Educated Guessing

[bombus]

There is an excellent book, published in 1971, written by successful big business CEO of the times, Patrick O'Neil-Dunne, where he takes a team of six (I think) players to a Macau casino to play and record a marathon roulette session for 30 days duration. Never done before, and probably not done since. They play around the clock in shifts only stopping for about 1 hour each day for wheel maintenance, and by the finish they have about 30,000 thoroughly recorded spins (printed and analysed in the back of the book, and worth the price right there). The team members are all given specific instructions on how to play each shift, and they all take turns with each approach. EC's, columns, cousins, sections, flat bets, martingales, etc. Patrick himself sits among them for extended shifts and plays a game purely based on educated guessing. He far and away out performs the rest of the team, and ends in substantial profit. It is a ripper of a book and everyone interested in beating roulette should get a copy, I treasure my 1st ed. hard back copy.

[gizmotron]

So here is another description of that book:

'Roulette for the Millions' (Chicago 1971), Patrick O'Neil-Dunne

"Back in April and May of 1971, the Englishman Patrick O'Neil-Dunne tested his own as well as other players roulette gambling strategies at a roulette marathon of 20,000 spins at roulette table number 14 in the casino in Macao - close to Hong Kong. With a staff of five, he wanted to test every recommended roulette system, including his own strategies that would prove that 'choices' play just as big a part in the results as do 'mathematical probabilities'.

No existing roulette gambling system did in fact give any return on the investment. For a long time he believed that a strategy where you bet on one column (12 numbers) would in fact work, but it too failed. His roulette gambling system was that he would first bet on a column when that column had not been hit for 6 spins in a row (called a 'sleeping column'), then he would play that column with the traditional Martingale system betting - first 1-2-4-8-16-34 through 6 spins. If he had not won by then, he would abandon the progression and start all over again - as keeping playing according to the Martingale progression would become too expensive.

O'Neil looked at the six spins as a tennis match - and for days his crew of gamblers did not loose many fights. The had made a big profit from this system. So perhaps this technique will work well in the short run - in the long run all the roulette gambling strategies will fail.

During the 20,000 spins - only a single time on every 100 spins did a 50/50 bet lose more then 8 times in a row (Example: The ball lands on a red number 8 times in a row). Such an event is a nasty experience for the Martingale and progression players in general.

O'Neil himself was a fan of betting on 'sleeping numbers'. That is numbers that has not been hit for a long period of time. He believed that once such a sleeping number was hit - it would soon be hit again. He had success with covering such sleeping numbers, especially the ending numbers like: 6-16-26-36. If these numbers had not been hit for 36 spins he would cover those numbers with chips.

After 31 days of roulette gambling and testing, the crew of roulette players ended up with a net profit of $191,148 - plus plenty of tips to the staff working at the casino. The bet sizes had been from $1 up to $500 per chip. Had O'Neil found the 'truth' about roulette? Most likely not. O'Neil himself claimed only to have been lucky.

But even being lucky can take a lot of hard work and planning. In the book 'Roulette for the Millions' (Chicago 1971), you can read all about how he planed the 31 days of roulette gambling and how he used those statistics after the gambling marathon was over. "

[bombus]

Read the book for yourselves and you will see that gizmo's supplied description is a very poor one, and wide of the mark. Or, don't read the book if you expect to find a holy grail within the pages.

The bulk of the team played the standard bets, O'Neil mixed his play up with educated guess work.

[gizmotron]

Patrick himself sits among them for extended shifts and plays a game purely based on educated guessing. He far and away out performs the rest of the team, and ends in substantial profit.

So does he discribe what he does with his educated guessing?

[bombus]

Well yes he attempts to describe it, and he was dead against using convoluted mathematics. He was adamant that to be successful you had to go with the flow, and not be rigidly fixed to one notion.

[gizmotron]

Well yes he attempts to describe it, and he was dead against using convoluted mathematics. He was adamant that to be successful you had to go with the flow, and not be rigidly fixed to one notion.

That's because no fixed techniques continuously work. They flow in and out of working and not working and back again with differing degrees of quality.

