Why you shouldn't wait for "X events in a row"

[purple]

Hi Insider,
I believe you but somehow my experience in live casinos has been different. I've been playing for over ten years and like everyone else have made my share of mistakes but have learnt from them. For some years now I will lose about 2 -3 sessions max out of 10 and because I have set myself stop loss and win points so my winnings are more than my losses. This I can control! I know that these results  might be luck on my part and fly in the face of maths expectation of a negative game but now I'm confident of winning and use it. No I'm not a millionaire!!
How do I bet? Well there are many ways. One of my favourites is to always cover the 0 and 3-4 lines simultaneously based on what the dealer is shooting, another to either play the hottest or coldest number and couple of neighbouring numbers for a limited number of spins. Or to bet on mirror patterns of what is happening with a small progression eg. If I see RRBBRB I will then play BRBBRR ( I know ... there are another 63 of these one could choose from) and bet with a Fibonacci progression, or I may go for three parleys in a row. I wouldn't call these systems mechanical because I'm awake and respond to what is happening at the table. I don't play mindlessly as this in my experience is a sure way to lose very quickly. Like any game you get better at it the more you play it. But knowing at all times how much you're up or down is very important, also setting win and stop targets of 20% -30% of your BR and having a reserve  of at least 20 times the minimal bet is crucial -although you never use it all-.  Always leave when you feel you're riding the crest of the wave and don't even look back. When you feel you're sinking stop. Yes I know its all highly subjective I hear you say and I agree it is! And I always remember roulette=gambling=risk so I must play responsibly.
You say that you wrote of another method other than DS or VB to win. Can you point me towards it please? Thanks.

[Lanky]

purple

What a Good Post Mate.

You would have thought I had written that Cobber.

We both have some of the same principles when We play.

Good On Ya Mate.

Lanky.

[alarian]

*Sigh* Look...
Play whatever you want...
Just don't wait for something to happen before you start betting.
Start doing whatever it is you're doing when you sit right down at the table.
It won't matter at all. You'll just play your sessions quicker.
If you lose 2 out of 10 sessions then that's because of everything else in your strategy.
Waiting for a bet trigger that's not related to you actually predicting the table is just fooling yourself!

If you believe in magic trends and stuff, go play Baccarat instead  

I'm only trying to help you
Your friend
Alarian

[TwoCatSam]

Alarian

When you find a person whose been doing a particular thing and making money at it--well, maybe he knows something you don't. .

Take Lanky for example.  He uses a progression and his bankroll just goes up and up.  I won't tell him progressions don't work; just that they usually don't work for me.  Mr J calls himself a progression freak.  Victor uses a progression. 

Me?  I once did quite well waiting for five things to happen, then betting against the trend and using a progression.  I did quite well betting two dozens and two columns at the same time using no progression.  This was using the VLS Lw Methodology. 

Whatever you do to win, I'm happy for you. 

Sam

[alarian]

Start straight away without waiting for something on the table layout to happen.

Either way, I'm not going to discuss this any further...
Selective memory is something I can't discuss with. 

Your friend...
Alarian

[TwoCatSam]

Alarian

A word of friendly advice.  You are bordering on insulting quite a few people on this forum.

I don't know what your point is in all this.  Track4 is the be-all and end-all of G.U.T. software.  You, nor anyone else, will ever write a more useful program for tracking the G.U.T.  Take my word for it, when you have spent 100 or more hours staring at that software, you can see the graphs in your head.  You don't need an output in multi-color.

You are coming across with a haughty attitude, as if you are speaking to the slobbering ignorant. 

Your comment about "selective memory" is totally out of place unless you can testify in court, under oath, that I have selected portions of tests to report on.  You might want to find an thread called "TwoCat takes a Whoopin'" and see that I do report losses. 

We are always willing and ready to learn from anyone.  I don't know of anyone on this forum who appreciates a condescending attitude.  This is exactly what you're doing with your posts. 

You can be stopped!

Sam

[TwoCatSam]

Let me make this further clear, if I haven't already.  The following is a quote by a friend of mine.  I will not name him/her.

"I am not against Progressions.
However I like it to be a Controlled Progression.
I try to win 2.5% of My starting bank and in the last 2 Years alone have multiplied that by 350%."

350%!  Using a progression.

I have stated as part of my own dictatorial policy that I will not stand by and let one member disparage another.  You are disrespecting and disparaging a person whom I would accept as teacher and mentor any day of the week.  I would follow him/her to a casino, give them a thousand dollars of my own money, and sit back and take notes.

You are insulting someone I care for and respect. 

You're entitled to your opinion; you are not entitled to tacitly call people liars or insinuate they are lying. 

And don't lecture winkel.  You can't hold a candle to this man.

I don't like you very much right now.....

Sam

[MATTJONO]

  to you twocatsam.

all I need to know is that iboba and many others on this forum are winning regualy alot more wins than losses using progression type bets.

it may take you years to find the right for yourself however this site and all the help from the members it will help us losing money in the future and begin winning money in the next 5 years instead of in 35years when you have had alot of bad experiences.

and winkel to me is a GENIUS.

mattjono

[alarian]

Please read this carefully

The Subject is more to draw attention than to state a fact or a matter of strong opinion.

I'm not alltogether against progressions, but those who are new to roulette are also usually fooled by the Gambler's Fallacy as well as using Martingale Progression or something similar...

