System FACTS. Like it or not.

[Herb]

Guidelines for Evaluating Systems  This information is from, "The Mathematics of Gambling", by Dr. Edward Thorp.

The general principles we have discussed apply, they guarentee that systems can not give the player an advantage.
To help you reject systems, here are conditions which guarantee that a system is worthless:

1. Each individual bet in the game has a negative expectation
This makes any series of bets have a negative expectation

2.There is a maximum limit to the size of any possible game.
(This rules out systems like the no-limit doubling up system.)

3. The results of any one play of the game do not "influence" the results of any other play of the game.
(Thus, in roulette, we assume that the chances are equally likely for all of the numbers on each and every future spin, regardless of the results of past spins.)

4. There is a minimum allowed size for any bet. (This is necessary for the technical steps in the mathematical proof.  Most people would take for granted that there is such a minimum, namely some multiple of the smallest monetary unit.)

Under these conditions, it is a mathematical fact that every possible gambling system is worthless in the following ways:

1. Any series of bets has negative expectation
2. This expectation is the (negative) sum of the expectations of the individual bets.
3. If the player continues to bet, his total loss divided by his total action will tend to get closer and closer to his expected loss divided by his total action.
4. If the player continues to bet it is almost certain that he will:
    (a) be a loser;
    (b) eventually stay a loser forever, and so never again break even;
    (c) eventually lose his entire bankroll, no matter how large it was.
The above information is from, "The Mathematics of Gambling". 


The above information does not apply to strategies such as:

B ased wheels or various types of visual ballistics.

-Herb

[Ulysses]

Herb you sound like a fun guy to be around with and I don't agree with you or the Doctor on this point.

1. Each individual bet in the game has a negative expectation
This makes any series of bets have a negative expectation

Come to the RNG side herb, we have fortune cookies.[smiley=beer.gif]

[Boo_Ray]

Herb you sound like a fun guy to be around with and I don't agree with you or the Doctor on this point.

Come to the RNG side herb, we have fortune cookies.[smiley=beer.gif]

you don't agree.. But herb is right

give us some reasons why don't you agree?

[Ulysses]

you don't agree.. But herb is right

give us some reasons why don't you agree?

Yes probability states the odds are against you based on a million spins or so, giving the house a 2.7% edge. Hence the word probability (probabale, probably) not certainty not absolute. RNG is a completely different ball game. You cannot apply the same math to it. It is not true random number generation it is pseudo, an attemt at mimicing real randomness. The algorithm is flawed with recursion. Playing real live roulette is based purely on chance alone. Whereas with RNG I have the confidence of applying methods that I can rely on that keep on working and have done for 3 yrs. The only way you lose playing any form of gambling is not knowing when to quit. So like it or not, that is my opinion. 

[Jakkalsdraai]

RNG is classified as a slot machine and not a table game. All slot machines have RNG in them anyway. As you will know these slots are set to pay out let's say 95%-97,5%.

So by law these RNG roulette games are allowed to be programmed to pay out 95%-97,5% as with your standard slots simply because of their classification. In other words, you WILL loose. And yes they are fair according to the law and they comply with the law aimed at slot machines and hell, they might even be the closest to real random up to a point......as is normal slot machines. Yet they are governed to paying out less than receiving.........now mate is that truly random?

Cheers
Jakk

[Ulysses]

So by law these RNG roulette games are allowed to be programmed to pay out 95%-97,5% as with your standard slots simply because of their classification.

Online table games like roulette are not programmed to pay out a set amount. They are tested for randomness only. The game odds give the expected payout. Get it right mate.

[Jakkalsdraai]

That is just that they are not table games. There is no ball, no wheel, and no dealer..........same rng as in slots.

Cheers
Jakk

[ryan08]

Yes probability states the odds are against you based on a million spins or so, giving the house a 2.7% edge. Hence the word probability (probabale, probably) not certainty not absolute. RNG is a completely different ball game. You cannot apply the same math to it. It is not true random number generation it is pseudo, an attemt at mimicing real randomness. The algorithm is flawed with recursion. Playing real live roulette is based purely on chance alone. Whereas with RNG I have the confidence of applying methods that I can rely on that keep on working and have done for 3 yrs. The only way you lose playing any form of gambling is not knowing when to quit. So like it or not, that is my opinion.

RNG is a completely different ball game yes but not for the reasons you state. the randomness of live roulette depends on the physical aspects of the world around it, eg- the dealer/maintainance of the equipment etc. over a million spins you will find that it is more common to get deviations from the 2.7% HE than to actually see that 2.7%, this is because poorly maintained equipment/DS may affect how often different numbers can hit, the simplest example is bias. if you find a good bias over a million spins one number could have a 5% edge for the player while the one next to it has a 5% HE.

