Probability, Random Events and the Mathematics of Gambling

[WannaWin]

Probability, Random Events and the Mathematics of Gambling



nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?action=downloads;sa=view;id=278

[Marven]

Thanks WW.
This is a good read. [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Cheers,
Marven

[toey]

Great read, this is why I suggest people to read 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nassim Taleb. With the utmost of respect, systems that attempt to predict numbers or sectors by some 'rule' just don't work, because everything is random. Even systems that require watching the wheel, speed of the ball, size of the ball etc are suss because of how random the nature of roulette is.

[bliss]

Even systems that require watching the wheel, speed of the ball, size of the ball etc are suss because of how random the nature of roulette is.

You're speaking of an idealised random device here, which doesn't exist. IMO, calling something "random" is only a function of ones ignorance as to the causes of the events - perfect and complete information would eliminate the "randomness". Of course, this is idealised and impossible too, but the truth lies somewhere in between. I don't believe you can talk about roulette being a random game, you have to look at each wheel/dealer combination on an individual basis.

Interesting article on randomness: nolinks://nolinks.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~chaitin/sciamer.html

[lucky_strike]

That is a nice articel. Thanks.

LS

[toey]

You're speaking of an idealised random device here, which doesn't exist. IMO, calling something "random" is only a function of ones ignorance as to the causes of the events - perfect and complete information would eliminate the "randomness". Of course, this is idealised and impossible too, but the truth lies somewhere in between. I don't believe you can talk about roulette being a random game, you have to look at each wheel/dealer combination on an individual basis.

Interesting article on randomness: nolinks://nolinks.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~chaitin/sciamer.html

Randonmess does not mean there is no cause and effect; it just means that they are so complex that the only thing produced is uncertainty.

[bliss]

Randonmess does not mean there is no cause and effect; it just means that they are so complex that the only thing produced is uncertainty.

Not sure what you mean by this, I didn't say there is no cause and effect. The thing is, uncertainty to who? data may appear random to a casual observer, but to a deeper analysis may yield a pattern which can be exploited. Granted, it is human nature to look for patterns, and what you observe may be meaningless - in the sense of being able to make successful predictions, but to say that all patterns are meaningless would be absurd, because there are people who do win consistently, and this cannot be attributed to mere luck.

[ryan08]

Not sure what you mean by this, I didn't say there is no cause and effect. The thing is, uncertainty to who? data may appear random to a casual observer, but to a deeper analysis may yield a pattern which can be exploited. Granted, it is human nature to look for patterns, and what you observe may be meaningless - in the sense of being able to make successful predictions, but to say that all patterns are meaningless would be absurd, because there are people who do win consistently, and this cannot be attributed to mere luck.

the only way you are able to predict where the ball will land is by seeing what is happening to the ball (physics) the numbers wont throw up any such pattern that could lead to a prediction of where the ball will land.

[bliss]

I think you're splitting hairs here. You can detect both dealer signature and bias by looking at the number patterns - obviously there is a strong connection between what is happening to the ball and where it lands!

[ryan08]

DEALER 1-ALL CLOCKWISE SPINS

7
13
13
23
3
13
27
16
10
15
9
30
20
11
11
17
7
10
36
3
18
15
5
17
20
0
3
20
22
24
3
7
12
21
3
35
8

DOES THIS DEALER HAVE A SIGNATURE?
ID LIKE YOU TO EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER FOR ME ASWELL PLEASE.

[bliss]

What's the point? If I say there is and explain why, you will say it's coincidence, if not - then what? Such a small sample proves nothing.

I don't get it, you seem to be trying to say that black is white. The patterns (and I'm talking about wheel patterns) are only "tracks in the sand" from which you can determine direction of movement. The physics of the ball is not the only way in which you can find an advantage.

Ask Herb. 

[Boo_Ray]

I agree with bliss... sorry ryan08 what happened to you? you were nice guy and stuff... now you act like you know everything and somethimes it seems like you know nothing 

[ryan08]

You can detect both dealer signature and bias by looking at the number patterns

you said you can detect a dealer signature from number patterns, i gave you some numbers to show me, i asked for nothing more nothing less, i dont see what is wrong with that. if its too smaller sample then use a bigger one to show me.

@boo ray, i dont claim to know everything and i havent been playing this way that long, i just have a difference of opinion of what can be done and what cant, bliss says he can detect patterns to help him predict his next bet, so if he can he should have no problem proving it.

[bliss]

bliss says he can detect patterns to help him predict his next bet, so if he can he should have no problem proving it.

Ryan, you may think this is a cop-out, so be it, but I'm not going down this road, because it leads nowhere. As I pointed out in my previous post, taking your list of numbers and demonstrating one way or the other that they lead to a successful prediction will add nothing to the argument. The existence of patterns which can be exploited can not be "proved" any more than the success of VB can be proved. The best you can do is provide evidence for your conclusion:

Prediction

A prediction draws a conclusion about a future individual from a past sample.

    Proportion Q of observed members of group G have had attribute A.
    Therefore:
    There is a probability corresponding to Q that other members of group G will have attribute A when next observed.

