Cause & Effect

[laurance]

Victor invited me to join this forum, and lend some of my insights into the physical nature of the same. Go, here goes....

First, I believe that only live roulette games can be beat. Trying to beat any game based upon a Random Number Generator (RNG) is, in my opinion, an exercise in futility.

Roulette can be beaten because the game is played using a real wheel operated by a real dealer. Both the wheel and the dealer can be flawed to an extent that the player can gain an edge. For those of you new to roulette physics, there are four methods that have been used throughout the years to beat the game based upon the physics of the game:

1) Computers. Computers take advantage of the fact that the motion of both the ball and the wheel conform to well known physics equations. Given just a small amount of initial information - such as the speeds and relative positions of the ball and the wheel - the computer can solve these equations and predict - with stunning accuracy - exactly where the ball will strike the wheel. However, the devil is in the details. Computers are very difficult to implement because a) they are unwelcome at best and illegal at worst, b) the modern low profile wheels tend to randomize the scatter of the ball once it strikes the wheel, and c) unless you really know what you are doing you can find yourself betting into a huge negative edge with a computer.

2) Bias wheels. Wheels can be defective to the point where certain individual pockets - or sections of pockets - will come up more frequently than dictated by random chance, thus giving an edge to the player. It takes a large amount of data to first find, and then confirm a bias. Then, you need to assume that conditions remain the same as you try and exploit the bias. Casinos are not stupid. If you can find a bias, they can find it too. And fix it before you are in a position to exploit it.

3) Dealer signature. In theory, if you spin the ball and the wheel at exactly the same speeds from spin to spin, and you do it from the same relative position, you should get the same outcome each time. There is some truth to this, and dealer signature systems are based upon this premise. Dealer signature systems look for a relationship between where the ball is launched (or, where it came up last) and the final outcome. Again, the devil is in the implementation. The very act of trying to exploit a dealer signature will bring attention and cause the dealer to vary conditions.

4) Visual Ballistics (VB). VB is the science of analyzing the motion of the ball and the wheel, but doing so with our human senses rather than with a computer. Because our senses are not quite as accurate as a computer, VB players need a bit of assistance from the wheel, most notably a tilt. When a wheel is tilted, the ball will tend to fall off from the same point time after time. This is a critical factor in VB play. In essence, a VB player correlates information gathered early in the spin (wheel speed, ball speed, type of spin, etc.) and correlates it with the final outcome. The correlation works because of characteristics that cause the wheel to act in a similar manner from one spin to the next.

All of these four methods have one thing in common: They try to find a "cause" that can then be correlated to the ultimate "effect". When you boil it all down, that is what beating roulette is all about: finding a cause and effect relationship that can be exploited.

For those of you new to VB, you are welcome to browse the posts on my forum at: nolinks.advantageplayer.com/roulette (given with permission of VLS).

The "holy grail" of physical play is answering the following question: Is the cause and effect relationship real or just a random event? This is where statistical analysis and wheel observation comes into play. Players who try and exploit a physical defect, or bias, most often fail because they do not understand how to distinguish a random event from a statistically significant event.

Also, remember this one underlying truth: Playing the game changes the game. Whatever cause and effect relationship you have found, it will be altered by the mere fact you are trying to exploit it.

Best of luck.

[TwoCatSam]

laurance

I'm not trying to climb your tree, but for the sake of some new people who may have read your post I offer these opposing views.

A casino is NOT going to allow a defective wheel on the premises.  Anyone who thinks they are should wake up and smell the coffee I can't drink!!  They have computers that monitor the wheel's every move and the dealer, too.  If a dealer starts to throw sectors, the guys in the attic will call and tell him to pick up the ball and count to four before he spins.

This old saw about some pocket or pockets having a tendency to catch balls more than others is pure science fiction.  These wheels are made to perfection and even if they weren't, a body would have to stand around for half a lifetime to determine the bias.  Long before you determined it, the casino would have corrected it.

While I don't know if it's ever been tested, I seriously doubt a 5% tilt in the wheel would make much difference.  And if it really does, don't you think casinos have perfect levels?  Perfect beyond question! 

As to whether RNGs can be beaten......

Long before you came around a fellow name ray showed they could.  He did it over and over.  So did a fellow named Holyman.  So where are they today?  My guess is----playing!

As I said, not trying to take you on; just voicing a different opinion. 