So can you elaborate more on the system that he used to do educated betting with?

[Spike]

then he would play that column with the traditional Martingale system betting - first 1-2-4-8-16-34 through 6 spins.>>>

This is educated guessing? This is doomed to failure.

>>For a long time he believed that a strategy where you bet on one column (12 numbers) would in fact work>>

LOL! What he had was 4th grade 'educated guessing'. If beating roulette was as simple as that, it would have been clobbered centuries ago. The fact that he thought that about the columns tells me this guy was a rank amateur..

[bombus]

then he would play that column with the traditional Martingale system betting - first 1-2-4-8-16-34 through 6 spins.>>>

This is educated guessing? This is doomed to failure.

>>For a long time he believed that a strategy where you bet on one column (12 numbers) would in fact work>>

LOL! What he had was 4th grade 'educated guessing'. If beating roulette was as simple as that, it would have been clobbered centuries ago. The fact that he thought that about the columns tells me this guy was a rank amateur..

These quotes are from a rank amateur book critic with little relevent subject knowledge, not from the book, silly.

You read 'em book then we make 'em pow wow.

[gizmotron]

These quotes are from a rank amateur book critic with little relevent subject knowledge, not from the book, silly.

You read 'em book then we make 'em pow wow.

I won't spend the price for getting one of many used versions available from collectors if all he has is guessing on  sleeper numbers that might have reawakened. He says he was lucky and that was the only reason for the win. If that's true then he is saying that educated guessing is only getting lucky for 20,000 spins. What about you giving us a quote from the book yourself. Make it a quote that is relevant to what you see is educated guessing, please.

[Spike]

 

These quotes are from a rank amateur book critic>>

Rank or not, he's not making up the fact that the guy was disappointed that betting the columns with a Marty didn't work, he read it in the book.

Anybody who's been playing for even a short time knows a Marty doesn't work, its absolutely the worst progression there is.

[sebix]

Hi guys!

I am really interested in this 'educated guessing' thread. I believe that there is some sense in this. After all, all we have to overcome is the house edge with our bet selection. With a good money management, all we need is slightly more winners than the mathematics predicts and we are winning our session.

Sometimes, when I play EC bets that I choose with my own "randomness", I end up having much more losers than winners (I expect to have 50-50 in the beginning and that is why I just bet without any deeper thinking); when this happens, I wonder why do I have 7 winners and 18 losers in a 25 spin session (and no zeros, so no house edge in my session); if I would have played the total opposite...it would have been another story. And one way to have this another story is to guess better, to develop my intuition.

I think you all have seen David Blaine's and Chris Angel's performances at the roulette wheel. I agree that Chris Angel's performance could be a scam, but anyways, I think we must take the idea from them. I think we have to connect in some way our subconscious to the game and the educated guessing will arise from our trained minds.

Thank you,
sebix

[potatochips]

I believe that there is some sense in this

When you get the total picture would you mind telling us what it is as i am sure this pseudo discussion about randomness will lead you nowhere specially with these two experts leading the class. AS we say here, it's a dead end in my opinion.

[gizmotron]

When you get the total picture would you mind telling us what it is as I am sure this pseudo discussion about randomness will lead you nowhere specially with these two experts leading the class. AS we say here, it's a dead end in my opinion.

Please qualify your statement that this is a "pseudo discussion" about randomness. You need your opinion validated and possibly peer reviewed. If you are wrong then a retraction is required. If you have no interest in this topic then stay out of it. There is nothing random about your continual disruption here. Do you plan on enlightening anyone or are you just a child that just learned how to troll on the internet?

[bombus]

What about you giving us a quote from the book yourself. Make it a quote that is relevant to what you see is educated guessing, please.

Ok, Gizmo.

I have instructed the butler to find the book, but it will take some time because he is quite old, bless his heart, and the library is vast.

Cheers.[smiley=beer.gif]

[bombus]

What about you giving us a quote from the book yourself. Make it a quote that is relevant to what you see is educated guessing, please.

All jokes aside, the book is stowed away in a box somewhere in my storage facility. I will eventually find it, and when I do I will find a few quotes to post.

[bombus]

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