$170 Across LD

[Talesman]

No comments here.  This is my favorite 'last day' bet. Last
day being the last full day I play craps and employ the bulk
of my BR that I brought with me.   


The 'theory' behind this simple bet is that the shooter you
are betting on can make at least one more box number roll
after establishing the point before shooting the 7. Hopefully
s/he will make more than one, but one is all we need. Simple
in theory but some days tough in actual practice. So, pick
and choose your table when possible.

Buy in for at least $1,500-$2,000 (or more).

This is not an absolute requirement but it may be necessary
to have that much available in case of an early string of bad
luck or unlucky (for you) shooters. In any case, the psychology
of that amount in your rack helps buoy you. I'm not a shrink so
I can't explain it all that well. But trust me it does help the
overall game. Just don't blow more than 1/2 if the plan goes
south on you.

We are going to start out with a $170 Across bet after a point
has been established.

That is a $25-4, $30-5, $30-6, $30-8, $30-9, and $25-10.
The 4-5-9-10 will be BUY bets.

If you play in a Casino that collects the vig up-front then you
will have to decide whether it is worth paying the vig up-front,
win or lose. Personally, I'd not play craps rather than be part
of that sort of piracy. Hell, I won't play where a casino collects
the vig up-front on a Lay bet if I have a choice to play elsewhere
that doesn't.

Back to the bet.

As soon as one of the Across numbers hits you will tell the dealer:
"take me down to $22 Inside" unless the point has been made. You
have to love shooters who make the point and bullfrog it right back.
If the point was bullfrogged, we'll consider that a nice bonus and
you choose whether or not to leave the bet right where it is for now.
To make it easy for the dealer and to keep the speed of the game up,
toss the dealer 2 white chips and tell him or her "you keep the reds,
give me the greens."

Here is where we stand right now. If the 4 or 10 was the winner you
have just been paid $49 on the Buy bet. If the 5 or 9 won you were
paid $44 on the Buy bet and if the 6 or 8 won you were paid $35.

So, currently you have locked up either $27, $22 or $13 respectively.
Win or lose anything on the current $22 Inside bet, that is our
guaranteed profit.

Now that we have $22 Inside working we will play the following way.

As the numbers win on the $22 Inside bet, we will remove the bet
along with the win and place those chips in the rail.

If the 7 should roll before the point we have accumulated wins
of 7 additional dollars per winning number. Not only have we locked
up the original win as listed above, our pre-paid Inside bet has
locked up those additional wins PLUS we returned the bet amount
to our rack. Doing so lessens our exposure with every win while
gaining more and more profit.

Smart move.

But why do that when we could be looking at a monster hand? 

Well, the average random roller will only hold the dice for 4 rolls
past the point.  Actually it is a fraction less but I rounded up
for simplicity.  I have to go with the numbers at this point.

Assuming a 7 rolls and the remainder of our $22 Inside bet gets swept
up by the dealer - we will make another $170 Across bet and do it
all again.

However, if the point is made while our $22 is working we will repeat
the $22 Inside bet once more - so just replace whatever had won
which you took down. And keep doing that until a 7 takes it all.

You may be wondering why not just restart?

Simple answer.

Right now we are only playing with profits, not our bankroll.
And we will do that as often as possible and at every opportunity.

You may or may not agree with that point. That's fine. And after a bit
if you wish to start pressing some numbers then do it.  It's your money.

So far a very simple plan that has made you money.

But what happens when the shooter goes point-7 on the $170 across
bet?

Well, for starters, we double up to $340 Across.

When we do that, we now must leave it up for 2 consecutive wins.

Let's do the math.

We sit at minus $170 for this bet (we disregard any and all
previous wins at this point). At $340 Across if the 4/10 rolls
we collect $98, 5/9 pays $73 and the 6/8 pays $70. Now if we
are lucky enough to collect on a 4 and a 5 (or any combo of 4/10/5/9)
we have made back our $170 plus $1 as combined that pays $171.
If the 4 and 10 both hit then we collect $196 but if the 6 and 8
hit we only collect $140 leaving a $30 deficit. So, depending
on what 2 numbers won, we reduce the bet by 1/2 and take one more
additional win. In this case the reduced bet will be $170 Across
but it would be more if we have to double more than once. If you
don't feel comfortable doing that because your wins were on the 6/8
then don't.  You can make up that deficit later.  And since you
are already in profit that "deficit" is merely a paper one as it
came from winnings, not BR (hopefully).

