How to DECREASE the House Edge (Quite Possibly)

[Advantage.Player]

***How to DECREASE the House Edge and set it to what YOU want it to be (Quite Possibly)***

Hello forum,

Just thought I'd chime in with my latest development (thoughts) in roulette.

This originally branched of my study of Lw as a result of some frustration!

You see, when playing Lw (no matter the bet) at some time you will see a pattern like this (for example).

wwLwwLwLnolinks

So now I'd be betting for one "w" the next "L" (hoping that the pattern is Lw).

But a fair few times I'd get this.

wwLwwLwLnolinksLL

Meaning I'd lose my bet which kind of annoyed me because I got my charting right...but I lost  :-? Due to an "L" after the first "L", not the anticipated "w".

Despite this, Lw is still a very profitable strategy however this idea lead me to question Lw methods.

*****

I decided not to play Lw and to just chose an amount of numbers and to play them at what ever time I felt like - simple enough!

And it turned out that I won all my bets (however I did cover 24 numbers – as if I had played Lw on the last 2 dozens)

So after more thinking, later I figured this (Its hard to explain what I want to say but here it goes...fingers crossed)

If we can get a bet (or a small system*) to play, and play it randomly, would it be "random enough" to miss the L's in the equivalent Lw registry? Meaning we'd win at that time?

*Bet the last dozen to show wit ha 5 step progression and zero insurance bet

*****

Like this...

Say I chose to use the above system.

And each time it won I'd chart a "w" and each time it lost I'd chart an "L" - I purposely made the progression shortish so that it doesn't get silly and over board (not to mention extensive AND expensive!).

So now if you played this you will find the Lw patterns generated are something like...

LnolinksnolinksnolinksLnolinksLnolinkswwLnolinksnolinkswwLnolinksnolinksw

In other words you get a loss expected every ~9 wins [0.115 is the probability of losing (take note that I used a "insurance bet" on zero at all times)].

Now this Lw registry can be played as a system on its own - just bet the "w's" to come after establishing a pattern - as I've already posted somewhere on the systems Message Board...

BUT this still will encounter the odd un-planned "L" like say I was betting for Lw and LL came.

So by now you all are wondering what's this lower house edge crap his on about?

Well I'm getting there.

So as above my Lw registry was

LnolinksnolinksnolinksLnolinksLnolinkswwLnolinksnolinkswwLnolinksnolinkswwLnolinks

And my idea before was to randomly place bets along the course of play as a way to compare it to Lw and see if Lw did in fact make me profit better.

Well here it is.

Say "0's" are the times I did not bet and "X's" is the time I bet (note the following is COMPLETELY RANDOM and not "Made to Fit"!)

OOOOXOOOOOOXOOOXOOOOOOOOOXOOOOOXOOOOOXOOOOX

I'll call this a "RPR" – Random Play Registry

Now both registries have approx 43ish events recorded and by inspection you will see that NONE of the X (the time I played the system*) will line up with a L (time the system* lost)!

And note that I did NOT edit the 2 series - they are simply what happened while playing.

So now I'm nearing my decrease house edge stuff...

Well after seeing this little wonder work I thought, what WAS the probability of me choosing a RPR sequence where the X matched with a L from an equivalent Lw registry?

So I figured this...

The probability of the system* played losing was 0.115 and the chance of me playing on that time was

(Amount of "X's" in RPR) / (Total "O's" and "X's" in RPR)

Which here it was 7/43 which equals 0.189

So now the probability of the RPR "X's" lining up with the Lw registry "L's" (Hence losing!) is 0.189 X 0.115 = 0.0217

That's a 2.17 % chance of losing the system*

Note that: Playing when I come across an X has a chance for losing as ALL the times you play you stand a chance to lose - keep this in mind if you get stuck on playing the X is potentially losing.

So now that's great; 2.17% chance of losing...

And you may hear "I can get that too by covering ~36/37 numbers [this has a chance of losing as 2.7%]" however there's a but.

...BUT when covering 36 out of 37 numbers you will still have a greater chance of losing (2.7% apposed to 2.17%) AND you wont make profit from winning as the payouts are not "fair".

So essentially I have lowered my chance of loss with out covering more numbers (as the more numbers covered means the less chance you have of losing).

And lowering your chance of loss while keeping payouts the same (and the number of numbers covered) is practically lowering the house edge!

