kelly progression

[Boo_Ray]

Hey gang
This is very good progression, well maybe more a money management for playing numbers with mathematical advantage

full link to wikipedia: nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

kelly fully explained that on rouletteplace,

Kelly betting for single numbers.

It IS a bit complicated for most people in the beginning.

The formula goes like this:

f* = x%/A

x% = Your estimated edge
A = payout, usually 35 for single numbers

An easy example is if you have an estimated edge of 35% and is playing 1 single number.

f* = 35%/35 = 1% of your bankroll

Imagine your edge on each of the numbers in your 8 number pocket is 23 %, roughly 1:28. It also means you lose 7 and win on 1 number in the 8 pocket sector on a hit. Looks like this then:

(35 – 7)/8
A = 28/8 =  3.5  It will then give the formula
f* = 23%/ 3.5 = 6.5 %

So you will be betting 6.5% of your bankroll of say 5.000 =  325/8 = 40 on each number in a 8 pocket sector.

You can then make a list that looks like this all number rounded down to playable bet sizes because you probably can`t bet like 33.75:

5000 = 40 pr number (320 pr bet)
4680 = 35 pr number (280 pr bet)
4400 = 35 pr number (280 pr bet)
4120 = 30 pr number (240 pr bet)
3820 = 30 pr number (240 pr bet)
3580 = 30 pr number (240 pr bet)
Etc.........
Etc.........

If you keep an eye on your bankroll, you will pretty easy be able to figure out the bet size. Don`t forget to make the scale upwards too, in case you are winning. 

If you find the bet sizes too steep, you might  wanna bet only "1/2 a Kelly"

If you play a 5 number sector with a 10% edge, you should be able to remove the numbers and put your own into the equations and get the appropriate values.

I hope it is not wrong that I posted that here, because that is not my work

cya

[toby]

You need some condition that gives an edge to you such us VB, biased or an electronic devise.

In such conditions, KC wins mathematically.

There´s some KC modalities.

Anyone has the tools to compare flatbetting vs KC day by day?

It seems that it depends on the stream because I think it is not the same 10 misses followed by 10 losses than the oposite or a seesaw day.

[toby]

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