a demonstration of why systems lose

[ryan08]

(based on a no zero perfectly balanced wheel)

the odds for 2 reds appearing in a row are 1/4
the progression for betting the same colour twice would cost 3 units

so to break even with the odds we would need 3 wins to 1 loss  1/4 (1-4=3)

now take the above but make it for a 10 step which is 1024/1
a progression would cost us 1023 units
we would need 1023 wins to break even with 1 loss  1024/1 (1024-1=1023)


so lets say we use a 17 step progression on black, this would be 131072/1
the progression would cost us 131071 units
so we need 131071 wins to 1 loss to break even  131072/1 (131072-1=131071)

so lets say we wait for 7 reds then bet 10 progression against them which takes us to 17
so now we are only betting 10 steps again (1024/1) seems very profitable compared with the 131072/1 odds that we will lose, BUT...

but we have to wait 128 spins on average before we get our first bet (128x1024=131072)

so overall it doesnt matter if we wait because the odds stay the same for us, you are only really prolonging the loss and wins.

and remember these are the odds on a no zero wheel and the maths tells us we will break even,
now if you add the zero, we will actually lose money everytime that zero strikes.


this maths working out can be applied to any and every system, and does actually prove why systems fail, not matter how elaborate the system is the underlying maths is still there.

i can write the same maths for dozens, columns, lines, splits etc if you need to see it.

[Marven]

Spot on Ryan! Great post. [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

As you said, this can be applied to ALL sorts of mechanical bets.

The systems/bet selections/progressions used may infinitely vary, from the most simple to the most complex, and STILL, the math will still manifest itself in the same way on the long term.

I believe that once these simple facts are comprehended and accepted by the player, the latter can then begin his way towards professionalism.

It is important that one learns to loose and accept the facts before he learns to win.

Regards,
Marven

[winkel]

Hi ryan,

please make up your math for betting 1 single number!
(and if you have enough time: 12 numbers)

br
winkel

[ryan08]

ok i shall start off with the simple, no zero roulette perfectly balanced again,



a 3 spin progression for e/c's is 1/2/4=7

there are 8 possible 3 spin combinations for the e/c's, ill use red/black for now

RRR
RRB
RBB
RBR
BBB
BBR
BRR
BRB

now if i bet against one of those combinations coming up lets say RRR, i would bet BBB, now i will win if i hit anyone of those combo's apart from RRR, so i would win 7 and lose 1 on average, because the progression is 7 units i would need 7 wins to 1 loss, 7/1 and 7/1, which means i break even, if i use 10 step progression there are 1023 winning combos and 1 losing one, the progression costs 1023 wins to 1 loss
1023/1 and 1023/1 means i will break even

the same applies to the dozens only in 2 spins we get 9 combinations,


1,1
1,2
1,3
2,2
2,1
2,3
3,3
3,1
3,2

betting 2 dozens we can only be beat by 1 combo (if i bet dozen 2 and 3 for 2 spins, 1,1 will make me lose) therefore i will win if any of the other combos hit, there are 8 more, giving me a ratio of 8/1, the progression requires i win 8 times to cover 1 loss 8/1

8/1 and 8/1 means i will break even

now for a single dozen there are 5 winning combos and 4 losing combos, but the payouts are also uneven, so for the first spin we will win 2 units, there are 3 first step wins, which means the payout will be 3x2=6 out of 9 combos   6/9 = 2/3

2 wins are on the second spin which will win us 1 unit from each of them, 2/6 = 1/3   

1/3 + 2/3 = 3/3 or 1 which is also break even point,

the maths does look a little different when you are betting more than half or less than half of the wheel, but they end up at exactly the same conclusions.



i shall do the single number maths for you tommorrow as i am going to bed for now. i welcome any comments and questions

[ryan08]

also I feel this information should be appropriate,

the house average or house edge (also called the expected value) is the amount the player loses relative to any bet made, on average. if a player bets on a single number in the american game there is a probability of 1/38 that the player wins 35 times the bet, and 37/38 chance that the player loses their bet. the expected value is

-1x37/38 + 35x1/38 = -0.0526 (5.26% house edge)
for european roulette, a single number wins 1/37 and loses 36/37:

-1x36/37 + 35x1/37 = -0.0270 (2.70% house edge)

so as you can see, the house payout isnt fair. this is why all gambling systems fail.

winkel, if you have any other questions regarding roulette probability, then there is a great website that ive recently found. you should study it as it will really help you with the maths, it really helped me understand. its called the wizardofodds.com
it will help you understand why all systems are destined to fail.