Welcome to a pretty damn good forum!

Sam

[laurance]

Sam,

You make my point about bias wheels. Largely a waste of time, but it has been an approach that has worked for people in the past. In some of the more lax casinos around the country you would be surprised at what you can find in the way of a beat up wheel. I recently found a wheel on a remote indian reservation that had a chi square of over 100 after 3,000 spins.

Good point on the RNG systems, but those were back in the days when the idiots who made the machines seeded them with a predictable number when you turned the damn thing on. All you had to do was identify the seed and you were in business. Today, the seeding is done via real time clocks and the RNG is re-seeded randomly after every outcome. I stand by my assertion that trying to beat today's RNG systems is largely a waste of time. But, if you can find an old fashioned RNG machine that is seeded once and then produces a sequence of numbers off of that single seed then you might have something. I doubt any of those machines still exist.

A tilted wheel will not show in up any numerical analysis of the wheel. All it does is give the VB player an edge. It does not imply a bias what-so-ever, and casinos do not level their wheels as much as people are led to believe. Finding a wheel with an exploitable tilt is not uncommon in today's enviornment. And, even if the casino gets out their finest carpender's level (which they don't) there are still reasons why a dominant fall off point will still persist. There is a large misconception out there that a tilted wheel is a bias wheel. That is just simply not true. A tilted wheel will produce random numbers unless there is also a matching defect with the rotor (which is very, very rare). A tilt is only valuable to VB, computer or dealer signature players.

All opinions and points of view welcome. I'm the first to say that my experience is limited, and I never discount the experience of others. But, the only point of view I can really bring to the table is what I have seen and experienced myself over the years. A good example that illustrates this is sector shooting.

Many people refuse to believe that a dealer can affect the outcome of the game by "shooting" for a section. They don't believe it because it seems so illogical. The wheel is going so fast. The ball is going so fast. It seems logical that it could never work. But, I believe it because of two things: 1) I have done it myself, and 2) I have seen it done by experienced dealers time and time again (especially when big money is on the table).

Unless I had done it myself (under the watchfull eye of Paul Tramble in his Reno roulette shop many years ago), and had seen it done in the high end Vegas casinos, I probably wouldn't believe it either.

But, you can't argue with what is.

[TwoCatSam]

laurance

Thanks for the reply.  For me, the jury is still out on dealer signature.  I suppose each must find his/her own truth.  If it works for you, it works!  Period!

Sam

[Kelly]

Sam if i can refer to the chart i posted in forecast.

When you look at the video  from where the chart is created, its very obvious that the huge unbalance with the easy ball type is a result of the wheel being spun with the same speed and the ball thrown  with the same speed. You can easyly follow how the high probability area moves towards where the ball drops, and bingo it does, and there is an outcome in this area.  So these 2 things in combination DOES make a difference. Not in actual numbers spun, but relatively to where the ball is released from. Pocket distance. Obviously the dealer can easyli counter this if he feels for it, but many mature male dealers here in DK will act very politely towards players and will as a part of this attitude maintain a steady operation with the wheel and ball, in such invironments you can easyly make a few bucks.

[berlinerbruce]

Hi Laurence, nice post

and I sure can relate to what your saying about bias and VB

ball landing at the same place, I got one mate but got to study VB more I guess

SAM, can you get yourself to EUROPE

then i'm sure you'll change your opinion

all the best BerlinerBruce

[Jakkalsdraai]

  Hey L,

About RNG, old or new. I know Ray only plays RNG. He plays RNG everyday. He also beats RNG every day. I'm not just saying this. I know it for a fact. He even won me some money on RNG. A week ago. This is no advertisement. Just simply the truth.

Cheers

Jakk

[laurance]

Jakk,

I'm not here to discount anyone's experience, and my beliefs regarding RNG are not from personal experience, but derived from logic. I have never encountered anyone who was able to beat the modern RNGs. If Ray has found a way to beat RNGs, then I wish him the best. If one can beat RNGs, the best way to proceed would be to win a modest amount on a regular basis and stay under the radar.

This is not to say I have not been intrigued by the diifference between live roulette results and RNGs. I know that at least for bias wheels that the data stream on a live game can be measurably different than an RNG stream. Live games also seem to have a phenomina known as "local attractors" that is not found in RNG streams.