Also I said before about changing the "House Edge" – Sure, just change the amount of spins you will play for, out of the total amount.

Before I chose to play for 7 (random times) out of the possible 43. If I played for 1 out of the 43 the chance of loss (or in other words the chance of an "L" lining up with my "X") is 0.115 X 1/43 which is 0.267%. Here the chance of loss has lowered while the numbers covered had not changed – hence the house edge is practically lowered.

So now all we have to do is play for X amount of spins from Y samples with our system* and ta da

But how can we know when to "randomly" choose to play?

I have an answer. Say you want to "make" your chance of loss 2% now ask yourself...

What times 0.115 gives us 0.02...simple, its 0.173 (0.02/0.115).

So now what bet gives us a 0.173 chance of winning? That would be ~6/37.

*Next post*

[Advantage.Player]

So heres how I generate my chart of when to bet (RPR). Find any sector on the roulette wheel that's 6 number in size (6 because its what I calculated before).

If a number lands in this sector we write a "X" and if it does not we write a "O". Now using past numbers that you recorded fill out the chart...as below.

So say your chosen (by random) sector is 16, 24, 5, 10, 23, 8 and our past numbers from the wheel we WANT TO PLAY ON are.

32
13  
26
32  
27  
36  
5  
16    
26
1    
15  
11
34  
18    
4  
29  
10
27  
32    
28
34    
2
17
36    
20  
20  
24
5    
8  
11
5  
21    
10
23    
24  
6
5    
2
3    
33  
15  
8  
20
7  

Now our "Random Play Registry" (RPR) will look like...

OOOOOOXXOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOXXXOXOOXXOXOOOOXOO

Now all we do is play our system* in virtual for every "O" and for real for every "X".

The first on the list is "O", se we play our system* until it wins, or it loses (runs out of progression). Then we cross of the "O" and move to the next one on the list. Eventually you will get to an "X" which then you will play the system for real!

Obviously we will make a matter of units profit (15 – 25ish; depending on your RPR size) so the units are large (25 – 50 bucks each, however our progression goes for 5 steps and if used Fibonacci – I recommend this – you would need 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 5 chips...so 12units. So I would take 24 as you may encounter a loss).

After testing this method a few times it worked out about to that after 1 hour playing it would make around $600 playing $25 chips.

I'm not going to say – Here's the holy whatever grail; Enjoy. But more a message of feel free to test and develop (if you can understand what I'm on about – sorry it's hard to say all this in away it makes (complete) sense.

I talked to my dad about it and we sat their for 15 mins trying to just explain and talk to each other about it lol).

*****

Heres to make this a little better (understanding the concept/theory)

Heres a formula for the chance of you losing...

(Chance of losing) X (Chance of playing) = (Chance of Loss)

Heres a example of a guy playing dozens, flatbet, ALL the time...

(67.7%) X (100%) = 67.7% (obviously expected)

But heres how I figure it. The (Chance of playing) number is a multiplier. The higher to 1 it is, the higher the chance of loss – or the higher chance of an "X" matching with an "L" from the equivalent Lw registry for our system.

So if you played 25% of the time – say 25 out of 100 possibilities and you played the above system mention before, your chance of loss is...

11.5% X 25% which gives us 2.88% of losing (and we achieved this not from increasing bet area (hence lowering payout) but by choosing when to play from our already established RPR.

Heres one more lol!

Chance of losing on EC is ~48% and you stayed home, 0% chace of playing...

48% X 0% = 0% chance of losing haha

*****

IF you should unfortunately lose, as my experience with Lw registries with the afore mentioned system*, I do the following.

After a loss (-12 units) you can revert to a recovery plan. Lanky's six-point divisor is great or you can do this. As experience shows me getting 2 consecutive losses using the system* is very rare so after a loss I post pone my RPR and non-stop play the system* until I am where I was before encountered the loss (profit wise).

Finally, that is from me; and feel free to test!

PS – Kinda weird but I've noticed that it takes around twice as long to discover "something new" in roulette than it did before. And then it'll take twice as long as last time to find something new after this time...and so on!

Given this, It'll be a Months time at least till something new (and decent!) comes up (for me) lol! At least I have time to test!

PPS – Man this thing is 1,742 words long!

