Questions about the game of Baccarat

[Arteinvivo]

According to you, since there are more Banks than Players at the game of Baccarat, does it mean we have more singles on the player's side than on the bank's side ?

Ex.

B
B
B
   P <- single
B
B
   P
B
B
B
B
   P
B
   P

[Arteinvivo]

As a corrolary, do you have more singles than runs on the player's side ?

My tests show yes we have.

[Arteinvivo]

I have processed enough data to conclude yes we have more singles of 'Player' than runs of 'Player'. It's not 50/50 as we would be led to believe.

This might offer an opportunity to the player who prefers to target the "maturity of chances" opportunities. For example, if you see a huge number of singles on the Player's side then you might begin to target runs on this maturing side by trying to hit the second P of an emerging run.

[Arteinvivo]

I have processed 30000 hands of Baccarat and here are the results:

For Banker:
Nb of Runs:   3784
Nb of Singles:   3779

For Player:
Nb of Runs:   3654
Nb of Singles:   3910

Conclusion, there are more singles on Player, and Bank has more Runs than Player also the Nb of runs vs nb of singles on bank is 50/50 while it is not on the player's side.

[gizmotron]

I have processed 30000 hands of Baccarat and here are the results:

Conclusion, there are more singles on Player, and Bank has more Runs than Player also the Nb of runs vs nb of singles on bank is 50/50 while it is not on the player's side.

That's very interesting. But why is it happening? More importantly, why is it just being discovered now.

[win1win2]

Hi Arte,Giz.

<But why is it happening?>

Its the edge of Banker against the Player;

just a short e.g.


Banker and Player in Baccarat Statstic


Lets start with drawing the 3rd card is an [eight]


IF banker after 2h  has 3 points

Player is o-5 point have to draw a card :
if card is "eight" banker not allow to draw.

[a] if player 0 draws an "eight"  = 8  so winner

if player 1 draws an "eight"  = 9 so winner

[c] if player 2 draws an "eight"  = 0  so lose

[d] if player 3 draws an "eight" = 1  so lose

[e] if player 4 draws an "eight" = 2  so lose

[f] if player 5 draws an "eight" = 3  so  Tie


Player third card is 8 when Banker is at 3 Points the probablities are:

2 win hands and 3 lose hands 1 tie hand

33.33% chance to win:   50%chance of losing : 16% chance of  Tie.


Now if Banker has 4. 5. 6. 7 points

Player is o-5 point have to draw a card so if card is "eight" banker not allow to draw.

[a] if player 0 draws an "eight" = 8  so win  = 8 against 4

if player 1 draws an "eight" = 9  so win  = 9 against 4

[c] if player 2 draws an "eight" = 0  so lose = 0 against 4

[d] if player 3 draws an "eight" = 1  so lose = 1 against 4

[e] if player 4 draws an "eight" = 2  so lose = 2 against 4

[f] if player 5 draws an "eight" = 3  so lose = 3 against 4


Player third card is 8 when Banker is at "4" "5" "6" "7" Points the probabilities are:

2 win hands and 4 lose hands

33.33% chance to win:   66 % chance of losing :



Now if Banker has 4. 5. 6. 7 points

Player is o-5 point have to draw a card so if card is "nine" banker not allow to draw.

[a] if player 0 draws a "nine" = 9  so win  = 8 against 4

if player 1 draws a "nine" = 0  so win  = 9 against 4

[c] if player 2 draws a "nine" = 1  so lose = 0 against 4

[d] if player 3 draws a "nine" = 2  so lose = 1 against 4

[e] if player 4 draws a "nine" = 3  so lose = 2 against 4

[f] if player 5 draws a "nine" = 4  so tie  = 4 against 4


Player third card is "9" when Banker is at "4" "5" "6" "7" Points the probabilities are:

2 win hands:...........  3 lose hands:.................1 tie hand

33.33% chance to win:....50% % chance of losing:.......16% chance of tie:



Now if Banker has 4. 5. 6. 7 points

Player is o-5 point have to draw a card so if card is "10" banker not allow to draw.

[a] if player 0 draws a "ten" = 0  so lose  = 0 against 4

if player 1 draws a "ten" = 1  so lose  = 1 against 4

[c] if player 2 draws a "ten" = 2  so lose  = 2 against 4

[d] if player 3 draws a "ten" = 3  so lose  = 3 against 4

[e] if player 4 draws a "ten" = 4  so tie   = 4 against 4 : tie hand

[f] if player 5 draws a "ten" = 5  so win   = 5 against 4

[g] if player 5 draws a "ten" = 5  so tie   = 5 against 5 : tie hand

Player third card is "10" when Banker is at "4" "5" "6" "7" Points the probabilities are:

1 win hands:  4 lose hands:   2 tie hand

33.33% chance to win:   50% % chance of losing : 16% chance of tie:

Cheers

Win1win2

[Arteinvivo]

The exact probability for player to win is exactly 49.317563%. This is not new stuff. Except for the number of runs vs singles which is rarely mentionned.

[bliss]

Streaks in Baccarat:

nolinks://wizardofodds.com/baccarat/baccaratapx4.html

[Arteinvivo]

Thanks Bliss, i knew about this table.



Suppose i had tried to exploit runs on the P side by targeting the second P in an emerging run, i would have lost 256 units.

If i would have tried to exploit singles on the P side by targeting the OLD when P hit then i would have hit B 3910 times correctly and missed 3654 times for a profit of 256 units but if we take the commission into consideration then i would have had to pay 3910/20 = 195.20 in commission so in all 256-195.20 is my profit, ie, 60.50 units.

[Arteinvivo]

Once again, if i had tried to exploit runs on the P side by targeting the second P in an emerging run, i would have lost 39 units.

If i would have tried to exploit singles on the P side by targeting the OLD when P hit then i would have hit B 790 times correctly and missed 751 times for a profit of 39 units but if we take the commission into consideration then i would have had to pay 790/20 = 39.5 units in commission so in all 39 - 39.5 is my profit, ie, -0.50 units only.

This means, by simply using a basic scheme we can see how tough it is for the casino to take your money.

[Arteinvivo]

My expectation is that there will be more singles observed on the P side and more runs on the B side.

[Worm]

this is interesting, I will try it out and report back

[Arteinvivo]

this is interesting, I will try it out and report back

Don't expect to break the house but over the long term it should help you to protect your capital in an optimal way. I am presently testing my pattern capturing techniques on patterns of Runs vs Singles. Ex. of such a pattern : "RSSS" this just means Run followed by three Singles. I'll come back with this other possibility later on.

[Worm]

Just a small test..

Dublinbet live 12jan 2009
Playing one shoe 25-30 min
(ignoring ties)
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
---->+3.5 units flatbetting banker 1 unit

Worm

[Worm]

Still having fun testing this idea..getting some slow and nice results.
Just a question..what does the long term say of banker outcome of 3 or more in a streak if you compare to player.
Just if it is a good idea to bet B after BB? rubbish? prob 

[Worm]

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