Now depending on how the shooters have been rolling we can do
the recovery in several ways.

We can take those 2 consecutive wins on one shooter and tell
the dealer that you are "OFF" and wait for the next shooter
to get that third win, should the 3rd win be necessary. If
they don't allow you to go OFF (assholes) then you'll have to
come down and replace the bet after the next come-out roll.
Or, if you wish to chance it, and take all 3 wins with one shooter.
If you do that and win, turn all your bets off or take all
your bets down, rack your chips and wait for the next come-out
to restart. You are safe and you should take a breather.

In any case, when you have a win on ANY doubled bet, REMOVE
THE WINNING BET along with the win. That's VERY important.
Insurance, if you will.

Let's see why it is important to take down the win. Bad luck
can happen - such as you doubled, had one win and the 7 rolls
again. You double one more time ($680). Now you get your two
wins and reduce the bet by 1/2 ($340). On your first win at
this stage, you are back to par and more than likely have
made a bit of a profit as well. But had you NOT taken down
that win you will need two solid wins at the reduced level.
Craps is a game of risk, but let's minimize risk whenever
we can.

Win goals.

We should set them. And when they are achieved, call the session
to an end. Depending on the speed of the game this bet should
average between $200 and $250 an hour. A reasonable win goal
would be $500 which will have you at the table for up to 3 hours
at times. A session really shouldn't be much more than 2-3 hours
anyway so this all ties in nicely.

If you follow some crapsters' philosophy, and use 10% of buy-in
as the win goal per session, then $150 -$200 is the goal and can
actually be attained on just 2-3 shooters at times.

Now that you have stopped - go rest, grab a bite to eat, take a
walk outside and get some fresh air or something and when the
mood strikes restart. Enjoy that smug feeling of winning and let
it permeate your essence.  That will give you great confidence for
your next session which could be the same day, next week, or
whenever.

Let's say it is the same day and now your BR is $500 fatter.
We will start off once again with $170 across and reducing it
to $22 Inside, etc. But once you have accumulated another
$250 or more in profits we are going to do something a wee
bit different.

When we have between $750 and $800 in profits we are going to
increase our risk for better rewards. Now we are going to
take two (2) wins on the $170 across bet before reducing to
$22 Inside. We will handle everything else the same manner as
outlined above.

Now I don't think I have to tell anyone that if the table has
shooters that go point-7 a lot that you don't want to be there.
Ditto if it is an up and down grind. That is you get ahead,
have to double, catch back up and have to double again.
Nerve racking and you do not need the stress. No one does.
Remember, you control YOUR game. You decide when to bet,
how much to bet and when to color-up and walk away. Your
job is to beat that table at that moment in time and not
have the table beat you or beat you up mentally.

Also, before jumping in with the bet, observe the table to
determine if it is right for you. If the casino is busy and
tables are full and a place opens for you before you have observed
then sure, find a spot, grab it and buy-in. Just make minimal
bets on the Pass or the DP and observe. Or just make a few
hardways bets for a buck each while the dice pass around.
We never test the depth of waters with both feet. So, if the
average is about 4-5 rolls after the come-out and before the
7 with at least one or two box numbers included in the mix you
can survive at that table. Otherwise you probably should consider
betting the darkside if that table is your only choice. And
note the shooters as well - don't bet on the weak ones. No rule
says you have to bet every shooter. It is better to skip a shooter
here and there and lose out on a potentially good roll (even
the worst shooter has them at times) than to take the risk and lose.

You have the gist of the bet. Do not play it until you have
practiced it on Win Craps or like-kind software for at least
a 1000 rolls or more. With Win Craps, set your rolls per hour
realistically and that should be about 45-50 rolls per hour.
I can tell you that the bet does excellent against the pre-made
roll files, in the main.  Can get choppy using the RNG.  The RNG
seems to be 7 rich, esp. on the come-out rolls using the default
seed.

When you practice, you may wish to stop at $500 in wins or whatever
your goal may be and restart. Actually, on your first one or two
casino outings you may wish to limit the win to $250-$300 just to
be safe.  The closer you emulate your planned game the better. And
your plan should include win goals and a stop loss.

A side note:
Originally, when I used this plan I was using $32 Across as
the reduced bet.  While it did make nice money - reducing the
$32 Across to $22 Inside increased the profit rate well over
20%.  In Win Craps, on one of my test files, the increase was
closer to 40%. 


Get Rich and Famous.

Good luck.

[Talesman]

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