Millionaire School: Lesson 2 - Bonus Bagging

[alarian]

Heya!

Recap:
Bonus Bagging is when you deposit money to a Casino, let's say $200 to get a bonus.
An average bonus is 100% of your deposited money up to some sum... This means you get $200 bonus ($400 total bankroll).
You then meet a Wagering requirement, let's say 40 times your Bonus = $8000.
Playing mathematically perfect Basic Strategy Blackjack will minimize the house edge at around 0,5%.
We can now wager the $8000, expecting to lose only a part of our Bonus and cash the rest out.
You can read about Basic Blackjack Strategy here: nolinks://nolinks.wizardofodds.com


[highlight]Lesson 2 - Bonus Bagging[/highlight]
This is really fun. I get to do what I always hoped someone else would!
"Why the hell do they need to sell books when they can just publish it free online!? They're so rich already!"

From a long-term and somewhat philosophical view, I 'm glad they do/did... If everyone does this, noone will be able to do it...
Metaphorically... "These rides have a limited amount of seats and the cue can't be too long"

Going to take a smoke then I 'll finish this lesson...
OK smoke's done. That baby on my shoulder is now 14 months by the way and I love him very much.

let's get on with it. If you haven't read lesson 1, please do so before reading this lesson as I won't repeat things that have been explained there.

There are bots that you can use for bonus bagging and I 'm designing one of my own because I don't like their prices.
One is called BJbot and you can find it at:
nolinks.bonusbots.com This is a really expensive one with crap interface. I don't recommend this one.

Another one is called Casibot:
nolinks.casibot.com This one comes in 3 variations. One trial bot which is free and works on some sites. The downside is that it only works 20 hands at a time. I made a little program that kept it going by restarting it after the 20 hands so that I could bag the bonuses and then buy the Premium version. This one costs £50 and works at many sites with good bonuses. You can then upgrade to the Deluxe version for another £50 (or buy the Deluxe right away for £100) which works on some more sites.
I never bought the Deluxe version because I was lucky and got a good bankroll to get me started for the next phase: Expanding your bankroll.

The last one I know about is called Q-Wager:
nolinks.qwager.com I haven't tried this one because I couldn't get the trial version to work so I can't either recommend it or give it thumbs down.

All these site have one thing in common. They give you a sense that you'll cash in tons of money without effort. This isn't entirely true. I did lose all my money on the first site I used the bot on because I didn't research this method enough and just clicked "Run".
They all focus on one pitch... Estimated Value (EV). This term is explained in Lesson 1.
What they don't tell you about is Standard Deviation. Even if you make a 10 million simulations test and it shows that you'll lose only a part of your Bonus (not your deposited money) this is still a Medium. Some games (generally 4-7%) will make you lose your money and some games (about 20%) will leave you with MORE money than what's expected. So let's say you do all the bonuses, you'll definitely gain cash, but you won't gain exactly the EV.
I didn't lose any more money and I actually went past the EV on all other sites. This is all because of my experience from working at Playtech.
Now... I don't recommend that you buy any of these programs just yet. If you're not in a real hurry and all of that... Test them all before you make your choice.

My vision is that there will be a reasonable enough demand for me to program a free bot which will work on all the sites with the highest EV and also provide it with functions that minimises the chance that you'll go under the EV and maximises the chance that you'll end up above it.

I can only speculate on the reason why the bot-providers above haven't refined their software in this way. But I think it's because it takes some extra time and their pitch is already strong enough and they're making a good profit as it is. Such a refinement would take time.

So first of all I want to see what you think about all of this.

Option 1

1.1
I 'll give away a free, fully functional bot dedicated to the most profitable casinos only, the aim being to get the bonus.

1.2
After your evaluation I will set the bot at a fixed price which probably will still be $39 but might be up to $59 depending on demand.
This will work on all the sites that the above programs work on and you'll be able to customize the bot to work on any other site you might find. One other feature that's missing is the more advanced functions that will raise your EV and I 'll explain these methods and in what way these functions will accomplish this for your evaluation.

1.3
This will be easily customised, it will be optimised for the best return possible, it will work for all other bonus offers at all other casinos AND also for casinos that come on stream in the future.


Option 2

2.1
I'll provide the free version that works on the most profitable casinos.

2.2
I don't go ahead with the 'advanced' version since there's no demand.

2.3
You play mathematically perfect Basic BJ Strategy manually OR buy one of the other commercial applications as required, at a higher price than I 'll be offering and with a lower return.

[highlight]It's all up to the lot of you.[/highlight]
I want the deal to be fair and that you should be able to go through Phase 1 for free.



The way to bag a bonus is to play a large number of hands in Blackjack putting down the lowest bet possible. This will in the example we've been using (Wagering Requirement of $8000) mean that we have to play 8000 hands!
The minimum bet is in almost all cases $1 and if it isn't, the expectancy that you'll lose your deposit goes up from a basic probability of about 7% to 20% at $2!!!
That's really not good and this is the case at Intercasino where the minimum bet is $2.

Historical Note
This was also the first casino I played using this method and that's where I lost my cash. This was a long time ago...
I got lucky and this was good since I would have dropped gambling otherwise and I wouldn't be here writing on these sections.
I actually got the cash back + another $700 tracking multiple inside bets using Martingale Progression
(again, this was a long time ago but in the next lesson I will explain that under very special circumstances isn't always a bad idea!!!  )
Don't get me wrong, please don't you ever use Martingale under any circumstances than this special one, which I haven't revealed yet! Definitely don't do it in an Online Casino!!

The reason we play 8000 hands of $1 instead of 800 hands of $10 is because of the Standard Deviation.
For those of you who don't know what Standard Deviation is:
When you have a statistical mean/middle value, Standard Deviation is a simple measure of the variability of the result. How does it vary along all the sampled results? A low Standard Deviation dictates that all the values are close to the same value (the mean), a high Standard Deviation means the results are more spread out.
If you set up a statistical simulation with the exact same circumstances that you're giong to play these 8000 hands. If you do that and simulate let's say 1 million rounds of 8000 hands and get a Standard Deviation of 130, then this means that your bankroll is most likely to end up between +$70 and +$330. However, if you play 800 hands of $1, based on those statistics you can assume that the deviation is the same since a larger sample is more accurate than a small one. This would mean that the spread is between -1270 and +1430... During the course of those 800 hands you'll most likely lose your $200 and your $200 deposited cash.

[highlight]Conclusion: Wager as low as possible to minimize the spread.[/highlight]

If there's no questions or suggestions for things to add to this lesson I say Stay tuned for lesson 3! - Online Casino's unethical Business Practice

Your friend
Alarian

[See_Jerek]

Hi Alarian,

I mentioned that the 1st roulette book that I bought ever touch on the subject of bonus bagging.Christopher Pawlicki's get the edge at roulette calls his bonus bagging method the infalliable roulette system.How he does it is based on a deposit of $1000 and $100 bonus

1. Bet $1 splitting the zeros
2. Bet $9 on red
3. Bet $9 on black

in a few hours of play you have a guaranted profit of $42 and you can 200 odd casinos offering this sort of same programme and you could bag a potient $8000.00 in 3 to 6 months depending how much time you play.

I also google a bit on this bonus bagging and some sites offer one time bonus while some offer monthly bonus,I guess with the use of a bot,we need to spend much time playing that often by using a bot to play.
However I do not believe some sites which claim they can meet the wagering conditions within 2 to 3 hours unless that's RNG black jack.

Just sharing some info

[See_Jerek]

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