[VLSroulette]

Thanks for your article Ryan.

According to Manrique this "why systems lose" question is directly related to dispersion of hits.

He answers what kills these systems in the practical world isn't the house edge as much as it is dispersion between hits.

For instance, say the player is armed with a 10-step martingale. Player thinks: the ideal happening for an even chance is 1 in 2 spins, I can resist 5 times that! ...What happens if he actually gets his hit always within 3, 4 or 5 cycles of two spins? HE BEATS THE GAME WITH A SIMPLE MARTINGALE!

In your example of a no-zero fair game, house relies on making their money with dispersion of hits and the natural statistical deviations which occur in the game, till the point the player can't be in play anymore because his hits are too separated from each other (negative deviation) and his limited bankroll can't stand holding him up into the game, as oposed to the virtually unlimited-funded one from the house which guarantees to be there as it is constantly receiving funds from losing players.

In these "fair" no-zero games, the house is expected to win, a practical break-even point for a player experiencing more and more dispersion against him as the sample grows becomes more and more far-fetched.

When you think about it... fair no-zero game my arse, the house always has it stacked towards them! Adding zeroes only shows how greedy the casinos are, they want players money and want it faster!

Victor

[ryan08]

yes i agree, in a single session a player doesnt play long enough for the house edge to take any sort of effect so the dispertion is what will make a player lose.

however lets say for arguements sake you play 1000 spins per session, you will win and lose some of these sessions, after 20 of so sessions, (20k spins, and we have bet every spin) playing on a single zero table, your negative expectation will be 2-3% over 100 sessions, the negative expectation should be alot more closer to the 2.7% house edge.

i did the maths to prove that roulette cannot be beat no matter how long you wait for a bet, how many numbers you bet or how long your progression is, i do understand there are people like and including you that use strategies to make a 'system' work, but my post goes to show that bet selection is not important, its rather the player that makes it win or lose, eg.

if jerek posted that system he is using 99% of the forum would lose with it because they would play differently to jerek

[win1win2]

Hi Ryan
First of all i want to wish You and all members a Happy  prosperous 2009 New year

To-night I will be at the Casino to Receive the 2009 Year  with

Bankroll = 500unit
Win Target = 50u or more per session, 1 shoe target win 2 session
Target 6 shoes  double  my bankroll
Game play = Baccarat touch bets [1min a hand.]
System use 3 differential bets / 5B
MM pascal triangle. 3rd line. stop at 50u profit per session, 2 win session stop , lose500u stop
Bet Strategy bets without Fear [100% confident on  System ]
Time play; 1st shoe of Year 2009. will keep all records.

If i lose all my 500u will come back to report
If double my Bankroll will come back to say sorry YOU are WRONG.


Cheers  Happy New Year


Win1Win2 Bets without fear many winswinwins are here .

[Shorty]

You will come back to say that Ryan is wrong?

I WON $5 YESTERDAY SORRY RYAN YOU ARE WRONG SYSTEMS WORK

[lucky_strike]

Hi Ryan.
Here you have the math for 1/2 and 1/3 for even money...

1. 0,00 = 0
2. 0,25 = 0
3. 0,69 = 1
4. 1,27 = 1

-----------

1. 0,00 = 0
2. 0,13 = 0
3. 0,36 = 0
4. 0,69 = 1
5. 1,10 = 1
6. 1,59 = 2
7. 2,14 = 2
8. 2,75 = 3

Cheers LS

[Iwonder]

Ryan
Not that long ago, I agreed to provide my time and cpu resources to test a system of yours, that I knew would fail.  I happily gave up my time for a number of reasons:
1.  I am always happy to prevent people from losing their hard earned.
2.  I am always happy to help out members of this forum
3.  I am always ready to suspend my belief in maths, on the very, very remote chance that somebody has 'fallen off a log' into the pot of gold.

Ryan
I am a maths person.  I will always be a maths person.  I know the house edge.  I know why systems lose.

I am posting this to share my view on helping people

'Preaching from the pulpit' DOESN'T WORK.  Getting down amongst the 'sinners' and 'ministering' to them individually, as I did with you, does.

Please just remember that there are many that have come to this forum with ideas that are new to them, but which may be old to us.  Scaring them off with 'fire and brimstone' may just see them leave and make horrendous mistakes which cost them their livelihoods.
Alternatively, they may just have 'fallen off that log' into the pot of gold, and we have dismissed it from our presumptuous positions.

