Applying Newton's Laws to Roulette

[Mr_Bee]

This is just a theory....

Imagine the croupier is a robot with an automatic arm that has the same speed and force.

If,
1) the speed of the wheel is constant ...by making sure the zero or green pocket goes around in every 3 second

And,
2) the throw of the ball by the croupier is constant....by using the same force and releasing it from the same sector.

Then,
3) the ball should land in the same sector of the wheel each time, depending on when the ball was release, right?

So....

If the wheel spin in a perfect revolution of 3 second each time it passes the marked area, and the croupier always have a constant stroke, using the same force and releasing the ball when the green pocket is at the marked area, then the ball should land in the same sector of the wheel each time it spins the ball, right? Since the ball is traveling in the same speed and has the same force as the previous stroke, and the wheel is kept at a constant revolution, then each spin should be very similar to the previous.

I think the problem with dealer/croupier trying to aim the ball at double zero or zero and MISS is the fact that 1) he does not use the same force as the previous throw, 2) he did not release the ball from the same area (like from the zero as the marked point), and 3) he did not kept the wheel running in the same speed. If all these were kept at a constant, we can ASSUME that each spin is almost the same as the previous and the ball will land at or near the same area of the wheel.

Here's a scenario. There's a lot of activity at the table. The wheel's speed slows down (cause the croupier is busy stacking chip). He picks up the ball and throw it really hard from number 20 instead of releasing it from the green pocket(zero). By observing this, you can almost guarantee that the ball will not be in your favor if you are betting that the ball will land in the same sector of the wheel as the previous.

On the next spin, there's less activity at the table so the croupier has more time to fool around. He accelerate the speed of the wheel. Grabs the ball. Throw it from number 3 or near that area as hard as he can. The ball is traveling very fast and the wheel is spinning really fast. What do you do? just don't bet.

This is why dealer signature is very important.

[Shorty]

Dealer signature is much better off on a table with a dominant ball drop. What happens when the ball hits a deflector?

[Kelly]

If in fact the dealer is in a monotom rythm, and that happens, and the wheel has a dominant drop zone the ball will to some extend have a limited bounce lenght. All numbers and pocket distances will at some point be reached, but certain bounce lenghts will be favoured because the speed of the ball and the mass and weight is the same from spin to spin.  If the wheel is sometimes 5 pockets faster or 5 pockets slower, you can move the scatter distribution 5 pockets forwards or backwards. But you will see that even if the drop zone is 1/3 of the wheel, there will still be a huge zone where the ball simply won`t bounce to because the position of the wheel when the ball drops. A 3 number sector that has a 3/37 possibility  will often jump to 5 or 6/37 even though you are only risking 3 units. Like i said, all pocket distances from kollision with the diamond can and will be reached, but the excel shows clearly that the distribution is very uneven.



And another ball type:



The diagrams also shows that if you are a little picky when you find your wheel there is a huge advantage in finding a ball with a consistant bounce.

[winkel]

Hi Kelly,

If you are watching for the wheel and the distances and repetitions of distances. why don´t you put the chart in wheel order?

br
winkel

[Kelly]

Hi Winkel
Im not sure what you mean by wheel order. If we take the Teflon ball chart, there is an average peak bounce of 21 pockets  (28 out of 500. That is well above the math expectation of 13.) The number ring is not important, because its the actual ball bounce which is recorded. I guess i could set it up as a round wheel chart and actually it might look nice, but i think most can comprehend it though.

And you are right, if the wheel is absoloutely level,  a good dealers signature would only yield a small advantage because the ball would drop from all sides and the scatter, although very uneven distributed, would have its peak moved all the way round on the wheel in relation to the release point.

A semitilted wheel is easyer to find and sometimes its enough to get some sort of peak with particular wheel speeds. I know Kaisan disagrees on dealers signature, in fact its his mantra, and from 1 spin to spin 2 he IS right, only, he forgets that if instead of comparing 2 - 3 spins, we can compare 100 spins and the uneven distribution becomes mathematicly sounder and sounder as the spin sample grows.

[Herb]

Nice graphics Kelly.


Unless you have experience tracking dominant drops on several wheels, then you will likely not understand the dynamics of what is being discussed by Kelly.   However, a little research will help you catch up on the basics of VB.  VB is a fascinating and worth while subject to study.


-Herb

[Kelly]

Herbs post didn`t offend me or anyone else the slightest, don`t know whats going on.

[VLSroulette]

Herbs post didn`t offend me or anyone else the slightest, don`t know whats going on.

Kelly, you posts as usual very constructive and informative.

Keep up the great contributions coming! 

Your friend,
Victor

[winkel]

Sorry Kelly,

I thought you were refering to the numbers, but you are refering to the distances. My misunderstanding, sorry,

br
winkel

[TwoCatSam]

........about my deleting his post, I'll put the damn thing back!

Kelly,

Your graphics are great as usual.

You may have to explain it in simpler terms though, so the novices can understand the mechanics of a dominant drop.