[hermes]

1,724 words or how many and still complicated? What about to play virtually last dozen progression of 5 and mark the OOOOLX and after one loss bet for real, say $ 100. If you lose chart virtually again and than bet after one loss again $ 100 because you get paid 2:1.. To get more chances to bet do the same with Columns.
Now I make you weird to understand. We are 50/50.
Cheers Hermes

[Advantage.Player]

Well thats what you basically do when you play Lw on a "system" (as I've already posted twice - once in a separate thread and again some where in this thread )

Previously: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1201600387

And from My first post on this page...

"Now this Lw registry can be played as a system on its own - just bet the "w's" to come after establishing a pattern - as I've already posted somewhere on the systems Message Board..."

[Advantage.Player]

The bets are a system.

You are basically finding the right place/time to play a small system. The system can either be play the last hit dozen with a 5 step progression OR play the last 2 dozens with a 2 step progression. This is a thing you kind of will have to decide on the day because you will need to look at the last few outcomes and determine which one is hitting best (either the last 2 dozen or the last dozen).

Once this is decided you chose which system to play and this is what you play as your bet.

For the 2 step progression on 2 dozens i use this...

1 unit on each dozen; then the next step is 3 units on each dozen. So like this 1 - 1 and then 3 - 3

For the 5 step progression i use the Fibonacci sequence of 1, 1, 2, 3, 5.

When ever i played this method i aimed for around a 3% chance of loss and this was done by playing around 27% of spins.

So this means if we set our self a "session" of 50 spins, we would chose any 13 to 14 times to play (randomly).

Now to generate the OX pattern to find out when to play we (in this case) choose a sector of the wheel (any sector) which is 10 numbers in size. so grab a picture of the wheel and mark out your 10 number sector. Now we must record 50 spins (fun, fun, fun).

So now we use our recorded spins like this.

Go through the numbers in order written down and compare them with the picture of the wheel. If a number lands in our sector write down an X and if it doesn't land in our sector write down an O.

So after that you will get a pattern full of X's and O's (more O's than X's though).

Now to play we start at the first symbol in the O and X pattern.

If its an O we PRETEND to play the system (as chosen from above - so either last hit dozen or last 2 dozens). Now the signal to move onto the next symbol in the pattern is if either the system lost (in pretend mode) or if it won (in pretend mode). This is what you do to the O's.

Now...when you come across an X you play the system for real - until you win once or lose once.

And you work your way through the OX pattern like this.

Ill give you a demo here.

I want to play for 10 spins (short demo) and i get my picture of the wheel and mark out ANY 10 number sector.

My sector is the numbers including and between 1 and 28 (So they are 1, 20, 14, 31, 9, 22 ,18, 29, 7, 28).

And ill record 10 numbers...because i want to play for 10 games...

28
3  
34  
27    
2  
33  
4  
14
6  
7

Now I will compare them to my sector of the wheel chosen.

I chose the sector 1, 20, 14, 31, 9, 22 ,18, 29, 7, 28 and the first number is 28.

28 is in the sector so I put down a X (current registry is X)

The next number is 3

3 is not in the sector so i put down a O (current registry is XO)

The next number is 34

34 is not in the sector so I put down a O (Current registry is XOO)

Now I continue this till I use all the numbers (10 in this case).

So my registry at the end of these 10 numbers will be XOOOOOOXOX

Now I will play the XO registry.

The first entry is an X so I immediately play the system (for the examples sake ill play last 2 dozens with a 2 step progression - as this is a bit safer than last dozen wit ha 5 step progression).

Last 2 dozens from above numbers is 1st and 2nd dozen (numbers were 7, 6, 14 - so the last 2 different dozens were 1st and 2nd dozen). So I will play these 2 with a 2 step progression.

14      We won +1 profit – move onto next symbol in OX pattern.

Next pattern is an O so we pretend to play.

16      Pretend game won – move onto next symbol.

Next symbol is an O so its still pretend.

20      Pretend game won – move onto next symbol.

Next symbol is an O so its still pretend.

29      First step in progression lost, play last 2 dozens with the next step in the progression.

24      We won – but this is in pretend so we just move onto the next symbol.

Next symbol is an O so its still pretend.

8       First step in progression lost, play last 2 dozens with the next step in the progression.

1      We won – but this is in pretend so we just move onto the next symbol.

Next symbol is an O so its still pretend.

4      Pretend game won – move onto next symbol.

Next symbol is an O so its still pretend.