Has anyone out there done a statistically significant study of RNG streams vs. live roulette streams? It would seem logical that an RNG stream would conform better to 'normal' statisical behavior.

From purely an anectodal perspective, very rare outlying events - such as the same number repeating 4 or 5 times in a row - seem to happen more often than would be dictated by chance in a live game (the "local attractor" effect). I suspect that in an RNG game that a truly rare event is...well...truly rare.

IF you had a game that had a huge discrepancy between the min and the max limits, and you had an RNG that was virtually guaranteed to produce a statistically "normal" data stream, then I would suspect that a system based upon sleeper numbers would perform better than in a live game.

Any hard evidence out there?

[ChickenDinner]

Talking of rare events, a few months ago I saw a number repeat 5 times in row on an RNG, one that belongs to a big UK online casino, and I think there is about a 1 in 60 million chance of this happening! I don't think I'll ever see that again in my lifetime... Although I have seen a few triple repeaters on RNGs.

Whether RNGs can be beat or not I don't know, but if roulette can be beat without physics, then it figures that RNGs can be beat too.

Cheers,
CD

[toby]

Hi laurance, I´ve started playing on biased wheels since 2008.

I use some of my systems playing on biased numbers.

It gives you the help you need to win.

Most of the times the bias is small, but it works too in the long run.

[TwoCatSam]

laurance

I am currently playing daily on the Golden Palace RNG as well as the Microgaming live wheel.  While I have watched thousands upon thousands of live spins, I have not watched close to that number on RNG.  I am not saving the RNG numbers; perhaps I should be.  If you were to spent 30 minutes watching my last video, you would see the 6 d/s hitting much more than normal.  Is that just an anomaly or a trend I can count on?  I won't live long enough to collect enough spins to know!  Seriously!  It would take millions and then they could change the seed on the RNG.  Change it from frog burps to mosquito farts.  Kills you every time!

What you call "local" I call "strange" attractors.  I've read about them.  I believe in them.  I don't understand them.

Today on the real wheel, the #6 was hotter than a two-dollar pistol.  One night the 35 never left the screen for about 70 spins.  One might call it bias, but I say it's just the wheel doing what the wheel does.

Sam

[laurance]

Sam,

I just don't trust RNG trends. Anything can happen in the short term (< 2,000 spins). I suspect they change the seed for the RNG every spin based upon a random real time clock (RTC) event.

If you have a known bias wheel, then there is a cause and effect relationship that can change daily. There is a dominant relationship that results in some numbers being positive over the long term. But, on a short term basis, other numbers can become hot.

The problem is in knowing if the 'hot' numbers are being caused by the wheel bias, or if they are just normal random fluctuations. When numbers which are not the long term positive numbers become hot because that is how the bias is currently manifesting itself, that is what I call a 'local attractor'. For whatever reason, those numbers are accumulating the hits due to the bias.

You can usually distinguish cause vs. random after the fact via statistical analysis, but the only way to know in real-time if the current 'hot' numbers are a manifestation of a bias is to just know the wheel you are playing very, very well. If you have the luxury of playing the same bias wheel for many weeks on end, you can gain a 'sense' about the wheel and you may be able to distinguish a bias manifestation vs. just a random fluctuation.

But remember: ANYTHING can happen over the course of just a few hundred spins. Just because a number is red-hot on the reader board doesn't imply that it is biased.

[laurance]

@Toby,

If you have the bankroll, and can afford to take the huge fluctuations and drawdowns, a progress-as-you-lose system is perfect low edge bias play - but only if you are CERTAIN the bias is real.

Random roulette is a negative expectation game. No betting system can overcome the house edge, and in the long term you are certain to lose.

But, bias roulette is a postive expectation game and any betting system - as long you don't overbet your bankroll - will be a long term winner.

I responded to your post on my forum, and feel free to e-mail me.

[toby]

@Toby,

If you have the bankroll, and can afford to take the huge fluctuations and drawdowns, a progress-as-you-lose system is perfect low edge bias play - but only if you are CERTAIN the bias is real.

Random roulette is a negative expectation game. No betting system can overcome the house edge, and in the long term you are certain to lose.

But, bias roulette is a postive expectation game and any betting system - as long you don't overbet your bankroll - will be a long term winner.

I responded to your post on my forum, and feel free to e-mail me.

ok

[berlinerbruce]

Hi Toby

care to share

all the best BerlinerBruce

[berlinerbruce]

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