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductive_reasoning

If you want documented evidence, take a look at Mr oops' "quick signature" files on his web site. There are various methods of DS, Spino has developed another which you can find on the forum.

As to detecting bias, there are many ways of doing it - no physics necessary. This was posted on GG a few years ago by Snowman:

Ok, here's the quick script for winning using biased wheel play if you aren't trained to
quickly defect spot the biased wheels. For starters, forget everything you have ever read
about or know about biased wheels, because most of it is wrong.
If you follow these procedures, you will win most of the time. The problem is, most people
can't stay focused long enough to do it. If you can stay focused, then you can win some
hefty amounts of money.
This is only an entry level method. If you want to move to the next level, you have to learn
how to defect spot the biased wheels, otherwise you will likely waste too much time and
money tracking random wheels. Defect spotting enables you to quickly determine which
wheels are biased and which wheels to ignore.
If you can't defect spot the wheels, then simply track everything in sight. This is a great
way to get your feet wet. Start with low stakes only. Playing like this at higher units will
occasionally get you banned.
1. Track every wheel in sight to 7,500 spins. Have friends and family help you track, or hire
help and run it like a business. ( log any identifying markings on each wheel so that you
can identify it and track it's movement around the casino.)
2. Play every number that is in excess of 2 standard deviations using the modified Kelly
Criterion. If you don't have at least one number above 3 or more standard deviations, and
at least one or two others above 2 standard deviations, then move on to the next wheel. If
you have several numbers close to or slightly above 2. standard deviations, then pick the
top seven.
Do not bet more than 10 numbers. The more numbers you bet, the greater the random
fluctuations will likely be. Betting more numbers will increase the severity of random draw
downs during play. You can't win if you're betting half the wheel!! You don't have to be on
every biased number. The numbers on which you bet just have to be biased.
3. The day of play, pre-track your wheel for 350+ spins to correlate with previous data prior
to play. Peak pick your play day. Any number that appeared bias prior to play that is not
close to, or above expectation prior to play should be dropped. If the data doesn't
correlate, try another day.
4. If you want the strongest possible chance of a positive outcome, then play for nothing
less than 12-16 hours straight. You have to allow for a significantly large enough volume of
spins for your edge to dominate the random fluctuations of the game. Simply betting for an
hour or two isn't sufficient. ( For example: + or - 2.5 x square root of N represents your
ave. fluctuations most of the time. N= the total number of spins played) Overtime you will
learn when favorable playing conditions are occurring or fading and you will want to adjust
your playing style accordingly.
Bet using the following bank to bet calculation:
Edge/expectancy x the chance of losing your bet at each spin. Multiply this amount times
your bankroll each spin. (I added the additional step to the Kelly criterion to reduce the
over betting that can occur when the player is betting on several biased numbers).
For example: if your edge is 15% on five biased numbers, then you would calculate your
bet as follows.
.15 x (35-4)/5 x 31/36= .02
If your starting bankroll is 500 units, then multiply the .02 times 500, then divide by 5 to
determine how much to bet on each of your five numbers. 500x.02/5= 2 units on each of
your five biased numbers.
I've just told you how to make a fortune at the game. Will anyone try it? Not likely. 99.999%
of the people lack the discipline and the focus to win. Most people will be distracted by the
WDL's of the forums. If anyone does have the focus, then email me your data, and I'll run it
through the different statistical tests for you for free. If you are into tracking wheels and
want to take things to the next level, then feel free to email me. I enjoy discretely talking
about the wheels and exploiting the different design flaws.
Based on my experience, here is a quick note on sectors: Most individual biased numbers
are part of a larger biased section. Many of the individual biased numbers that appear to
be biased, are what we call temporary local biased numbers (TLB) within a true biased
section.
When playing a biased section, it is often more effective to play in between wheel cleaning
cycles when the TLB numbers are strongest. This will enable you to play fewer numbers
within the overall biased section at a higher edge. Playing to many numbers within a
biased section will exacerbate any random drawdowns that you may experience during
biased wheel play. Since wheels are most frequently cleaned just before the weekend,
look for your TLBs within biased sections on a Wed. or Thursday. On Fridays and
Sat**days, look for the TLB to weaken and to spread over the larger biased section.
A quick note on mirror bias: It's not your imagination, it occurs. Because of the many
different factors that cause bias, you will frequently find patterns to the bias on the wheel.
The type of pattern can sometimes quickly indicate the wheel defect. You may find a bias
that appears every five pockets on some wheels, or one that appears 20 pockets away on
another wheel. Some patterns are even just mere reflections of a bias defect that may
exist on the opposite side of a wheel head.
-Snowman


p.s. Snowman = Herb 

[geoff365]

"Many of the individual biased numbers that appear to be biased, are what we call temporary local biased numbers (TLB) within a true biased section".

Just less than than 20/1 for about 5 hours of spins. And remember the 1st 2nd 3rd down to lets say the 6th-9th number will do.

Get in early.

Cheers.

[geoff365]

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