In Kelly's examples above, he's referring to wheels that possess a dominant ball drop.  To find such a drop you will likely need to examine more than one wheel.  If your experiences are limited, than chances are, it will be tough to imagine such a wheel. Smiley

-Herb

To the forum members who did not read my post:

I merely posted an observation.  I have tested VB more than Herb would every like to believe.  In my mind, the jury is still out--I simply don't know.  That does not mean I am one who needs things explained in "simpler" terms.  I do not consider myself a "novice" at the game of roulette in any fashion.  I found the post mean-spirited and un-called-for.  Had any one of you asked me to delete a post by Herb which insulted you, I would have.

It has come down to this--perhaps we should take a poll--does Herb get to sit back on the side lines and throw rocks at anyone--Mr Chips--who tries to teach, test and find a winning system?  Is this what we want in a forum?  You could sum up the man's entire posts with three words: it won't work!  Hell, nothing works until someone makes it work!

So Lucky Strike--are you happy now?  Herb, are you happy now?  Is everyone happy?

Herb, if you're not happy perhaps you could explain to me in "simpler" terms what it would take.

Sam

[Herb]

Geez,

Can we stop this already?

Let's focus on beating the casino instead.

-Herb

[TwoCatSam]

Herb

Yes, we can stop this.  You leave me alone and I'll extend the same courtesy to you. 

Sam

[Kelly]

Comment to  Bee`s post.

You can with relatively small effort track the wheel speed and divide the tracking into wheel speeds. Instead of covering all spins in one big bowl of pocket distances, you might wanna narrow the selection down to the most common wheel speed or the wheel speed that gives the most consistent results.

If you are not capable of judging the wheel speed with your eyes, you can use a counting method which aint perfect but yields better results than just mixing all speeds.

1. Notice the release number when the ball is released.

2. While focusing on where the release number is moving on the number ring, at the same time count the ball revoloutions until you have some 5 or 6  full ball revoloutions. How many you choose is not impotant you just have to settle for a specific amount and stick to that. This is multi tasking with your eyes and a bit diffycult for the beginner.

3. Note where your release number is at that point.

4. Imagine that in 3 out of 4 spins your release number is located between 9 and 3 oclock after 5 revoloutions. 

5. Skip all other spins, and make subcategorys for the remaining speeds that fills number 4.

6. Make 2 maybe even 3 categoris for the spins wheree the release number is between 9 and 3 o clock. One where the release number is between 9 and 12 o clock and one where the release number is between 12 and 3 o clock.

You now have 2 categories where the ball and wheel speed in relation to each other is in a relatively small range because otherwise the release number would simply not be anywhere near the 2 categorys.

After some tracking, you might have a peak 9 numbers from release number with one categori and a peak of 18 numbers from release number with the second category. Once you know that, you simply notice those two numbers/peaks at the start of the spin and decide which ones to play when you know which category they belong to. This part is also a diffycult part for the beginners, because you might have 3 numbers to remember until the 5th revoloution. And also their location. If you play where you can have the dealer place sector bets, it doesn`t matter though. Otherwise you might wanna learn the number ring by heart.

The downturn is that you can`t place your bet until you have seen 5 ball revoloutions.

For starters, you might wanna settle for just one larger category like from 9 o clock to 3 o clock. You have still removed quite a few spins with extra ordinaere wheel or ball speeds.

This is not VB although it might sound a bit technical but merely an advanced sort of dealers signature where you have narrowed the net you capture your data.

And remember, there is something called vis-a-vis betting. If you have many pocket distances like 2, 20, 4, 18, 20, 17, 1, you will see that you have almost 1/2 a wheel between those pocket distances. Now there is a physical explanation for that and BOTH distances is playable and actually SHOULD be played at the same time  as you might have some extreme peaks directly across from each other. Its a mistake to believe that the dealers signature is random because the peaks has ~18 pockets between them, has a physical explanation that has something  to do with the wheel/scatter/tilt not the dealer.

Also even if you are not technically spot on when you place your bets, it is still alright because your bets will still be in a high probability zone and have a larger probability.

[Kelly]

Quick practical example.

We say that you remove 33% of all spins when only playing speeds where the release number is between 9 o clock and 3 o clock at the 5th ball revoloution.

You have a peak  9 numbers or simply 1/4 of a wheel to the left of the release number at the time the dealer releases the ball.

1. Dealer releases the ball at zero.
2. In that split second you either know that you have 34, 1/4 a wheel away or have a quick glance which number is there.
3. You now remember 34 while you follow zero and count the ball as it passes the dealer: 1..2...3....4.......5 when at the 5th revolution you will now see wether this spin has qualified or not.
4. If zero (releasenumber) is in the upper half of the wheel (9 o clock to 3 o clock) you simply bet 34  and the neighbours. How many neighbours depends on your tracking and the width of your peak.
5. You collect your winnings. (hopefully)

If the 5th ball rev. is unsuitable for some reason, you might wanna take the 4th or the 6th. It doesn`t matter, as long as all spins is tracked after the same amount of ball revoloutions.

The scatter excel above shows the ball bounce measured from simply the first obstruction which is "a diamond". Of course we wants this diamond to be the same diamond from spin to spin because if we can predict the rotor position when the ball strikes our diamond we can almost relate our winnings to the excel sheet. So a tiltet wheel really helps.

[Bebediktus]

Sometimes it is not so easy to see release number when the ball is released. I himself try to see number in oposite side when ball is passing diamond ( ball makes half rotation ). After some number of revolutions say 5 notice which number is here now and placed bets.

[Bebediktus]

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