The Mirror-Game for Even Chances

[winkel]

@Lucky Strike

I said I hate progressions. 

Your way to make the Fibonacci slow is surely a good idea.

What I always learned with slow progressions is this:
We are trying to win in the next few spins. We don´t wanna play a progression a long run.
Is the progression slow I minimize my wins.
Is the progression too fast I wll be caught at the limits (the banks or my bankrolls)

But e.g.
If you compare the Martingale and the Grand Martingale
The GM is only 1 step shorter than the Martingale but multiplies your wins by the numbers of steps played.

It is always the St-Petersburg-Paradoxon:
People are always too frightend even if they see a good chance.

With the Martingales you can survive about 12 steps (In Germany 3500 times Table-minimum)
With the GrandMartingale 11 steps
With the Fibo you can survive 18 steps!

Code Select Expand

step Fibo Mg GMg
1 1 1 1
2 1 2 3
3 2 4 7
4 3 8 15
5 5 16 31
6 8 32 63
7 13 64 127
8 21 128 255
9 34 256 511
10 55 512 1023
11 89 1024 2047
12 144 2048 4095
13 233 4096
14 377
15 610
16 987
17 1597
18 2584
19 4181


br
winkel

[TwoCatSam]

winkel

I've spent a little time looking at your Fibo progression:

first table: normal Fibonacci

[table=,]
WL   ,   Fibo   ,   pays   ,   win/Los   ,   tot
W   ,   1   ,   2   ,   1   ,   1
W   ,   1   ,   2   ,   1   ,   2
L   ,   2   ,   0   ,   -2   ,   0
L   ,   3   ,   0   ,   -3   ,   -3
W   ,   5   ,   10   ,   5   ,   2
L   ,   8   ,   0   ,   -8   ,   -6
L   ,   13   ,   0   ,   -13   ,   -19
W   ,   21   ,   42   ,   21   ,   2
L   ,   34   ,   0   ,   -34   ,   -32
W   ,   55   ,   110   ,   55   ,   23
W   ,   89   ,   178   ,   89   ,   112
W   ,   1   ,   2   ,   1   ,   113
W   ,   1   ,   2   ,   1   ,   114
W   ,   2   ,   4   ,   2   ,   116
L   ,   3   ,   0   ,   -3   ,   113
L   ,   5   ,   0   ,   -5   ,   108
W   ,   8   ,   16   ,   8   ,   116
L   ,   13   ,   0   ,   -13   ,   103
L   ,   21   ,   0   ,   -21   ,   82
W   ,   34   ,   68   ,   34   ,   116
W   ,   55   ,   110   ,   55   ,   171
L   ,   1   ,   0   ,   -1   ,   170
L   ,   1   ,   0   ,   -1   ,   169
L   ,   2   ,   0   ,   -2   ,   167
W   ,   3   ,   6   ,   3   ,   170
L   ,   5   ,   0   ,   -5   ,   165
W   ,   8   ,   16   ,   8   ,   173
L   ,   13   ,   0   ,   -13   ,   160
L   ,   21   ,   0   ,   -21   ,   139
W   ,   34   ,   68   ,   34   ,   173
L   ,   55   ,   0   ,   -55   ,   118
L   ,   89   ,   0   ,   -89   ,   29
W   ,   144   ,   288   ,   144   ,   173
W   ,   233   ,   466   ,   233   ,   406
   ,      ,      ,      ,   
   ,   984   ,   1390   ,   406   ,   
[/table]
total win 406 units this is a return of 41,26%


Would it be correct to say that--win or loose--you always go until you get WW and then restart?

Sam

[lucky_strike]

Hi Winkel and all.

Winkel would like to hear your opinion, do you think its better to aim for 1 or 2 wins in a row?

Cheers Lucky Strike

[winkel]

[table=,]WL   ,   Fibo   ,   pays   ,   win/Los   ,   tot
   ,      ,      ,      ,   
L   ,   1   ,   0   ,   -1   ,   -1
L   ,   1   ,   0   ,   -1   ,   -2
L   ,   2   ,   0   ,   -2   ,   -4
W   ,   3   ,   6   ,   3   ,   -1
W   ,   5   ,   10   ,   5   ,   4
[/table]

as you see, we need a double win to get a plus using the Fibo.

The system guarantees a double when we catch a mirror.

-win or lose--you always go until you get WW and then restart?

Hi TCS mainly yes!

There are special start-rules:

Imagine we start with a winning-streak
w
w
w
w
w

if we stop here at a double and restart we would always win just 1 unit per spin
So we play and progress in the win til one L

[table=,]WL   ,   Fibo   ,   pays   ,   win/Los   ,   tot
   ,      ,      ,      ,   
W   ,   1   ,   2   ,   1   ,   1
W   ,   1   ,   2   ,   1   ,   2
W   ,   2   ,   4   ,   2   ,   4
W   ,   3   ,   6   ,   3   ,   7
W   ,   5   ,   10   ,   5   ,   12
L   ,   8   ,   0   ,   -8   ,   4

[/table]

there we have to decide if we go on with progression or we stop with a +4

[winkel]

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