I usually use a few step progression myself, but no 140 step progression on singles or 90 step on splits or anything like that...
The subject I really want to draw attention to is the fact that many people wait for an event to increase their chances when that's really just a waste of time.

I can't stress this enough and I feel so infinitely sorry for those who waste their time doing that.

This is also sort of a contradiction since I'm "studying" the G.U.T. but that's somewhat based on a theory of certainties and I find I'm learning alot about other stuff checking it out as well...

Sam...
I don't understand where all your aggression is coming from but it hurts me..
I haven't been able to modify my posts for some days and I was going to change this subject to "Why you shouldn't WAIT before betting".
I don't understand what GUT software comes in all of this either...

This post is intended to learn people who are clueless about Roulette as a whole and make them think twice before rushing head first into some martingale scam feeling high and mighty until the first hit comes.
It all might seem very logical that if a red hasn't come for 20 spins, it has to come now for sure!

Grinding is a proper method to win at roulette... But that's way more advanced than what the people that this post is intended for can possibly have enough experience or knowledge to be using.

I have no ill intentions, I'm a friend... Keep saying it 
I'm feeling quite misunderstood and very hurt.

Your friend...
Alarian

[TwoCatSam]

Alarian

As I have said many times...we are all free to express our opinions on this forum. 

Frankly--my aggression comes from your use of the term "selective memory".  You don't know me well enough to make such a statement about me.  You haven't seen the books I've kept over the years for the play I've done.

I spent five years at the horse races listening to people telling about all their wins and forgetting their losses.  I fully understand the person with a "selective memory" is a total loser.

Now do you get it?

Sam

[alarian]

And don't lecture winkel.

I don't see where I've done this...

[alarian]

Alarian

As I have said many times...we are all free to express our opinions on this forum. 

Frankly--my aggression comes from your use of the term "selective memory".  You don't know me well enough to make such a statement about me.  You haven't seen the books I've kept over the years for the play I've done.

I spent five years at the horse races listening to people telling about all their wins and forgetting their losses.  I fully understand the person with a "selective memory" is a total loser.

Now do you get it?

Sam

If you thought that comment was aimed at you then I understand you fully...
It wasn't, I have nothing to hold against you in that way.
When I'm shocked about a comment someone makes, I usually ask the person what he means...
I felt prematurely judged because of, either my lack of ability to make myself clear... Or prejudice of others

I've had a discussion with an 80+ years old man Called "Reimond Bergwall" for the last couple of weeks...
He's called "The Roulette Professor" in Sweden. He states that if 8 reds come in a row you've got a higher chance of winning if you bet on black... All the logic, statistics, clinical tests or whatever else proof there might be in the world isn't going to change his opinion on this matter.

Logic contradicts his experiences so there's no point in discussing it since there won't be a dialogue, there'll only be arguments that either side isn't willing to listen to.

Every human being has a selective memory, there's nothing bad about that... We all defend our experiences to the very end, experiences are real and noone can take them away from us.

I take it that those who are experienced enough grinders shouldn't take it upon themselves to feel insulted or anything like that...
Your experience proves your point and I'm not here to argue that...

Like I've said, I want to clarify to those who are new and get tempted that if you just run head first into a progression scam you're going to lose your money and this is why...
To many, all these terms are new and easy to mix up...


Advanced progression methods are a different thing alltogether... But who's going to come across them before the tons upon tons of other easy accessible GO BE RICH $200 PER NIGHT NOW IT'S SUPER COME!!!

Fibonacci, Dàlmbert, Clever positive progression.... Good tools if used correctly
I always use a divisor plan combined with the Kelly Criterion when I play Blackjack
If I'm going to play a shorter session then I'll just use a Fibonacci progression

[Mr J]

"This post is intended to learn people who are clueless about Roulette" --- Am I in this group? I hope not. Over the years I have come close to playing ALMOST ALL types of betting techniques. I did not say all methods mind you Alarian but all types of betting. My form of progressions should not be lumped in with >>> 8 reds came up now lets start a marty on black. I use a long and heavy duty progression on anywhere from 1-4 numbers max and am up quite nice over the years. I have paid thousands of dollars towards back bills (personal) from profits of roulette. I now owe thousands MORE for medical bills which I hope to pay off with.....you guessed it, roulette funds. I can withstand losing 9 of my progressions and still be ahead. Not all "furthest back" and not all progressions should be grouped together. Yes I know...."its all the same", blah blah blah, save the speach. I appreciate your efforts here and yes, my way of playing is dangerous (I never denied that) but the payoffs are GREAT! I lost around 7K before I finally got my s**t together. Trial and error I say. Learn from mistakes. More important, learn from other peoples mistakes, it saves lots of headaches.   Ken

[alarian]

I don't see why people who knows what they're doing still have post here...
J: No I don't think you're one of those
Poit <-- From my experiences with him on Steve's forum... yes

[Mr J]

"I don't see why people who knows what they're doing still have post here" --- Why not? I asked a question about ball changes, no big deal. I have answered questions. I have given opinions. I have asked for opinions. Newer players seem lost and I am MORE THAN HAPPY to give out advice. I would never tell a newbie to go get a bank loan for 6K so he can play heavy progressions. Its not for everyone, especially someone who gets nervous easily at a table. Me giving advice to newer players, I bring it down a couple notches. Thats why "Im here".   Not to mention, making great friends and chatting about things non related to gambling.  Ken

[Mr J]

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