RNG is different however because it is programmed to stick to the percentages so over a million spins again you wouldnt find a bias at all, every number will have the statistical 2.7% HE it is supposed to. so unless you know how to beat the algorythem its more or less impossible to beat an RNG.

in conclusion you will have a better chance to win on a live wheel than an RNG program, and from my experience the only way to make good money is to get an edge over the house, even a 0.5% positive edge is better than trying to beat a 2.7% HE.

[Ulysses]

Why does everyone on the dark side go to such great lengths to try and distort the truth of RNG. I bet you are all in to conspiracy theories and your favourite one is the Fox news documentary that America never landed on the moon because the flag seemed to be waving. Haha, you guys crack me up.

RNG is different however because it is programmed to stick to the percentages so over a million spins again you wouldn't find a bias at all, every number will have the statistical 2.7% HE it is supposed to.

Wrong wrong wrong, It isn't programmed to stick to the percentage. I have already set the record straight with jackals

Online table games like roulette are not programmed to pay out a set amount. They are tested for randomness only. The game odds give the expected payout. Get it right mate.  

Now thats cleared up I will answer the rest of your question. I don't dispute you may find a bias on real wheels, though without using technology to measure the ball and wheel speed like the Euodomons did in the 70's your predictions will be crude at best. But I value your attempts at this, go for it.

Let this be the end of your prejudices and propaganda regards RNG. Resistance is futile.[smiley=beer.gif]

[Marven]

Hi Ulysses,

Wrong wrong wrong, It isn't programmed to stick to the percentage.

Prove it. I'm all ears.

I don't dispute you may find a bias on real wheels, though without using technology to measure the ball and wheel speed like the Euodomons did in the 70's your predictions will be crude at best.

Says who?
Bias and VB are powerful stuff if done properly.
And no, you don't need to bring a computer with you to the casino if you are trained enough to apply the proper techniques.

Who's prejudiced now?

Cheers mate, [smiley=beer.gif]
Marven

[Ulysses]

Prove it. I'm all ears.

nolinks://nolinks.32red.com/banking/payout-reviews-at-32red-casino.html

nolinks://tilacasino.com/fairgaming.html

Still not convinced Marven?

Look guys, you know more about Visual ballistics than I. And I know more about RNG than you. Peace.

[Boo_Ray]

@Ulysses

stefanio has some fortune cookies for you if you can realy beat RNG

and you will prove us 2

[Ulysses]

Sure, ask your freind Stephanio to post his system here. Will review it and return the favour.

[Boo_Ray]

Sure, ask your freind Stephanio to post his system here. Will review it and return the favour.

no no... if you can beat 1 milion RNG spins he will give you 10 000$

[Marven]

@Ullysses, sorry for this slight misunderstanding mate, but when I said "prove it" I was talking about proving that you can beat RNG's using a playable method, so we can all see if it's really possible.

Otherwise, the percentages thing would be of no use, and all claims will remain only claims, and that's what most people do when it comes to beating RNG's.

First, we should make a distinction between RNG's, and Online Casino RNG's.

RNG's are computer programs that are designed to mimic randomness.
Online casino RNG's are supposedly the same, but I personally do NOT trust these. Call me a "conspiracy theorist", but that's what I believe in based on my experience and other people's (whom I know) experiences. I believe those are nothing but a scam which only shows that online casinos are mostly a modern form of legally accepted unethical business.

With that said, and after taking into consideration the accepted and proven fact that you can't overcome the negative edge of a purely random (non-physical) game, I would be VERY surprised if anyone can prove that he can beat RNG (by 'beat' I of course mean: gain a long term edge over the house), let alone Online Casino RNG's.

Look at this post reply by Alarian (who have worked for Playtech for years):

"I've read many comments in various forums that very clearly warn against using RNG casinos because results are not truly random. They advise using live online casinos instead." -esoito

Alarian's reply:

I've worked as a programmer for Playtech, one of the (surprisingly few) companies that develops a certified Online Casino Software.
I can assure you that the above statement is absolutely true. There is however one way to abuse this, as I like to call it, Unethical Business Practice by Online Casinos.
Other developer's certified software that I can confirm have this property are Chartwell, Cryptologic and RTG.
I am going to disclose the exact method of doing this in my Millionaire School at my Personal Section when I get there.
In order to abuse this optimally you will need a roulette bot since it requires inhuman speed. I am done developing a bot for this purpose.

A bot for any other purpose regarding RNG, that I can think of, is merely a doomsday tool that will help you bankrupt as fast as possible.

Let's see if his bot can do it. At least the man is willing to SHOW something, not just drop a couple of posts saying "You're all wrong, I can beat RNG's", and leaves it like that.

With that said, I (quite unsurprisingly) haven't seen anybody actually winning consistently from online casino RNG's so far. This, coupled with the maths and commonsense leaves me no choice but to straightly ask:

"If you think it's possible, prove it!"

(PS. Others would say "put up or shut up" but I try to avoid saying that. )

Regards,
Marven

[Marven]

-