As a final note.  I have a portion of me which is from the dark side.  I agree with Wheel Bias and VB.
However, I don't choose to play this way as I play a mechanical system which wins on both a real wheel and RNG (from well governed casinos).  So - In response to another post - "take the wheel away and what have you got?"  A game from 0-36 randomly generated numbers that is still beatable.

[ryan08]

i understand what you are saying but this section is pretty much designed for a post like this, i have kept my views off the main forum so i think it only right i express them here, in the end im only trying to help people from losing there hard earned cash.

the reason i have made this post is because people like herb tell people that systems all fail to maths, but people think he is just being negative, more specifically aswell mr chips said there is no proof maths can be the reason why a system fails, so i made this post as 'proof'.

this forum is just as much for me and herb etc, as it is for anyone else, yet we are the only people who take flak off everybody for voicing our opinions, mr chips has started a topic in the general board saying that the darkside section is absurd, if thats the case then they should get rid of his section.

this section isnt about spreading malicious information or lies, its based on concrete evidence and whether people like to hear it or is a different matter, but for those who may be oblivious to this information need to read and understand it before they play roulette, and i feel it only fair they get to

[TwoCatSam]

"I play a mechanical system which wins on both a real wheel and RNG", said Iwonder.

Does no one realize that when Iwonder, Chips, winkel and soon enrique make such a statement and someone comes along and says it is impossible...you are calling them a liar?  Am I the only one who sees this?

Iwonder says he wins.  Who am I or who are any of the rest of you to tell him he doesn't?  How do you know?   How could you possibly know?

Chips has a winning record at Spielbank.  enrique was banned from a casino.  winkel wins.  All liars? 

When this forum reaches the point where no person wants to post a system they use simply because they will be called a liar, what have you guys accomplished?  I published a thread saying you should challenge the person to put up or shut up.  No one challenges anyone.  You just sit back and throw stones at people who try to help.

A little girl is jumping rope.  The rope always hits where her feet just were!  She's not there when the rope comes.  That rope is the 2.7%.  Yes, it's always there.  Any idiot-fool knows that.  We don't need a group of parrots on perches yelling to watch out for the rope!  The six-year old knows that.  All we--as players--have to do is not be there when the rope is at the bottom of the swing.  Just don't be there when the 2.7% comes.

Line up until your ilk reaches the sea and far into it.  There a people on this forum who win consistently.  Damn my eyes if I'll call them liars.

Why are none of you geniuses making real-time videos as I did and show us what you can do?  At least I got the balls to hang myself out there for all to see--win or lose.  I don't see a damn one of you doing anything constructive.  You got no money for a video recorder?  You got no money to buy into Motion Box for a year?  Where's all your winnings? 

You guys better be damn glad Victor doesn't take a months vacation and give me the reins to this forum. 

Sam

[ryan08]

Chips has a winning record at Spielbank.  enrique was banned from a casino.  winkel wins.  All liars?

can you point out for me where i called them liars please, i dont recall saying that

You just sit back and throw stones at people who try to help.

im not throwing stones at anyone, im just backing up my statements with evidence, it is not my fault if people take that as being negative.

A little girl is jumping rope.  The rope always hits where her feet just were!  She's not there when the rope comes.  That rope is the 2.7%.  Yes, it's always there.  Any idiot-fool knows that.  We don't need a group of parrots on perches yelling to watch out for the rope!  The six-year old knows that.  All we--as players--have to do is not be there when the rope is at the bottom of the swing.  Just don't be there when the 2.7% comes.

thats true, but you cant jump a skipping rope forever, you will trip and cut your knee, but hopefully it will heal before the next time you trip.

Line up until your ilk reaches the sea and far into it.  There a people on this forum who win consistently.  Damn my eyes if I'll call them liars.

read reply #6 and i quote,

'I did the maths to prove that roulette cannot be beat no matter how long you wait for a bet, how many numbers you bet or how long your progression is, I do understand there are people like and including you that use strategies to make a 'system' work, but my post goes to show that bet selection is not important, its rather the player that makes it win or lose, eg.

if jerek posted that system he is using 99% of the forum would lose with it because they would play differently to jerek'

Where's all your winnings?

the same could be said for you.

You guys better be damn glad Victor doesn't take a months vacation and give me the reins to this forum.

do you have a personal vendetta against we who just state the facts?

[Shorty]

Sam I hope you have not taken offence to this topic. Ryan was just trying to prove why systems do not work.

If this section is going to cause nothing but arguments we should just take it down, because that is all that it seems to be doing.

I personally apologize for any offensive posts that you have experienced from this section of the forum, I hope you don't hold it against us.

[Shorty]

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