How I see Value

[Lohnro]

Let's say that I have rated a horse at $5.00, but I am able to back this horse at $6.00. This means that I think the horse has a 20% of winning, but the bookmaker thinks the horse only has a 16.67% chance of winning. My edge is worked out by the following: $6x20/100. Which is 20%. So every bet I make, I should win 20% of my stake. So, I place a bet of $100 on this horse and it wins at $6.00. My return is $600 with a profit of $500. Although, yes, I did win $500, the winning way of thinking is that win or lose, I won $20.

So, if I place this bet 100 times and the horse wins 20% of the time (as it should if our price is accurate), if the only price we could get was $5.00, then I would break even, but since we only place this bet when we can back the horse @$6.00, you should get into the habit of saying, win or lose,  "Nice bet, I just won $20.00"!

This is a long term way of thinking and the way we must train ourselves to think!!

[MattyMattz]

Very interesting and impressive Lohnro.  You make a good point. 

[Lohnro]

Yeah Matt, when I was first shown to look at my punting this way, it was a revelation!

I wonder why I am so interested in roulette then??? 

[Lohnro]

Punting is about VALUE. Value means the price you get for a horse is better than its chance of winning (however you work that out).

"Only bet when you have an advantage". It doesn't matter how you work it out, whether its by pricing or whatever, but make sure you have an advantage and know what it is and why it exists before you bet.

Too many people have too many bets on horses they like and think will win, but in reality there is no advantage in betting. In the long run these bets will lose you money. We have to remember that from the start the market is stacked against us. Back every horse at $5 and you will lose. You have to be certain that the next horse you back at $5, should not be $5, it should in fact be $4.50 or $4 and the reasons why.

Making money is not just about backing winners. Its about betting on horses who are going to win more often than their price indicates, there is a big difference.

Ask yourself before you next place a bet, whats my advantage in backing this horse? Why do I think it has a better chance than the market suggests? IF you can't answer than then you probably shouldn't be betting in the race.

[Lohnro]

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