8      Pretend game won – move onto next symbol.

Next symbol is an X so we play for real on last 2 dozens (1st and 2nd dozen).

8      We won +1 profit (so far +2) – move onto next symbol in OX pattern.  

Next symbol is an O so its still pretend.

22      Pretend game won – move onto next symbol.

Next symbol is an X so we play for real on last 2 dozens (1st and 2nd)
     
3      We won +1 profit (so far +3) – move onto next symbol in OX pattern.      

We've reached the end of our OX series and made 3 units profit and didn't lose once!!!

Obviously we need large   units (I use $25 units normally but some times $50 units).

So heres some math (lol sorry cant resist  ) we expected (mathematically) to play around 3 game out of 10 (which is what happened) so if we played for 50 games we would probably make 15 units (most likely more; trust me).

Just a side note – If you should happen to lose I pause my OX series and constantly play the system (which ever one I chose) until I make up for my losses. Then once made up, I continue my OX series.

Hopes this helps – if you need any more explaining just ask  

[Advantage.Player]

Your Exactly Right  

Yeah waiting is a bit of a problem, in the mean time (and especially if i have lots to wait) i play the even chances and play trends. I'm not quite sure what else i could do. However waiting a bit is worth it as every time ive tested this method i always win and waiting i see is a small price to play for what i so far can say a "sure fire" method.

Any way good luck!  

[Jakkalsdraai]

Hey Advantage,  [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Thanx for the post. [smiley=dankk2.gif]
I've been playing around with skipping LWs as well with a 18 number system.

I had the same idea what I wanted to do but not a mathematical angle which basically causes me to hit and run a bit. I had the same idea cause when I tried LW's I also got burned with the occasional LLL etc. Make no mistake I'm not in any way suggesting that Victor and Lanly's LW-systems do not work. I know they do. Look at Lanky's track record. Excellent! Except for that, Vic and Lanky really made me think about Roulette and without realizing it motivated me to study Roulette as much as possible...(whether that is good or bad...Lol!!)

I also chose sectors on the wheel (3 x 6 numbers) and played them using LW's but skipping say 6-7 spins playing skipping 3-4 spins playing etc. I didn't know though why and I didn't jot down a fixed registry. Just been testing up to now. Like I say now that you have jotted it down and using maths to explain, I also understand it!

I'll give it a bash using your techniques.
Good work my friend
Cheers! [smiley=beer.gif]
Jakkalsdraai

[bloomone2002]

AP
I'm kinda new to the game and definitely this forum, however, i have a way of putting a twist on ideas so here goes. how about combining your concept with an smaller random XO sequence combination groups of 10, like with the Steve Morgan variations.

See the 8 random sequence combination of 10 each.
1) x o x x x o o o x x
2) o x x o o o o o x o
3) o x o x x o o x x o
4) x x x x x o x x x o
5) x x o x x o o o x x
6) o o o x x o o o x x
7) x o x x o o o o x o
o o o x o o x o o x


or a 7 random sequence combination eg. xxoxoox or oxxxoxx or xoxxxoo or xooooxo etc.

Use a 5 step positive progression and when your actual bet is a win, reset the progression. This modification, i think may have a few more random losses, however, the odds of lossing a random sequence pattern of of 7 would be 128:1.  If i used the 7 sequence combination, I would wait until i saw the first result within the sequence, then start my progression, so that my progression is a max of 5 steps. This allows more plays, with less spins to track, less prep work and minimum increase in losses. Hopefully, this is making sense. If anyone has any ideas about this, Im all ears. I think there are variations to this that one can try. For example: you can use the random sequence all the way through or when you get a win restart the sequence from the beginning or use a new random sequence or continue the combination from where it hit and add the same complete or new complete combination onto the end of it, and play until you reach your target win goal.

As I look at this a little further, I probably would use one of the 8 by 10 combinations, i have listed above, because if i wait for the first two results, then place my actual bets on the x attempts, then, i will have anywhere from 3 to 5 opportunities within the sequence for progression hits.

[bloomone2002]

AP,

Are you suggesting that one can execute this system with or without the 0 insurance bet? because in your initial explaination you encourage it, however in the explaination on reply 5 you did not give the progression information for an insurance bet. Also, you one is playing with a double 0 wheel, i guess you have to do a 0/00 insurance split

[bloomone2002]

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