accordingly.    It's no longer possible to find such large discrepancies between BF and bookies odds. BF claim 20% better, but this is an average, and you only find this at higher prices (sometimes a lot more than 20% too). Often the favourite on BF is no better than SP, and sometimes worse.

However, there are still plenty of good opportunities, because the vast majority of punters still use the traditional bookie. They won't be going out of business anytime soon.

[Phishalot]

I do not think this would work in the US as the track odds and Vegas odds are the same. Also the odds adjust according to the betting right up until post time.

The only way I know of holding value is to find a horse that is being under bet by the public.

EI: The favorite is going off at 1 to 1.
     The second favorite is at 2 to1 and has Identical forms as the favorite.

In my understanding of value betting this would make the second favorite the value.

[unosignz]

Hello someone has mentioned using an arbs software with your system can you recommend any good software.

[Lohnro]

Hello someone has mentioned using an arbs software with your system can you recommend any good software.

Hi unosignz,

I am not too sure if any arb software is available? Probably something you have to do yourself. Let me know if you find some though.

[rourkem]

Hi guys, sorry to bump this up but is there a new arbing software around that I could try?

[rourkem]

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